The Civil Democratic Movement held its second economic conference under the title “The Egyptian Economy and the Repercussions of the War on Iran,” on Wednesday, April 29, at the headquarters of the Conservative Party in the Garden City neighborhood of central Cairo.<\/p>\n
The conference<\/a> was attended by a number of party leaders from the Civil Movement, alongside a distinguished group of economic experts participating in the discussion panels \u2014 among them Dr. Gouda Abdel Khalek, former Minister of Finance and Professor of Economics at Cairo University; Dr. Hassan Al-Saddi, Professor of Finance Economics at the same university; political researcher Ilhami Al-Mirghani, member of the Civil Movement’s board of trustees; Dr. Ahmed Galal, former Minister of Finance; and Ammar Ali Hassan, writer and political researcher. Ahmed Al-Sayed Al-Naggar, former chairman of the board of Al-Ahram Foundation, sent his apologies for being unable to attend.<\/p>\n Also present was a cohort of political and party leaders, including Hamdeen Sabahi, member of the Civil Movement’s board of trustees; Wafaa Sabry, head of the Constitution Party; Sayed Al-Toukhy, head of the Karama Party; Akmal Qurtam, head of the Conservative Party; and MP Islam Akmal Qurtam, member of the House of Representatives for the Conservative Party.<\/p>\n During the conference sessions, participants put forward varying perspectives on diagnosing the current crisis \u2014 perspectives that converged on the need for a radical review of existing economic policies, with emphasis on the fact that excessive dependence on borrowing and the declining role of productive sectors have both contributed to mounting pressures on the economy and on citizens.<\/p>\n In this context, the Movement presented what it described as a “rescue prescription,” comprising a package of recommendations<\/a> aimed at striking a balance between urgent remedies and long-term structural reforms. This vision focused on easing the cost-of-living burden, supporting domestic production, reorienting public spending toward higher value-added sectors, and reinforcing food security and energy security.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n For his part, Walid Al-Ammari, spokesperson for the Civil Democratic Movement, says that the Movement’s second economic conference comes amid escalating tensions and war in the region, with its discussions focused on the impact of these developments on the Egyptian economy.<\/p>\n He explains, in his conversation with Zawia3, that the conference seeks to answer how the Egyptian economy reached a degree of fragility that causes it to be negatively affected by the mere outbreak of a regional conflict \u2014 and perhaps to a degree greater than the impact felt by countries geographically closer to the zones of military operations.<\/p>\n Al-Ammari notes that the Egyptian economy has already been affected by a number of repercussions linked to the regional situation, among them disruptions to navigation through Bab El-Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Suez Canal, alongside a decline in remittances from Egyptians working abroad \u2014 particularly in the Gulf states.<\/p>\n He adds that the Civil Movement has been warning, over the past ten years, about the trajectory of economic policies \u2014 which he considers in need of reorientation toward supporting sustainable development and strengthening productive sectors, both industrial and agricultural, in ways that contribute to providing stable sources of hard currency. He also criticized the continued reliance on borrowing and the direction of investments toward long-term projects \u2014 such as the real estate sector \u2014 that do not generate a direct and rapid return on citizens’ lives.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The Civil Movement’s media spokesperson also affirms that the Egyptian citizen bears the greatest burden of the outcomes of economic policies and the repercussions of regional crises, despite not being a party to them. He stresses that the Movement’s goal is to break this cycle and work to convey the voices of citizens to decision-makers in order to ease the cost-of-living burden.<\/p>\n \n Egypt’s 2027 Budget.. More Taxes, Less Protection<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n During the first session, Dr. Gouda Abdel Khalek criticized the economic policies that he said caused what he described as “economic fragility,” attributing it to a set of factors \u2014 foremost among them excessive dependence on hot money, alongside the liquidation of industrial entities, particularly large companies and factories. He described IMF programs as representing “national corruption.”<\/p>\n In contrast, Dr. Ahmed Galal believes the Egyptian economy exists in a “grey zone” \u2014 it still possesses important competitive assets, but at the same time suffers from structural imbalances in policy, particularly the bias of growth toward the real estate sector. He called for adopting a national program capable of overcoming crises through innovative policies, with the activation of the National Dialogue’s outputs as a roadmap for reform \u2014 affirming that overcoming the challenges remains possible if genuine political will exists and efforts are directed toward boosting production.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Speaking to Zawia3 on the sidelines of the conference, Dr. Gouda Abdel Khalek \u2014 former Minister of Finance and Professor of Economics at Cairo University \u2014 outlined the contours of a “prescription” for economic reform in five key points. Foremost among them was the need to incorporate food security and energy security within the concepts of national security, so that this concept is not limited to its military dimension but extends to encompass the economic and social dimensions as fundamental pillars of stability.<\/p>\n Abdel Khalek emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the value of the national currency against foreign currencies, clarifying that the intent is not to rigidly fix the exchange rate, but rather to achieve a degree of balance and flexibility that enables the currency to absorb shocks. He noted that the sharp decline in the value of the Egyptian pound in recent years \u2014 “from around 9 Egyptian pounds to the dollar to more than 50 Egyptian pounds ($1)” \u2014 has left economic, social, and perhaps political repercussions in its wake.<\/p>\n The economics professor called for strengthening economic self-reliance, considering it a necessity rather than merely an option. He noted that Egypt’s low savings rates \u2014 ranging between 3% and 10% \u2014 are incompatible with the economy’s capacities, pointing to the possibility of raising them to around 15\u201316% through appropriate policies. He also warned against uncontrolled expansion in imports, given what it represents in terms of resource drain and weakening of domestic productive capacity, stressing the need to rationalize production in ways that serve the national economy.<\/p>\n The former Minister of Finance and economics professor focused on the priority of achieving social justice as a constitutional principle, affirming that social protection cannot be a substitute for it. He considers that justice means providing equal opportunities for different segments of society \u2014 not adopting policies that impoverish broad swaths of the population and then attempting to compensate them afterward. In this context, he referred to his earlier proposal to rename the Ministry of Solidarity as the “Ministry of Social Justice,” to more clearly reflect this orientation.<\/p>\n \n During the second session, writer and political researcher Ammar Ali Hassan directed sharp criticism at current economic policies, describing the state of the Egyptian economy as “the economics of dependency” \u2014 which has transformed Egypt into a consumer market for foreign products. He noted that the crisis is not limited to economic indicators, but extends to a structural dysfunction represented in administrative corruption and the prioritization of loyalty over competence, which has led to the squandering of resources on projects lacking genuine feasibility studies.<\/p>\n The political writer and researcher pointed out that the extraction of resources from citizens has contributed to marginalizing the capabilities of society \u2014 particularly the energies of youth \u2014 and that the economic solution is fundamentally linked to comprehensive political reform. He warned of escalating cost-of-living pressures, and that talk of a “revolution of the hungry” is an indicator of the declining sense of societal security. He considers the stability of the state to be contingent on restoring citizens’ trust.<\/p>\n Ali Hassan also criticized, during his conference address, the absence of the rule of law and what he described as “constitutional violations,” noting that both impede the attraction of investment, and that the country needs a rescue program that restores politics to its role as the driver of the economy.<\/p>\n For his part, Dr. Hassan Al-Saddi \u2014 Professor of Finance Economics at Cairo University \u2014 stressed that the Egyptian economy possesses strong fundamentals, arguing that the current state of economic fragility is due to poor policy management and not to a structural weakness in the economy itself.<\/p>\n He explained during his conference address that the tensions between the United States and Iran have produced complex international repercussions, noting that China handled the situation with considerable shrewdness by securing its energy reserves, while other countries face mounting financial crises.<\/p>\n Al-Saddi called on the Egyptian government to define its foreign policy orientations clearly and to choose a calculated strategic alignment. He also affirmed that confronting inflation should not be limited to monetary tools, but requires stimulating production and increasing the supply of goods. He called for a reordering of public spending priorities, with investments directed toward developing “human infrastructure” \u2014 meaning education and cultural development \u2014 rather than an excessive focus on construction projects. He simultaneously supported lifting subsidies, provided this is linked to effective social protection programs and the creation of job opportunities.<\/p>\n In his conversation with Zawia3, Dr. Hassan Al-Saddi addressed the repercussions of regional tensions on the Egyptian economy, noting that it has been negatively affected across several key areas \u2014 including a decline in remittances from Egyptians abroad, falling revenues from the Suez Canal and tourism, rising import costs, and weak export capacity. He attributed this to the absence of preemptive plans capable of absorbing economic shocks.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Al-Saddi affirmed that the current phase requires a package of urgent decisions to contain the repercussions of the crisis, to be followed by a strategic long-term move tied to the end of the tensions. He added that global economies have become more capable of absorbing shocks over short periods, raising the question of whether the Egyptian government is capable of containing the crisis within a period of three to six months, or whether its repercussions will extend over a longer timeframe.<\/p>\n For his part, Ilhami Al-Mirghani considers that the Egyptian economy suffers from “structural fragility” as a result of growing reliance on debt to finance development. He notes that the size of domestic debt has reached approximately 11 trillion Egyptian pounds ($211.5 billion), while external debt has reached $163 billion (equivalent to approximately 7 trillion Egyptian pounds ($134.6 billion)), in addition to importing goods worth approximately $100 billion annually, alongside compliance with IMF conditions \u2014 which include floating the exchange rate, asset sales, market liberalization, and subsidy reductions.<\/p>\n Al-Mirghani notes, in his conversation with Zawia3, that the development model based on expansion in real estate and contracting \u2014 or what he described as “development by mall and compound” \u2014 does not achieve sustainable development, affirming that international experience proves that genuine growth is grounded in productive sectors, particularly industry and agriculture.<\/p>\n The economic researcher adds that debt service obligations absorb approximately 65% of the general budget’s expenditures, which limits the state’s capacity to fund essential sectors such as education and healthcare, and renders the economy more vulnerable to external shocks \u2014 in the absence of a strong productive base.<\/p>\n \n
\nHow Does the Civil Movement View the Repercussions of the Current Crisis?<\/h2>\n
\nThe Economics of Dependency: More Debt and More Burdens<\/h2>\n
\nConference Recommendations and Outcomes<\/h2>\n