{"id":16733,"date":"2026-04-04T16:50:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T14:50:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/?p=16733"},"modified":"2026-10-07T00:22:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T22:22:28","slug":"the-impact-of-war-on-staple-foods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/the-impact-of-war-on-staple-foods\/","title":{"rendered":"Cairo Faces Supply Disruption: How Is the War Affecting Egyptians\u2019 Food?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other has directly disrupted global supply chains<\/a>, particularly for countries such as Egypt that depend heavily on imports for everyday needs. Food prices rose last month as fuel costs<\/a> increased, the dollar<\/a> moved above EGP 54<\/a>, and shipping and insurance became more expensive amid disruption<\/a> in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Agricultural and food products account for approximately 24%<\/a> of Egypt\u2019s imports. Major items<\/a> include wheat, maize, soybeans, vegetable oils, meat, dairy products and nuts. Principal suppliers include Russia, Ukraine, the United States, France and Indonesia.<\/p>\n

Wheat imports rose markedly in the first quarter of this year to around 3.8 million<\/a> tonnes, compared with 12.3 million tonnes over the whole of 2025. Reported imports of US soybeans reached approximately 2.35 million<\/a> tonnes.<\/p>\n

Yellow-maize imports, by contrast, fell by around 28% to approximately 1.48 million tonnes, compared with about 2.04 million tonnes in the previous year\u2019s comparison period.<\/p>\n

The government announced<\/a> strategic stocks of essential food commodities sufficient for more than six months. The Grain Industries Chamber at the Federation of Egyptian Industries separately said wheat stocks totaled about 4.5 million tonnes, sufficient for four months<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Supply and Internal Trade Ministry nevertheless adjusted<\/a> the prices of several ration-card commodities from April. A 400-gram pasta package rose from EGP 8.50 to EGP 9; a kilogram of rice from EGP 24 to EGP 25; an 800-milliliter bottle of oil from EGP 54 to EGP 60; and 700 milliliters of blended oil from EGP 48 to EGP 54.<\/p>\n

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How has Egypt been affected?<\/h2>\n

Nader Noureddin, professor of water resources and soils at Cairo University\u2019s Faculty of Agriculture and an expert associated with the Food and Agriculture Organization\u2019s general assembly, says the global energy crisis directly affects food prices through higher transport and shipping costs. The war\u2019s main effect on Egypt\u2019s market, he explains, is through the dollar\u2019s rise from EGP 47 to more than EGP 54.<\/p>\n

Noureddin estimates that Egypt imports around 65% of its strategic-commodity needs. Annual imports include approximately 12.5 million tonnes of wheat, 12 million tonnes of yellow maize and four million tonnes of soybeans, alongside sugar, pulses, and half its meat and butter needs. Any movement in the dollar therefore feeds quickly into domestic prices.<\/p>\n

\u201cHigher domestic fuel prices multiply inflation,\u201d he tells Zawia3. \u201cFuel drives up transport, storage and operating costs, raising the price of every commodity\u2014from moving agricultural crops to running shops.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Fertilizers are particularly exposed because production uses substantial natural gas and electricity, he adds. Reduced global gas supplies, especially from Qatar and Russia, have cut European fertilizer production and driven international fertilizer prices up by between 30% and 50%.<\/p>\n

From April 1, the government raised subsidized fertilizer prices. The cited announcement<\/a> sets urea and nitrate at EGP 290 per sack and sulfate at EGP 285. Urea on the open market rose to between EGP 21,000 and EGP 27,000 per tonne.<\/p>\n

Feed prices also jumped in March and early April, by approximately EGP 2,000\u20132,500<\/a> per tonne. At the beginning of April 2026, poultry feed<\/a> cost EGP 17,100\u201324,500 per tonne depending on quality and producer; cattle and sheep feed cost EGP 16,000\u201321,600. Soybean meal approached EGP 30,000 per tonne and yellow maize approximately EGP 15,500.<\/p>\n

Noureddin links rising feed prices directly to the exchange rate, since Egypt imports maize and soybeans, the two main feed ingredients. Feed represents between 65% and 75% of the cost of producing meat, poultry and fish, he says.<\/p>\n

Mohamed Fathy Salem, professor of biological agriculture at the University of Sadat City, says any global supply-chain disruption, particularly around Hormuz and the Red Sea, immediately affects the cost and availability of strategic commodities such as wheat, vegetable oils, yellow maize and soybeans.<\/p>\n

Higher oil prices caused by regional tensions increase shipping and insurance costs, adding to import-dependent countries\u2019 burdens and driving food prices up globally and domestically, he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cReduced gas supplies affect fertilizer factories, raising agricultural production costs and ultimately food-crop prices,\u201d Salem tells Zawia3. \u201cThe higher dollar exchange rate is a decisive factor in worsening the crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

He identifies poultry as particularly vulnerable because of its near-total reliance on imported feed ingredients. Egypt consumes around 1.4 billion chickens annually, with feed largely dependent on imported maize and soybeans.<\/p>\n

\u201cA shortage of feed, or an increase in its cost, could reduce animal-protein production, whether poultry or meat,\u201d he says. \u201cWith part of the country\u2019s meat requirements also imported, this widens the food gap as the population grows.\u201d<\/p>\n

Strategic stocks of feed ingredients are relatively limited, potentially covering only three to four months, Salem warns. A prolonged crisis could make supplies harder to obtain or much more expensive. He calls for prudent resource management, diversified import sources and stronger domestic production.<\/p>\n

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Will prices keep rising?<\/h2>\n

Hazem El-Menoufi, a member of the foodstuffs trade division, attributes rising cooking-oil and ghee prices to higher shipping and insurance costs, international raw-material prices, longer routes and transit times, and exchange-rate movements. Some estimates put the international rise in raw-oil costs at around 25%. These pressures could persist as geopolitical tensions and freight costs remain elevated.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe most affected commodities are those heavily dependent on imports and long-distance shipping,\u201d he tells Zawia3. They include raw soybean, sunflower and maize oils; wheat and yellow maize; feed ingredients; raw sugar; and oils used by the food industry, all reliant on international maritime supply chains.<\/p>\n

Importers have already changed shipping routes and sources, El-Menoufi says. Many shipping companies now travel around the Cape of Good Hope instead of through the Suez Canal to avoid conflict areas. Import sources have been redistributed to reduce geographic risk, while marine-insurance costs have risen as some areas are classified as high risk.<\/p>\n

The exchange rate is central to higher food prices because most imports are purchased in dollars, particularly strategic goods such as raw oils. El-Menoufi says disruption around the Red Sea and Hormuz has lengthened voyages by around 45% and distances by approximately 40% as vessels take alternative routes, directly increasing transport costs and delivery times.<\/p>\n

He expects feed-price increases of around EGP 3,000 per tonne to gradually affect poultry and egg prices, with indirect effects on red meat. Feed accounts for 60\u201370% of poultry-production costs, he says. A prolonged war would increase food inflation, pressure international grain and oil supplies, and raise animal-protein prices.<\/p>\n

El-Menoufi says essential-commodity stocks remain safe and sufficient for several months, with no actual market shortages. Supplies continue through different outlets, import sources extend across the Black Sea, Europe and Asia, and earlier contracting and stronger strategic stocks help secure deliveries. The current challenge, he stresses, is price pressure rather than availability.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In March, Egypt received approximately 2,626<\/a> imported food consignments totaling around 682,000 tonnes, brought in by 1,010 companies. They included wheat, various oils, soybeans and lentils, according to the National Food Safety Authority.<\/p>\n

Hisham El-Degwi, head of the foodstuffs division at the Giza Chamber of Commerce, says regional tensions and war have affected global food supply chains. Egypt remains relatively stable, however, because of strategic stocks, expanded silo capacity, increased local production and improved agricultural infrastructure, providing greater security than in some international markets.<\/p>\n

\u201cOils are the commodities most affected by recent disruption,\u201d he tells Zawia3. Their heavy import dependence makes them particularly sensitive to international markets, freight costs and exchange rates. He says sugar, rice and pulses have not seen significant increases since the crisis began, and any price movements have been limited.<\/p>\n

El-Degwi stresses that ration-commodity stocks are available, including sugar sufficient for up to a year and wheat reserves ahead of the new local harvest. Higher feed costs have not yet clearly translated into final prices, he says.<\/p>\n

Accurate forecasts are difficult amid continuing uncertainty, he adds. Current indicators suggest relative stability in Egypt\u2019s food sector, while future changes depend on the crisis\u2019s duration and development.<\/p>\n

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Possible scenarios for the food crisis<\/h2>\n

Regional-security researcher Ahmed Sultan expects the war\u2019s effects could deepen over the medium term. Growing pressure on energy and food supply chains has already affected Egyptian agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and feed, which are closely tied to international energy markets. Government divestment from fertilizer-related industrial assets adds another dimension.<\/p>\n

\u201cA prolonged war could impose stricter austerity,\u201d Sultan tells Zawia3, citing Egypt\u2019s exposure to external shocks and inadequate preparation, scenarios and alternative plans before crises occur. He warns of a wider strategic crisis requiring urgent interventions and external financial support.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Egypt faces real pressure on energy, a fundamental input across economic sectors, he says. This affects production and transport costs and therefore commodity prices, including food. The war\u2019s effects extend throughout the region, especially given Hormuz\u2019s strategic importance for energy and supply chains.<\/p>\n

Economist Ahmed Shawki says persistent volatility in Brent crude\u2014which has at times exceeded $100 a barrel, compared with approximately $75 assumed in the budget\u2014directly raises fuel costs. These feed into transport, operations, production and logistics, increasing food and input costs.<\/p>\n

The exchange rate is another central import-cost factor, he tells Zawia3. The dollar has risen above EGP 54, an increase of about 15%, amid geopolitical tensions, a move toward the dollar as a safe haven and short-term foreign-investment outflows. \u201cOil and the dollar are the two decisive factors for prices in the coming period,\u201d he says. \u201cFurther increases in both will add pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shawki considers food security relatively stable for now. Strategic stocks cover around six months, and some commodities, such as sugar, around a year. Foreign reserves exceeding $50 billion provide capacity to finance essential imports, supporting short-term supply stability. Ports on both the Red Sea and Mediterranean, alternative shipping routes and diverse trading partners also provide flexibility.<\/p>\n

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What alternatives does the government have?<\/h2>\n

Agricultural inputs, particularly nitrogen fertilizers, are among the sectors most affected by regional war, according to Tarek Abu Moussa, professor of agricultural economics at the Agricultural Research Centre. Higher production and transport costs have driven domestic prices upward.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s annual fertilizer output is approximately 17.9 million<\/a> tonnes. The figures cited include about 6.7 million tonnes of urea and 7.8 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizers. Around 60%<\/a> of production is exported, while 30\u201340% goes to the domestic market. Fertilizer exports were worth approximately $1.359 billion<\/a> in the first half of last year.<\/p>\n

Fertilizer prices rose by 10\u201315%<\/a> after the war began. The later account in the Arabic report lists early-April prices<\/a> of EGP 290 per sack of urea, EGP 285 for nitrate and EGP 290 for sulfate. These nitrate and sulfate figures differ from the announcement cited earlier, which gives EGP 290 for nitrate and EGP 285 for sulfate. The account warns that increases could reach 50%<\/a> if escalation continues.<\/p>\n

Abu Moussa calls for temporarily suspending exports of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers to ensure domestic availability and support farming. Egypt imports substantial shares of its food needs: around 45% of wheat, 75% of fava beans, 80% of lentils and 90% of vegetable oils, according to the estimates he cites.<\/p>\n

\u201cMilitary escalation and growing tensions in the Middle East directly and indirectly affect global food supply chains,\u201d he tells Zawia3. \u201cThis is already reflected in availability and prices, particularly for food. The world could be facing a prolonged food crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

He says feed is also exposed. Egypt consumes more than 11 million tonnes of yellow maize and imports around 80% of it, along with approximately 90% of its soybean needs. These are the main feed ingredients, so rising costs affect meat, poultry and fish. Around 75% of Egypt\u2019s fish production comes from feed-dependent aquaculture, compared with 25% from seas and lakes.<\/p>\n

Abu Moussa urges the government to activate contract farming and encourage maize and soybean cultivation through rewarding procurement prices. He also calls for maize dryers ahead of the summer season and higher local wheat procurement prices to encourage farmers before the April harvest.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of April, the government announced<\/a> a higher wheat procurement price of EGP 2,500 per ardeb, aiming to encourage local supplies, reduce the import bill and secure stocks amid military escalation. This is the figure in the announcement linked by the original report, which mistakenly gives EGP 2,200 and a dollar equivalent.<\/p>\n

Ahmed Fathy Naeem, a livestock and poultry consultant, says animal and poultry production are among the sectors most exposed to international changes because of heavy reliance on imported feed. Feeding accounts for 65\u201380% of total production costs.<\/p>\n

\u201cExchange-rate and global supply-chain disruption, higher energy prices and shipping costs have raised maize and soybean prices, and consequently feed costs by around EGP 3,000 per tonne,\u201d he tells Zawia3. \u201cThat will inevitably affect poultry, meat and related products.\u201d The full effect is not yet visible because consumption fell after Ramadan, he says, but it will emerge within one to two months.<\/p>\n

Naeem expects a prolonged crisis could trigger another wave of price rises across poultry, eggs, meat and dairy as production-cost pressures accumulate. The decisive factor is how long tensions continue and how they affect fuel prices and the exchange rate.<\/p>\n

He calls for urgent measures to facilitate feed-ingredient imports, especially maize and soybeans, and build stocks covering three to six months. He also advocates less intensive production requiring less feed, diversified imports, and new markets such as Brazil, Australia and New Zealand for feed ingredients or poultry.<\/p>\n

With war continuing and international markets fluctuating, more flexible policies are needed: diversifying imports, strengthening domestic production and regulating markets to reduce the impact of external shocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A weaker pound, rising fuel costs and disrupted shipping are pushing up food and agricultural-input prices. Strategic stocks offer short-term protection, but a prolonged war could widen Egypt\u2019s food gap.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15308,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[409],"tags":[],"kateb":[1550],"class_list":["post-16733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics-en","kateb-aya-yasser"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628-\u0639\u0644\u0649-\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0646-\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0630\u0627\u0621.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16733"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16734,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733\/revisions\/16734"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15308"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16733"},{"taxonomy":"kateb","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kateb?post=16733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}