{"id":16735,"date":"2026-02-16T19:10:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T17:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/?p=16735"},"modified":"2026-10-07T00:22:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T22:22:41","slug":"ramdan2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/ramdan2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Ahlan Ramadan Promises Discounts, but the Food Basket Tells a Different Story"},"content":{"rendered":"

Egyptian markets are seeing noticeable increases in several essential food prices this February, driven by seasonal demand ahead of Ramadan. The increases come despite a longer-term decline in inflation. Historical CAPMAS<\/a> figures cited in the report put annual inflation at 12.5%<\/a> in February 2025, down from 23.2% in January of that year; those figures refer to 2025, not the current month in 2026. The contrast highlights a gap between aggregate indicators and actual living costs. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has said poverty exceeds 30%<\/a>, while estimates attributed to the World Bank put it at 32.5%. The report also cites an estimate that 66.2%<\/a> of Egyptians live below a purchasing-power-adjusted international threshold of around $6.8 a day.<\/p>\n

Local newspapers\u2019 February retail-price data<\/a> show successive daily increases. Sunflower oil reached EGP 90.05 per liter, up EGP 4.86; maize oil reached EGP 107.86, up EGP 8.17; and fresh poultry rose EGP 0.88 to EGP 110.18 per kilogram. Egg prices<\/a> increased by around EGP 7 per tray during the first week. Fresh red meat rose EGP 5.63 per kilogram to a reported minimum of EGP 399.72, while fish and seafood prices increased by 1.7%.<\/p>\n

Packaged sugar<\/a> rose from EGP 27 to between EGP 30 and EGP 33.80 per kilogram. Margarine reached EGP 105.08 per kilogram, up EGP 2.29, and packaged fava beans rose EGP 4.82 to EGP 59.98. Rice<\/a> moved unevenly, reaching approximately EGP 35.50 per kilogram in the first week before easing to around EGP 33. Some vegetables, including onions and potatoes, saw daily increases of 2\u20133%, while flour and lentil prices fluctuated.<\/p>\n

Supply Ministry ration-card commodities remained stable<\/a> during the month: sugar at EGP 12.60 per kilogram, an 800-milliliter bottle of blended oil at EGP 30, and flour at EGP 18 per kilogram. The ration system covers around 33 subsidized items.<\/p>\n

The gap between subsidized and open-market prices\u2014sugar at EGP 12.60 compared with up to EGP 33.80, for example\u2014reveals unequal routes to obtaining food. Some households rely partly or entirely on the open market, while ration-card beneficiaries can access relatively fixed government-supported prices.<\/p>\n

Economist and Socialist Popular Alliance Party leader Zuhdi El-Shami says households are approaching Ramadan amid marked increases in foods traditionally in greater demand during the month. Some producers and traders use this demand to impose further increases, adding to families\u2019 difficulty meeting basic needs, he argues.<\/p>\n

Government statements about stable prices refer to slower increases rather than actual price falls, he says. Inflation is calculated from already elevated price levels reached in previous years. This has forced some households to cut consumption, especially after the large increases in 2022, which he puts at close to 70%.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

El-Shami tells Zawia3 that monthly price growth, which had fallen to around 0.2% at the end of last year, rose again to approximately 1.2% in January. He attributes this to key food items, citing poultry increases of more than 40% over the past month, red meat increases of 20%, and rises in oil, sugar and rice. Nuts and traditional Ramadan dried-fruit assortments have become unaffordable for some consumers.<\/p>\n

The government has responded by importing frozen poultry and organizing Ahlan Ramadan fairs and state retail outlets. El-Shami considers these measures limited in effectiveness: imported frozen chicken was initially offered at EGP 115<\/a> before falling to EGP 100, close to local poultry prices, while advertised fair discounts differ little from those offered by major supermarket chains.<\/p>\n

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A concentrated market rather than competition<\/h2>\n

Soad El-Deeb, head of the Media Association for Consumer Protection, says seasonal increases in popular foods before Ramadan have recurred for years in a market controlled by a limited number of major traders. This sometimes drives the state to import supplies, as it previously did with chicken and eggs. This year\u2019s increases coincide with a relatively weaker dollar, she notes.<\/p>\n

She tells Zawia3 that markets had experienced weak sales before Ramadan demand grew. Food consumption increases during the month, while purchasing power has declined, prompting some consumers to reduce meat and poultry purchases and give up non-essential dried fruit and nuts.<\/p>\n

El-Deeb attributes variation in retail prices to multiple intermediaries along supply chains, which increase the final cost before goods reach consumers. She expects prices to fall after Ramadan and Eid Al-Fitr as seasonal demand subsides.<\/p>\n

Mahmoud El-Askalany, head of Citizens Against High Prices, reports continuing weak sales of meat and Ramadan goods such as dried fruit and nuts despite better availability than in previous years. He attributes this to high prices. Meat sales have fallen from last year as most consumers focus on essentials.<\/p>\n

Higher pre-Ramadan demand for foods such as sugar contributes to price rises, alongside some traders\u2019 efforts to expand profit margins, he says. Ahlan Ramadan fairs have improved availability and relatively restrained increases compared with the previous season, when the stronger dollar drove prices higher.<\/p>\n

El-Askalany tells Zawia3 that poultry rose by around EGP 30 per kilogram ahead of Ramadan. The government\u2019s subsequent announcement allowing frozen-poultry imports prompted producers and traders to reduce prices somewhat, though they remain high. Vegetables have not seen similarly large increases despite stronger demand because they are perishable.<\/p>\n

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Lower input costs, higher retail prices<\/h2>\n

The latest increases followed substantial declines in several basic input prices in January compared with the same month in 2024 and 2025. Zawia3 reviewed factory and farm wholesale-price data through the end of January 2026.<\/p>\n

Russian wheat described in the source data with an 11.5% specification fell from EGP 21,600 in January 2024 to EGP 12,400 in January 2026, a 42.6% decline over two years and 5.7% from 2025. Flour listed with the label \u201c24\u201d fell from EGP 24,000 to EGP 13,800, down 42.5% over two years and 11.8% annually. Flour labeled \u201c27\u201d fell from EGP 24,200 to EGP 14,000, down 42.2% over two years and 11.4% from the previous year.<\/p>\n

Refined palm olein fell from EGP 81,000 in 2024 to EGP 56,000 in 2026. Those quoted prices imply a decline of approximately 30.9% over two years; the Arabic text reports 24.7%, which does not match them. The report puts the 2025\u201326 decline at 8.9%. Refined sugar fell from EGP 34,000 to EGP 22,800, down 32.9% over two years and 21.9% over the latest year.<\/p>\n

Argentine and Brazilian yellow maize fell from EGP 19,800 in 2024 to EGP 12,000 in 2026, a decline of 39.4% over two years and 11.1% from the previous year. Ukrainian maize fell from EGP 18,900 to EGP 11,800, down 37.6% over two years and 6.4% annually.<\/p>\n

Local wide-grain white rice fell from EGP 29,800 in 2024 to EGP 24,000 in 2026, down 19.5% over two years and 14.3% from 2025. Local fava beans declined only slightly, from EGP 47,000 to EGP 46,000, or 2.1% over two years, after reaching EGP 48,000 in 2025. Imported fava beans fell from EGP 32,000 to EGP 26,000, down 18.8% over two years and 16.1% annually.<\/p>\n

White eggs, sold in 30-egg trays at the farm, fell from EGP 148 in January 2024 to EGP 110 in January 2026, down 25.7% over two years and 26.7% from January 2025, when the price was EGP 150.<\/p>\n

Alaa Ezz, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce and the Federation of African Chambers and adviser to the head of the Egyptian chambers federation, says wholesale prices for oil, wheat, maize, sugar and flour follow specified pricing indicators. Retail differences widen according to brands, packaging, transport and the margins added by wholesale, intermediate and retail traders.<\/p>\n

These differences are narrower in consumer cooperatives and Ahlan Ramadan fairs because supplies come directly from producers or importers, he says. Retail prices also vary by location and commercial rent. The factory, farm or importer\u2019s wholesale price remains the starting point for comparisons.<\/p>\n

Producers adjust prices as production costs change, Ezz adds. Repeated fuel increases last year raised transport costs, electricity bills and wages after the minimum-wage increase. The dollar\u2019s decline offset only a limited share of those increases. Distributors and retailers set final prices according to operating costs and local demand.<\/p>\n

\u201cEgyptian law criminalizes monopolistic practices such as withholding goods, but does not impose compulsory prices on most commodities,\u201d Ezz tells Zawia3. Traders can therefore set prices according to their costs, while consumers can choose among outlets.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He attributes recent egg and poultry increases to seasonal demand ahead of Ramadan, while saying current prices remain as much as 40% below those in the same period of 2024 and 2025 amid relative exchange-rate stability. The government has allowed frozen-poultry imports to contain increases.<\/p>\n

Ezz denies an increase in the official wholesale sugar price, attributing retail rises to the decision allowing exports. He says strategic sugar stocks exceed one million tonnes and cover more than a year of local consumption, while domestic prices remain below international ones.<\/p>\n

The seasonal-demand price cycle usually lasts around two weeks until supply stabilizes and household stockpiling slows, he says. Approximately 3,700 Ahlan Ramadan stalls and market sections operate across the governorates, offering discounted foods to reduce volatility.<\/p>\n

Ezz also lists essential-commodity reserves covering three to twelve months: oils for seven to eight months, wheat for four to six, and sugar for six to seven. That last figure differs from his earlier estimate of more than a year. He cites another 924,000 tonnes awaiting unloading at Egyptian ports and around 2.9 million tonnes en route, alongside ongoing contracts. Distribution-chain stocks cover an average of 47 days, while household stocks add approximately 19 days of consumption.<\/p>\n

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Inflation and falling purchasing power<\/h2>\n

Seasonal pre-Ramadan demand affects storable foods and could push prices higher as the month begins. Economist Ahmed Shawki says the inflation rate announced by the central bank this February fell slightly, by around 0.3 percentage points. He expects seasonal food-price inflation from February through mid-March.<\/p>\n

Shawki tells Zawia3 that the real value of household incomes has fallen after inflation previously approached 40% before easing to 11.9%, while wages failed to keep pace. Some families have reduced animal-protein consumption in favor of plant proteins. They still try to preserve Ramadan and Eid traditions by buying smaller quantities or choosing cheaper brands and outlets.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Consumer cooperatives and Ramadan fairs help restrain food prices by offering discounts, he says. Retail variations reflect different pricing practices governed by supply and demand. Lasting relative stability depends on stronger domestic production because imports cover a large share of food requirements.<\/p>\n

Pre-Ramadan increases come as official data show improvement in some aggregate indicators. Annual inflation in January 2026 was approximately 10.1% nationwide and 11.9% in urban areas, below the 2023 peak. The pound recently traded within a range of about EGP 46.70\u201346.90 to the dollar.<\/p>\n

Despite expectations of GDP growth above 4% this fiscal year and stable foreign reserves, many middle- and low-income households remain under pressure. The monthly minimum wage is EGP 7,000, while average private-sector wages are lower, limiting households\u2019 capacity to absorb repeated food-price increases.<\/p>\n

Shawki believes continued foreign-currency inflows from tourism, direct investment, manufacturing and remittances could help narrow the budget deficit and ease inflation over the medium term, gradually affecting price levels.<\/p>\n

February\u2019s increases reflect seasonal demand alongside structural food-market challenges. Official indicators show a relative downward inflation trend, but households continue to feel increases in particular foods, especially given the gap between open-market prices and subsidized outlets.<\/p>\n

With essential-food prices under pressure and purchasing power recovering slowly despite better aggregate indicators, affordability remains tied to differences in income and spending across social groups. Their sensitivity to price fluctuations is growing as Ramadan approaches.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Seasonal demand is driving food prices higher even as inflation indicators ease. Consumer advocates question whether Ramadan fairs can relieve household pressure amid wide gaps between wholesale, retail and subsidized prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[409],"tags":[],"kateb":[1550],"class_list":["post-16735","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics-en","kateb-aya-yasser"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/\u0631\u0645\u0636\u0627\u0646-\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0627-1.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16735","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16735"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16735\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16736,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16735\/revisions\/16736"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15130"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16735"},{"taxonomy":"kateb","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kateb?post=16735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}