Views and indicators vary regarding the scenarios expected for the Egyptian economy during the new fiscal year, which began in July. Despite continuous official reassurances over recent months about the recovery of economic indicators that had suffered from a severe crisis for years, Egyptians remain fearful of further inflation and price increases.<\/p>\n
The Sixth Economic<\/a> Census, issued a few days ago by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), presented the most recent picture of Egypt\u2019s economic activity structure and the composition of enterprises. It showed shifts in sectoral distribution and business size. However, the census alone is insufficient to judge whether real recovery has occurred, according to observers. Monetary, fiscal, and external indicators\u2014which in practical terms represent real growth, inflation, budget deficit, and sources of foreign currency\u2014have shown tangible improvement since the beginning of 2024, though the economy remains fragile.<\/p>\n Although growth has returned to approach rates of 4% to 4.5% in fiscal year (2024\/2025), according to the latest census, and the overall annual inflation rate fell to 6.8% in December, the public deficit, public debt, external trade pressures, and reliance on exceptional inflows\u2014such as Gulf investments and land sale agreements\u2014still pose risks to sustainability and, according to observers, signal less optimistic prospects.<\/p>\n Observers who spoke to Zawia3 believe that dependence on external inflows\u2014whether in the form of loans, investments, or agreements with Gulf sovereign funds\u2014provides temporary relief but cannot serve as a long-term solution. Exceptional resources do not build a sustainable economy; they merely buy additional time to reorganize priorities. In contrast, the state needs genuine structural reform in its tax and fiscal management systems, aimed at broadening the tax base and stimulating production rather than consumption, while ensuring disciplined spending directed toward productive sectors such as industry, agriculture, and technology.<\/p>\n Egypt\u2019s Sovereign Fund Expands Power to Sell State Assets<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n