{"id":16733,"date":"2026-04-04T16:50:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T14:50:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/?p=16733"},"modified":"2026-10-24T14:56:44","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T12:56:44","slug":"the-impact-of-war-on-staple-foods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/the-impact-of-war-on-staple-foods\/","title":{"rendered":"Cairo Faces Supply Disruption: How Is the War Affecting Egyptians\u2019 Food?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other has directly affected global supply<\/span> chains<\/span><\/a>, and in particular countries that rely heavily on imports to meet their daily needs, such as Egypt. Over the past month, food product prices rose, driven by higher<\/span> fuel prices<\/span><\/a>, the exchange rate of the<\/span> dollar<\/span><\/a>, which<\/span> exceeded<\/span><\/a> EGP 54, and shipping and insurance costs, following<\/span> disruptions<\/span><\/a> to navigation in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. <\/span><\/p>\n

Agricultural and food products make up<\/a> about 24% of Egypt’s total imports, most notably<\/a> wheat, maize, soybeans, vegetable oils, meat, dairy products and nuts, while the main sources of Egypt’s food imports are Russia, Ukraine, the United States, France and Indonesia.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

During the first quarter of this year, wheat imports saw a notable<\/span> jump<\/span><\/a>, reaching about 3.8 million tonnes, compared with total imports of 12.3 million tonnes during 2025. In the same vein, Egypt’s imports of American soybeans<\/span> recorded<\/span><\/a> about 2.35 million tonnes <\/span><\/p>\n

By contrast, yellow maize imports fell by about 28% to nearly 1.48 million tonnes, compared with about 2.04 million tonnes last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

For its part, the Egyptian government<\/span> announced<\/span><\/a> the availability of a strategic stock of all basic food commodities for periods exceeding 6 months, while the Chamber of Cereal Industries of the Federation of Egyptian Industries stated that the strategic<\/span> stock<\/span><\/a> of wheat is sufficient for 4 months, totalling about 4,500,000 tonnes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this, the Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade raised the<\/span> prices<\/span><\/a> of a number of ration commodities starting from this April: the price of a 400-gram pack of pasta rose to EGP 9 instead of EGP 8.50, the price of a kilo of rice to EGP 25 instead of EGP 24, the price of 800 ml of oil rose to EGP 60 instead of EGP 54 per bottle, and 700 ml of blended oil to EGP 54 instead of EGP 48.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Recommended reading: <\/b>A New $332 Million for the Light Rail: Why Is Egypt Borrowing Despite El-Sisi’s Warnings?<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

How Has Egypt Been Affected?<\/b><\/h1>\n

Nader Nour El-Din, professor of water resources and land at the Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, and an expert at the General Assembly of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), explains that global markets face an energy crisis that is reflected directly in food prices because of higher transport and shipping costs, indicating that the war’s main effect on the Egyptian market is linked to its repercussions on the exchange rate of the dollar against the pound, which rose from EGP 47 to more than EGP 54.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nour El-Din points to Egypt’s reliance on imports to cover about 65% of its needs of strategic commodities, as it imports annually nearly 12.5 million tonnes of wheat, 12 million tonnes of yellow maize and 4 million tonnes of soybeans, in addition to quantities of sugar and pulses and 50% of its needs of meat and butter, which means that any change in the dollar’s price is immediately reflected in local prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

He tells Zawia3: “The rise in fuel prices locally is a multiplier of inflation, as fuel is a driving commodity that leads to higher transport, storage and operating costs, which raises the prices of all goods, from transporting agricultural crops to the operating costs of shops.”<\/span><\/p>\n

He adds that “fertilisers are among the sectors most affected by the energy crisis, given their heavy reliance on natural gas and electricity, and the shortage of gas supplies globally, especially from Qatar and Russia, has led to a decline in the output of fertiliser plants in Europe and a rise in their prices globally by between 30% and 50%.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The Egyptian government had<\/span> approved<\/span><\/a> a new increase in the prices of subsidised fertilisers starting from 1 April, bringing a sack of urea and nitrate to EGP 290 and sulphate to EGP 285, while the price of a tonne of urea jumped to levels ranging between EGP 21,000 and EGP 27,000 on the free market.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, feed prices in Egypt saw a price jump during March and this April, as the price per tonne rose by an<\/span> amount<\/span><\/a> ranging between EGP 2,000 and EGP 2,500, and at the start of April 2026 the<\/span> price<\/span><\/a> of a tonne of poultry feed ranged between EGP 17,100 and EGP 24,500 depending on quality and company, while cattle and sheep feed recorded between EGP 16,000 and EGP 21,600 per tonne, whereas a tonne of soybean meal rose to nearly EGP 30,000, and yellow maize to about EGP 15,500.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nour El-Din explains that the rise in feed prices is directly linked to the increase in the dollar’s price, given Egypt’s reliance on importing yellow maize and soybeans, the two main components of feed, noting that feed accounts for between 65% and 75% of the cost of producing meat, poultry and fish. <\/span><\/p>\n

For his part, Dr Mohamed Fathy Salem, professor of biological agriculture at the University of Sadat City, affirms that any disruption in global supply chains, especially through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, is immediately reflected in the cost and availability of a number of strategic commodities, foremost among them wheat, vegetable oils, yellow maize and soybeans.<\/span><\/p>\n

He points out that the rise in oil prices as a result of the tensions has led to higher shipping and insurance costs, which multiplies the burdens on importing countries such as Egypt and leads to higher food prices globally, and consequently locally.<\/span><\/p>\n

He tells Zawia3: “The decline in gas supplies affects the operation of fertiliser plants, which raises the cost of agricultural production and ultimately leads to higher prices for food crops, and the rise in the dollar’s exchange rate is a decisive factor in aggravating the crisis.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Salem explains that the poultry sector is among the most fragile sectors, given its almost complete reliance on imported feed, while the country consumes about 1.4 billion chickens a year, whose feed relies mainly on imports of maize and soya.<\/span><\/p>\n

He adds: “A shortage or rise in the cost of feed may lead to a decline in the production of animal protein, whether in poultry or meat, especially as part of the meat requirement is imported from abroad, which widens the food gap amid population growth.”<\/span><\/p>\n

He notes that the strategic stock of feed raw materials remains relatively limited and may cover only between 3 and 4 months, warning that a continuation of the crisis could lead to difficulties in securing these raw materials or to a sharp rise in their prices, and calling for the food gap to be narrowed through rational management of resources, diversification of import sources and the strengthening of local production.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Recommended reading:<\/b> Metro, Train and Petrol: Egyptians Pay the Bill for Three Increases in One Month<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n


\nWill Prices Keep Rising?<\/b><\/h1>\n

Hazem El-Menoufy, a member of the Food Products Division, attributes the rise in the prices of a number of food commodities, foremost among them cooking oils and ghee, to higher shipping and insurance costs, increases in raw material prices globally, changes in transport routes and longer arrival times, in addition to movements in the exchange rate, noting that some estimates indicate that the cost of a tonne of crude oils has risen globally by about 25%, and that these increases are likely to continue as long as geopolitical tensions and shipping prices persist over the medium term.<\/span><\/p>\n

He tells Zawia3: “The commodities most affected by supply chain disruption are those that rely heavily on imports and long-haul maritime transport, foremost among them crude vegetable oils such as soybean, sunflower and corn oil, in addition to grains, especially wheat and yellow maize, feed inputs, as well as raw sugar and the oils used in food industries, because they depend on international supply chains heavy in maritime shipping.”<\/span><\/p>\n

He adds: “Importers have indeed been forced to change shipping routes and supply sources, as many shipping companies have turned to the Cape of Good Hope route instead of the Suez Canal to avoid areas of tension, and import sources have been redistributed to reduce geographical risks, at the same time as marine insurance costs have risen as a result of some areas being classified as high-risk, which adds new financial burdens.”<\/span><\/p>\n

He explains that the exchange rate is a main factor in the increase in food commodity prices, since most of them are imported in dollars, given Egypt’s reliance on importing a number of strategic commodities, foremost among them crude oils, pointing out that the disruptions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have lengthened sea voyage times by about 45% and increased distances by about 40% as a result of ships being diverted to alternative routes, which has been reflected directly in transport costs and supply times.<\/span><\/p>\n

He points out that the rise in feed prices by about EGP 3,000 per tonne will gradually be reflected in the prices of poultry and eggs, and indirectly in red meat as well, since feed accounts for between 60% and 70% of the cost of poultry production, expecting gradual price increases and warning that a continuation of the war for long periods will lead to higher rates of food inflation, pressure on global supply chains for grains and oils, and higher prices for animal protein.<\/span><\/p>\n

El-Menoufy affirms that the strategic stock of basic commodities is secure and sufficient for several months, with no actual shortage in the markets, the continued pumping of goods through the various outlets, and the diversification of import sources to include regions such as the Black Sea, Europe and Asia, in addition to early contracting for shipments and the strengthening of the strategic stock; however, the current challenge concerns price pressures, not the availability of goods.<\/span><\/p>\n

During March, the Egyptian market<\/span> received<\/span><\/a> about 2,626 incoming food consignments, amounting to about 682,000 tonnes, imported by 1,010 companies, and including wheat, various oils, soybeans and lentils, according to the National Food Safety Authority.<\/span><\/p>\n

For his part, Hisham El-Dogwy, head of the Food Products Division at the Giza Chamber of Commerce, affirms that regional tensions and the current war have cast their shadow over food supply chains globally, but the situation in Egypt remains relatively stable, given the existence of a strategic stock of basic commodities, the expansion in building silos, increased local production and improved agricultural infrastructure, which has provided a state of relative security in the local market compared with what some global markets are experiencing.<\/span><\/p>\n

He tells Zawia3: “Oils are the most prominent commodities affected by the recent disruptions, as they have seen notable price movements as a result of the heavy reliance on importing them from abroad, which makes them more sensitive to fluctuations in global markets, shipping costs and the exchange rate, but the prices of sugar, rice and pulses have not seen notable increases since the start of the crisis, and any price movements were very limited and do not significantly affect the consumer.”<\/span><\/p>\n

He stresses the availability of the strategic stock of ration commodities, as the sugar stock is sufficient for a period of up to a full year, in addition to the availability of wheat reserves with the new local season approaching, pointing out that any increases in the cost of feed have not yet been reflected tangibly in final prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

El-Dogwy believes that it is difficult to issue accurate future estimates amid continuing uncertainty, affirming that current indicators reflect relative stability in the food sector inside Egypt, and that any potential changes will remain linked to how long the crisis lasts and how it develops.<\/span><\/p>\n

What Are the Expected Scenarios for the Food Crisis?<\/b><\/h1>\n

Regional security researcher Ahmed Sultan does not rule out the effects of the regional war growing in scale over the medium term, especially amid mounting pressures on energy and food supply chains, which have affected Egypt’s agricultural production inputs, such as fertilisers and feed, because of their close link to global energy markets, in addition to the government’s exit from some industrial assets linked to fertiliser industries.<\/span><\/p>\n

He tells Zawia3: “A prolonged continuation of the war may impose stricter austerity measures, given the exposure of the Egyptian economy to external shocks, the absence of advance preparation for crises, and the failure to put in place alternative scenarios and plans before they occur”, warning that a longer continuation of the war could lead to a crisis of a broader strategic nature, requiring urgent interventions and external financial support.<\/span><\/p>\n

He believes that Egypt faces real pressures on its energy system, which in turn is a main input for all economic sectors, and this will be reflected in production and transport costs and consequently in the prices of goods, including food, pointing out that the effects of the regional war extend to the entire region, especially given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a main corridor for energy and supply chains.<\/span><\/p>\n

Likewise, economic expert Dr Ahmed Shawky explains that the continuing volatility in the price of Brent crude, which at times exceeded $100 a barrel compared with about $75 in the budget, leads directly to higher fuel costs, which in turn is reflected in transport, operating, production and logistics costs, and consequently increases the cost of food commodities and production inputs.<\/span><\/p>\n

He affirms to Zawia3 that the exchange rate is one of the main factors affecting the cost of imports, as the dollar has risen to levels exceeding EGP 54, an increase of nearly 15%, due to geopolitical tensions, investors turning to the dollar as a safe haven, and the exit of short-term foreign investments, adding: “The two decisive factors in determining the direction of prices in the coming period are the price of oil and the price of the dollar; a continued rise in both will lead to additional pressure on prices.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Regarding food security in Egypt, Shawky believes that the situation is still relatively stable, given the availability of a strategic reserve of basic commodities sufficient for about 6 months, while for some commodities such as sugar it extends to about a full year, pointing out that foreign currency reserves, which exceed $50 billion, provide the capacity to finance imports of basic commodities, supporting the stability of supplies in the short term, and pointing to Egypt’s multiple sea outlets on the Red and Mediterranean seas, the possibility of redirecting shipments through alternative routes, and the diversity of Egypt’s trading partners, which gives flexibility in dealing with crises.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Recommended reading:<\/b> Fuel Prices Raised for the 21st Time Since 2019: The War Is a Pretext and Egyptians Pay the Bill<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

And What Are the Government’s Alternatives?<\/b> <\/span><\/h1>\n

The agricultural production supplies sector, foremost among it nitrogen fertilisers, is among the sectors in Egypt most affected by the regional war, affected by rising prices alongside increased production and transport costs, which has led to higher prices on the local market, according to Dr Tarek Abu Moussa, professor of agricultural economics at the Agricultural Research Center.<\/span><\/p>\n

The annual<\/span> output<\/span><\/a> of the fertiliser sector in Egypt amounts to about 17.9 million tonnes, divided between 6.7 tonnes of urea and 7.8 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilisers, and Egypt<\/span> directs<\/span><\/a> about 60% of its fertiliser output to export and pumps between 30% and 40% into the local market, while the<\/span> value<\/span><\/a> of Egyptian fertiliser exports amounted to about $1.359 billion during the first half of last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the outbreak of the regional war, fertiliser prices rose by<\/span> a rate<\/span><\/a> of 10% to 15%, and from the start of this April<\/span> the price<\/span><\/a> of urea fertiliser reached EGP 290 per sack, the price of a sack of nitrate fertiliser EGP 285, and sulphate fertiliser rose to EGP 290 per sack, amid<\/span> expectations<\/span><\/a> that the increase will reach 50% if the escalation continues for longer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abu Moussa calls for a temporary halt to exports of nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, to ensure their availability locally and support agricultural production, especially given Egypt’s reliance on imports to cover large shares of its food needs, as it imports about 45% of its wheat, 75% of its fava beans, 80% of its lentils and 90% of its vegetable oils.<\/span><\/p>\n

He tells Zawia3: “The military escalation and mounting tensions in the Middle East region are casting their shadow, directly and indirectly, over food supply chains globally, which has already begun to be reflected in the abundance and prices of commodities, particularly food, and the world may be facing a protracted food crisis.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The professor of agricultural economics explains that the crisis extends to the feed sector, as Egypt relies heavily on importing its basic components: it consumes more than 11 million tonnes of yellow maize, about 80% of which is imported, in addition to importing about 90% of its soybean needs, the two main components of feed, which leads to higher prices for meat, poultry and fish, especially as about 75% of Egypt’s fish production relies on feed-based fish farming, against only 25% from natural production in the seas and lakes.<\/span><\/p>\n

He calls on the government to activate the contract farming system and encourage farmers to grow yellow maize and soybeans by setting rewarding procurement prices, in addition to building maize dryers in preparation for the summer season, stressing the importance of raising procurement prices for local wheat to motivate farmers before the harvest season begins in April.<\/span><\/p>\n

The government <\/span> <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> at the start of this April that it was raising the price at which it buys wheat from farmers to EGP 2,500 per ardeb, about $51.70, for the second time during the current agricultural season, in an attempt to reduce the import bill and secure the country’s stock amid the mounting military escalation in the Middle East.<\/span><\/p>\n

For his part, Dr Ahmed Fathy Naeem, a livestock and poultry consultant, considers the animal and poultry production sector in Egypt to be among the sectors most affected by global changes, given its heavy reliance on imported feed, explaining that the cost of feeding accounts for between 65% and 80% of total production costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

He tells Zawia3: “Disruptions in the exchange rate and global supply chains, rising energy prices and higher shipping costs have led to a rise in the prices of maize and soya, and consequently of feed, which has reached about EGP 3,000 per tonne, and this will inevitably be reflected in the prices of poultry, meat and their products, which has not yet become fully apparent in the markets because of the decline in consumption rates after the month of Ramadan, and will appear after a period of between one and two months.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Naeem expects that a prolonged continuation of the crisis could lead to a new wave of price rises for animal products, including poultry, eggs, meat and dairy, as a result of accumulated pressures on production costs, explaining that the decisive factor in this is how long the tensions last and their effect on fuel prices and the exchange rate.<\/span><\/p>\n

He calls for urgent measures to be taken, most notably facilitating the import of feed raw materials, foremost among them maize and soya, so as to allow a secure stock of them to be built up for periods of 3 to 6 months to reduce the impact of external shocks, in parallel with expanding non-intensive production, which relies on lower feed consumption, and diversifying import sources and opening new markets, especially in countries of the South such as Brazil, Australia and New Zealand, to import feed raw materials or poultry.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the war continuing and global markets fluctuating, the need appears urgent to adopt more flexible policies, including diversifying import sources, strengthening local production and regulating markets, to reduce the impact of external shocks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Editorial correction: The first version of the report stated that the wheat procurement price had risen by 10% to EGP 2,200 per ardeb; the correct information is that it rose to EGP 2,500 per ardeb according to the prime minister’s announcement on 1 April 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar rose from EGP 47 to more than EGP 54 and feed prices jumped by about EGP 3,000 per tonne, while the disruption in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz lengthened maritime shipping times by 45%, and the stock of feed raw materials does not exceed 4 months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15308,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[409],"tags":[],"kateb":[1550],"class_list":["post-16733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics-en","kateb-aya-yasser"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628-\u0639\u0644\u0649-\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0646-\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0630\u0627\u0621.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16733"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23928,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16733\/revisions\/23928"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15308"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16733"},{"taxonomy":"kateb","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kateb?post=16733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}