{"id":16721,"date":"2026-03-03T22:25:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T20:25:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/?p=16721"},"modified":"2026-10-07T00:20:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T22:20:53","slug":"gaz-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/gaz-5\/","title":{"rendered":"How Is Cairo Responding to the Suspension of Israeli Gas Supplies?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following Saturday\u2019s US\u2013Israeli strikes on Iran, Israel announced<\/a> an indefinite suspension of natural gas exports to Egypt, citing disruption caused by the war. Approximately 1.1 billion cubic feet<\/a> of daily supplies stopped, a substantial share of Egypt\u2019s pipeline gas imports from Israel.<\/p>\n

The suspension came only around two and a half months after the announcement of a major gas agreement<\/a> worth approximately $35 billion, described by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the largest gas deal in Israel\u2019s history.<\/p>\n

Approved by Netanyahu in December and effective from the beginning of 2026, the agreement<\/a> was intended to run through 2040 and supply approximately 130 billion cubic meters from the eastern Mediterranean\u2019s Leviathan field.<\/p>\n

The agreement provoked controversy<\/a> and criticism in Egypt, particularly after Israel\u2019s war on Gaza following October 7, 2023. The nearly two-year war killed tens of thousands<\/a> and injured hundreds of thousands, according to official and rights-based estimates cited in the report.<\/p>\n

Reuters<\/a> described the deal as relief for Egypt\u2019s two-year energy crisis. Egypt had spent billions importing liquefied natural gas to compensate for declining domestic production and growing demand, particularly during summer peaks.<\/p>\n

An indefinite suspension nevertheless raises questions about how long the domestic market can absorb the loss and how demand will be managed in the coming months. A prolonged disruption coinciding with summer peaks could revive load shedding<\/a>, which previously caused outages<\/a> across many neighborhoods, or force the government to reprioritize supplies between sectors until the regional situation becomes clearer.<\/p>\n

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Egypt\u2019s response<\/h2>\n

The Egyptian government said it had implemented precautionary measures to secure domestic energy needs and maintain stable supplies amid rapidly changing regional developments.<\/p>\n

In an official statement<\/a>, the Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ministry said it had coordinated a comprehensive plan with the cabinet and relevant ministries to prepare the energy sector for new developments. It emphasized energy security as a cornerstone of national security.<\/p>\n

The ministry said supplies were diversified and alternative capacity was ready for operation. Throughout 2025, it secured additional LNG for extended periods to meet electricity, industrial and household needs, combining domestic production with imports from multiple sources and long-term agreements with international companies.<\/p>\n

It also described infrastructure for receiving LNG imports and the deployment of regasification vessels, improving flexibility and rapid response. These measures run alongside support for domestic production through regular payments to partners, intended to encourage exploration and output.<\/p>\n

Sara Kira, director of the European North African Center for Studies, links Israel\u2019s indefinite suspension to military escalation with Iran and uncertainty over the conflict\u2019s duration. She suggests Israel may want to preserve strategic stocks or indirectly signal readiness for a prolonged war in which commercial resources could become instruments of conflict.<\/p>\n

Kira told Zawia3 that Israelis might feel Egypt had taken advantage of them by liquefying gas and reselling it to Europe at higher prices through infrastructure Israel lacks. She says Egypt is not wholly dependent on Israeli gas for domestic consumption: it has its own fields and can import from other countries.<\/p>\n

Cairo had prepared for this scenario because of what Kira describes as an information war with Israel, taking precautionary measures to secure domestic energy needs.<\/p>\n

She considers renewed load shedding or outages unlikely, arguing that alternatives and strategic stocks leave Egypt better prepared than during the previous crisis involving production stoppages at some fields.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s gas market has changed considerably. Once an LNG exporter, the country has become increasingly dependent on imports as output at some fields declined. LNG imports rose sharply to around nine million tonnes<\/a> in 2025, compared with approximately 2.7 million in 2024, to cover the domestic shortfall.<\/p>\n

S&P Global Energy<\/a> estimates that Egypt\u2019s LNG imports could reach approximately 11.1 million tonnes in 2026, around 26% more than the previous year, as electricity and industrial demand remains high.<\/p>\n

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Political warnings<\/h2>\n

This is not the first disruption to agreed Israeli gas supplies. In May 2025, imports declined sharply<\/a> after Israel suspended production amid fears of regional escalation following Israeli attacks on targets in Iran.<\/p>\n

Egypt consequently reduced industrial gas supplies, including to the fertilizer sector, disrupting operations. Summer load-shedding concerns also returned, prompting the government to pursue long-term import agreements<\/a> with other countries.<\/p>\n

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Political and economic researcher Elhamy al-Mirghani says political groups, researchers and experts had warned against dependence on Israeli gas. The government nevertheless proceeded on the grounds that it was cheaper than supplies from some Gulf countries.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

He told Zawia3 that the escalating US\u2013Israeli confrontation in the Gulf and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive a new wave of global oil-price increases.<\/p>\n

Egypt would be affected because it relies on international markets for part of its needs while foreign currency remains scarce. Al-Mirghani expects additional inflationary pressure and a higher domestic dollar exchange rate.<\/p>\n

Continued increases in global energy prices could force the government to review domestic petroleum-product prices to cover an anticipated financing gap, despite earlier promises not to increase them in 2026, he warns.<\/p>\n

The gas stoppage could also affect export-oriented factories and supplies to power stations. High summer demand could intensify pressure on the national grid, creating what al-Mirghani calls a hot summer economically and in public services.<\/p>\n

MP Freddy El-Bayadi, deputy leader of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, submitted an urgent parliamentary question to the prime minister and petroleum and electricity ministers on energy preparedness amid escalating conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States, its regional spread and likely economic effects.<\/p>\n

El-Bayadi told Zawia3 that disruptions to gas, which accounted for approximately 76% of Egypt\u2019s electricity generation in 2023, could directly undermine grid stability, particularly as Egypt increasingly depends on LNG imports.<\/p>\n

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A substantial share of imported gas comes from Israel, making even a temporary stoppage a serious industrial and electricity concern, he says. Reported negotiations with international companies and national energy firms in Arab countries for 40\u201360 LNG cargoes<\/a>, potentially costing $3 billion, raise questions about the budget, public debt and exchange rate. He calls for comprehensive contingency plans to protect energy supply and the economy from market volatility.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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Political implications and a crisis shaped by time<\/h2>\n

The latest deal<\/a> extends the 2019 agreement, which provided for 60 billion cubic meters through 2030. The new arrangement increases the volume to approximately 130 billion cubic meters through 2040, relying on Leviathan\u2019s production.<\/p>\n

Partial deliveries are due to begin in 2026, with full volumes following expansion of connections between the Israeli field and Egypt\u2019s liquefaction facilities. This positions Cairo as a principal gateway for Israeli gas exports to Europe and international markets.<\/p>\n

The report identifies US company Chevron as Leviathan\u2019s operator, holding 40% of the field, with estimated reserves of approximately 600 billion cubic meters.<\/p>\n

EIPR economic researcher Mohamed Ramadan challenges the claim that military escalation is the immediate reason for the stoppage, describing it as a pretext because the field itself was not struck. He argues that continued domestic supplies while exports to Egypt stop point to a political decision.<\/p>\n

Ramadan told Zawia3 that Israel invokes force majeure<\/a>, a contractual provision allowing suspension of supplies during military operations. In his view, the latest military developments provide a political excuse rather than necessarily explaining the stoppage.<\/p>\n

The agreement\u2019s drawbacks include larger contracted quantities and greater dependence on a supplier engaged in continuing conflicts, making such consequences foreseeable, he says.<\/p>\n

Egypt is better prepared than last year because it has increased LNG purchases, Ramadan argues. He expects industrial supplies to remain unaffected in the short term if the war does not last long. LNG costs more but is the available option to address domestic shortages.<\/p>\n

A paper by Almasar for Human Studies<\/a>, titled \u201cThe Egypt\u2013Israel Gas Deal: Intersecting Interests and Risks,\u201d identifies five factors behind Egypt\u2019s rising gas imports.<\/p>\n

First is declining field production: Zohr\u2019s 2024 output was more than 40% below its 2021 peak. Gas represents approximately 51% of total energy production and 76.8% of domestically generated electricity, making the decline particularly consequential. Accumulated debts to foreign energy companies also reduced investment in field development and limited domestic output growth.<\/p>\n

Other factors include substantial network losses from electricity theft, reaching 45% in some areas. In six months, the Electricity Ministry collected approximately EGP 4 billion of EGP 6 billion in assessed theft-related liabilities across 1.6 million cases. Domestic consumption also doubled over two decades as the population exceeded 110 million. Summer peaks are especially severe when temperatures in some governorates exceed 50\u00b0C. Seasonal conditions affect imports too: Israeli supplies can decline by approximately 8% in summer as demand rises in Israel itself.<\/p>\n

Recent political and military developments expose the vulnerability of relying on unstable external sources for strategic commodities such as gas, despite large agreements and long contracts. Egypt appears to have taken precautionary steps to secure consumption and soften potential crises. But if the interruption remains indefinite, can it sustain supplies, prevent outages and protect industry?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Israel\u2019s indefinite gas-export suspension tests Egypt\u2019s contingency plans. Officials point to alternative LNG supplies, while experts warn of higher costs and renewed pressure on electricity and industry if the crisis persists.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15207,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[409],"tags":[],"kateb":[728],"class_list":["post-16721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics-en","kateb-shimaa-hamdy"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0645\u0635\u0631-\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0631\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0644.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16721"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16722,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16721\/revisions\/16722"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15207"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16721"},{"taxonomy":"kateb","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kateb?post=16721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}