{"id":17770,"date":"2026-10-08T10:50:17","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T08:50:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/?p=17770"},"modified":"2026-10-08T14:41:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T12:41:40","slug":"egypt-wheat-investment-food-security","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/egypt-wheat-investment-food-security\/","title":{"rendered":"How Are Emirati Investments Reshaping Egypt\u2019s Wheat Sector?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On 6 July 2026, Al Arabiya Business quoted a source at Emirati agricultural company Al Dahra as saying that it had increased deliveries of wheat grown in Egypt to the Egyptian government to 45,000 tonnes during the season, worth EGP 750 million. The company also announced the reclamation of another 1,000 feddans within its Toshka holdings, as part of a wider agricultural investment programme. These figures open a discussion that extends beyond the harvest to the terms governing access to land and water, and the return Egypt receives for making those resources available.<\/p>\n<p>Al Dahra describes itself as one of the Egyptian government\u2019s largest private-sector wheat suppliers. It has also been at the centre of a long debate about land allocation and pricing, including legal challenges seeking to invalidate its Toshka contracts, which involved a price of EGP 50 per feddan. A financing agreement announced in 2023, with a ceiling of $500 million over five years for supplies of wheat and essential goods to Egypt, added another dimension to that history. Bringing these developments together, however, requires a clear distinction between domestic agricultural production and imports.<\/p>\n<p>The company\u2019s role in procurement has prompted economists to question the project\u2019s benefits and terms, particularly amid suggestions that wheat grown on Egyptian land is sold to the government in dollars. The sources reviewed for this report do not establish that Al Dahra accounts for most government wheat purchases. Nor do they support applying the currency of an import-financing agreement to the output of its Egyptian farms. These are different activities, even when the same company participates in both.<\/p>\n<p>In the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alarabiya.net\/aswaq\/exclusive\/2026\/07\/06\/\u0627\u0644\u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629-\u062a\u0648\u0631\u062f-45-\u0627\u0644\u0641-\u0637\u0646-\u0642\u0645\u062d-\u0644\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u064a\u0629-\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644-750-\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646-\u062c\u0646\u064a\u0647\">Al Arabiya Business report<\/a>, the company\u2019s source said that its Egyptian wheat was supplied in Egyptian pounds at the official procurement price. Economist Hany Tawfik also posted a clarification on Facebook, presented as a right of reply, setting out the company\u2019s response concerning its investment, employment of Egyptians and sales at the official price. Distinguishing that response from an assessment of investment terms remains essential: correcting the currency claim does not settle the wider questions about land, water and public benefit.<\/p>\n<p>The separate arrangement was announced by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.adex.ae\/en\/media-center\/news\/15\/8\/2023\/adex-and-egyptian-government-sign-us100-million-revolving-financing-agreement-for-a-5-year-term\">Abu Dhabi Exports Office, ADEX, in August 2023<\/a>. It provided for a $100 million revolving financing facility, with annual renewals planned over five years, potentially reaching $500 million, to facilitate purchases of wheat and essential goods through Al Dahra. On 26 August 2026, the company <a href=\"https:\/\/aldahra.com\/al-dahra-abu-dhabi-exports-office-and-egypts-gasc-move-from-framework-to-execution-with-five-year-wheat-supply-agreement\/\">announced an implementation agreement<\/a> with ADEX and Egypt\u2019s General Authority for Supply Commodities, GASC, explicitly identifying imported wheat as its subject. The figure is the programme\u2019s ceiling, rather than evidence that the full amount has been disbursed or paid for crops grown in Egypt. Questions about the terms of import financing and its relationship to domestic production policy nevertheless remain relevant.<\/p>\n<div class=\"z3-article-separator\" role=\"separator\" aria-label=\"Section divider\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 140 4269 130\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M120 211H4149\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#7e7e7e\" stroke-width=\"10\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<h2>Toshka: Land at EGP 50 per feddan<\/h2>\n<p>The Emirati company\u2019s expansion in Egypt was closely associated with Toshka, where it was allocated 100,000 feddans at EGP 50 per feddan, according to the account underlying the legal challenge announced in 2011. Debate over the allocation process and land pricing continued in subsequent years, before the company\u2019s holding in the project was reduced by more than 62,000 feddans. Reports citing project sources attributed the withdrawal to missed reclamation and cultivation deadlines. That explanation must be distinguished from any finding about the outcome of the earlier court case.<\/p>\n<p>Launched in southern Egypt in the 1990s, Toshka was one of the state\u2019s largest schemes for agricultural and urban expansion beyond the Nile Valley and Delta. It aimed to reclaim hundreds of thousands of feddans and relocate some agricultural activity to desert areas. The state invested heavily in the project\u2019s infrastructure, including pumping stations, water networks, canals and associated engineering works, before assigning extensive areas to Egyptian and Gulf investors.<\/p>\n<p>The scheme depends on moving water from Lake Nasser to reclaimed land through pumping stations and canals, as described by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mwri.gov.eg\/?lang=en&amp;page_id=7088\">Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation<\/a>. As investment expanded and the project was revived, large areas were distributed among different companies and institutions, including Gulf-linked investors. The public cost of preparing those lands is central to the question of what the state should expect in return.<\/p>\n<p>A February 2020 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.siyada.org\/saker\/\u0633\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629-\u063a\u0630\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629\/\u0643\u064a\u0641-\u062a\u062d\u0642\u0642-\u0645\u064a\u0627\u0647-\u0645\u0635\u0631-\u0623\u0645\u0646-\u062f\u0648\u0644-\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u064a\u062c-\u0627\u0644\u063a\u0630\u0627\u0626\/\">report by the Siyada network<\/a>, citing a 2014 Central Auditing Organization report, contrasted a sale price of EGP 50 per feddan in some Toshka contracts with a market estimate of EGP 11,000. This report did not obtain an independent copy of that underlying audit document. The comparison is therefore attributed to the published account, rather than presented as a current land valuation. The broader issue is how costs are shared between publicly financed main infrastructure and the internal reclamation, irrigation, drainage and pumping works borne by investors on their plots.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%;\"><iframe id=\"zw-w1\" title=\"Infographic: land price in Toshka\" style=\"border: none; display: block; width: 100%; height: 520px;\" src=\"https:\/\/agamalziada.github.io\/wheat-egypt\/en-wheat-chart1-land-price.html\" width=\"100%\" height=\"50\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><script>!function(){var e=document.getElementById(\"zw-w1\");window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(m){if(m.data&&m.data.type===\"chartResize\"&&m.source===e.contentWindow)e.style.height=m.data.height+\"px\";});}();<\/script><\/div>\n<p>In April 2011, the <a href=\"https:\/\/ecesr.org\/\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632-\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u064a-\u064a\u0633\u0639\u0649-\u0644\u0625\u0628\u0637\u0627\u0644-\u0639\u0642\u062f-\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629-\u0627\u0644\u0638\/\">Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights<\/a> announced a lawsuit challenging the contract, referring to a State Council advisory opinion issued on 9 February that year. An advisory opinion and a legal challenge are not, by themselves, a final judgment invalidating the contract or proof that the entire holding was recovered through a court order. The sources reviewed did not include a final judgment establishing the case\u2019s outcome.<\/p>\n<p>The centre challenged land pricing, contracting procedures and compliance with the then-applicable tendering law and desert-land ownership limits. It also announced complaint 6525 of 2011 alleging waste of public funds and facilitation of their appropriation. Those remain the complainants\u2019 allegations, rather than a proven judicial conviction of officials or the company.<\/p>\n<p>In January 2020, <a href=\"https:\/\/almalnews.com\/659452\/\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u0629-\u062a\u0633\u062d\u0628-163-\u0623\u0644\u0641-\u0641\u062f\u0627\u0646-\u0645\u0646-3\/\">Al Mal reported<\/a>, citing an official circular it said it had obtained, that the government had withdrawn approximately 62,448 feddans from Al Dahra\u2019s Toshka allocation in late 2019, leaving about 37,552 feddans. It quoted project sources linking the decision to delayed reclamation. This administrative action must be kept separate from the earlier litigation. A change to the company\u2019s Toshka holding alone also does not establish the total area it holds in other regions.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%;\"><iframe id=\"zw-w2\" title=\"Infographic: Al Dahra in Toshka\" style=\"border: none; display: block; width: 100%; height: 560px;\" src=\"https:\/\/agamalziada.github.io\/wheat-egypt\/en-wheat-chart2-toshka.html\" width=\"100%\" height=\"50\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><script>!function(){var e=document.getElementById(\"zw-w2\");window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(m){if(m.data&&m.data.type===\"chartResize\"&&m.source===e.contentWindow)e.style.height=m.data.height+\"px\";});}();<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Despite the reduction of its original Toshka allocation, the company continued operating elsewhere. In a <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/1884.pdf\">November 2024 statement<\/a>, it reported a portfolio of around 67,000 feddans in Egypt, including more than 40,000 irrigated feddans, across four farms in Toshka, East Oweinat and Salhiya. These were company-reported figures at a particular date, rather than an independent inventory of its present holdings or the area planted with wheat during the 2026 season.<\/p>\n<p>The company said it had invested more than $250 million in Egypt since beginning operations, including land reclamation and modern agricultural development, and had built a 20-megawatt solar power plant.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%;\"><iframe id=\"zw-w3\" title=\"Infographic: Al Dahra by its own figures\" style=\"border: none; display: block; width: 100%; height: 420px;\" src=\"https:\/\/agamalziada.github.io\/wheat-egypt\/en-wheat-chart3-aldahra.html\" width=\"100%\" height=\"50\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><script>!function(){var e=document.getElementById(\"zw-w3\");window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(m){if(m.data&&m.data.type===\"chartResize\"&&m.source===e.contentWindow)e.style.height=m.data.height+\"px\";});}();<\/script><\/div>\n<div class=\"z3-article-separator\" role=\"separator\" aria-label=\"Section divider\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 140 4269 130\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M120 211H4149\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#7e7e7e\" stroke-width=\"10\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<h2>Emirati investment beyond one company<\/h2>\n<p>In February 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.albayan.ae\/expo\/news\/2022-02-21-1.4374383\">Al Bayan quoted<\/a> Egypt\u2019s then agriculture minister, El Sayed El Quseir, as putting Emirati investment in agricultural production in Egypt at more than $7 billion. That was a statement made at the time, rather than a new estimate for 2026. An aggregate investment figure also does not, by itself, show how funds are divided between acquiring existing assets, reclaiming and equipping new land, or financing trade.<\/p>\n<p>The sources reviewed did not provide a comprehensive, current official database of Gulf companies\u2019 land holdings. In August 2026, Masr360 cited independent estimates of around 450,000 feddans held by Gulf companies, including 306,000 by Emirati companies, with Saudi investors prominent in the remainder. The figures were not accompanied by a unified, detailed schedule distinguishing ownership, leases and allocations or dating each holding. They therefore cannot independently establish a verified current share of Egypt\u2019s agricultural land.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%;\"><iframe id=\"zw-w4\" title=\"Infographic: Gulf companies land\" style=\"border: none; display: block; width: 100%; height: 560px;\" src=\"https:\/\/agamalziada.github.io\/wheat-egypt\/en-wheat-chart4-gulf-land.html\" width=\"100%\" height=\"50\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><script>!function(){var e=document.getElementById(\"zw-w4\");window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(m){if(m.data&&m.data.type===\"chartResize\"&&m.source===e.contentWindow)e.style.height=m.data.height+\"px\";});}();<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Al Dahra grows wheat, maize, sugar beet, forage and other crops. In its November 2024 statement, it described itself as Egypt\u2019s largest private wheat producer during the preceding three years. It said it had supplied 450,000 tonnes of wheat to government silos since beginning operations, estimating import-bill savings of more than $250 million, and reported production of over 300,000 tonnes of maize and sugar beet. A separate company post referred to deliveries of more than 470,000 tonnes of sugar beet and maize over five years. These disclosures cover different crops and periods. They cannot be added together as one season\u2019s output, and sugar beet must not be described as manufactured sugar.<\/p>\n<p>Other Emirati agricultural investments include NRTC Food Holding\u2019s acquisition of Al Hashemeya farms in Wadi El Natrun. The <a href=\"https:\/\/nrtcgroup.com\/a-closer-look-at-nrtc-farm-in-al-hashemeya-egypt\/\">company\u2019s website<\/a> identifies the complex as covering approximately 10,000 acres, with around 70% cultivated. The source uses acres, not Egyptian feddans, so the units cannot be substituted without an explicit conversion. The cultivated share alone does not establish water-use efficiency or show that the rest can immediately be planted with a particular crop.<\/p>\n<p>NRTC reports more than two million fruit trees and annual production capacity of up to 70,000 tonnes. Its stated crop portfolio includes citrus, mangoes, grapes, olives, dates, wheat and sugar beet, alongside centre-pivot irrigation and solar power. Wheat is therefore not absent from the declared portfolio. Nor should maximum capacity be treated as output achieved every year. The holdings illustrate a mix of fruit and other agricultural production, rather than an investment focused solely on grain procurement.<\/p>\n<p>Jenan provides another example of changing crop strategies. In statements published in November and December 2013, the company described shifting from livestock forage to wheat in Egypt following forage-business losses and direction from Abu Dhabi. More recent reporting describes olive, date and forage activities in Minya and East Oweinat, but this report did not verify a current independent inventory of its crops and cultivated areas. The historical example shows how profitability and investment direction can change cropping decisions. Announcing a shift in one year does not establish that the same strategy has continued unchanged.<\/p>\n<p>Economic researcher Mohamed Ramadan says assessing Al Dahra\u2019s role in Egypt\u2019s wheat sector requires comparing its output with the country\u2019s overall needs. The quantities the company reports delivering to the government remain limited relative to total national consumption, he argues.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking to Zawia3, Ramadan explains that a single company\u2019s output cannot, on its own, settle the question of self-sufficiency, even if it is among the largest domestic suppliers. Establishing the scale of demand also requires distinguishing total consumption, imports and subsidized-bread requirements. These are different measures, not interchangeable estimates. The US Department of Agriculture\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.fas.usda.gov\/newgainapi\/api\/Report\/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain+and+Feed+Annual_Cairo_Egypt_EG2026-0002.pdf\">March 2026 report<\/a> forecast Egyptian wheat consumption at 20.3 million tonnes for marketing year 2026\/2027, substantially more than the subsidized-bread programme\u2019s needs alone.<\/p>\n<p>Foreign companies growing wheat in Egypt can make a positive economic contribution when they produce a strategic crop the country needs, Ramadan says. But the more important issue, in his view, is how limited water resources are used and which crops receive that water.<\/p>\n<p>Ramadan describes mounting pressure on Egypt\u2019s water resources, with per-capita availability below the water-poverty threshold as population grows and available resources remain broadly constrained. This makes priorities for agricultural water use a matter of economic and strategic importance.<\/p>\n<p>He argues that agricultural investment should be assessed not only by the area companies control or the volume they produce, but also by crop type, water consumption and the resulting economic and social return.<\/p>\n<p>Pointing to Al Dahra\u2019s extensive holdings in areas such as Toshka, Ramadan asks what is grown alongside wheat and how much water each crop requires. However, wheat yield cannot be calculated by dividing wheat output by the company\u2019s entire reported land portfolio. That portfolio includes different crops and regions, potentially uncultivated land and multiple cropping cycles. Answering the question requires data on the area actually planted with wheat, the season, its output and its water consumption.<\/p>\n<p>The issue extends beyond Al Dahra to other Gulf agricultural investments, Ramadan adds. Some land may be used for export-oriented crops such as alfalfa, which consumes substantial quantities of water. He connects that choice to the investor\u2019s calculation of commercial returns.<\/p>\n<p>Wheat is not necessarily the most attractive crop for an investor seeking export revenue, compared with crops fetching higher returns abroad, he explains. This can help explain why some agricultural investment targets exports rather than the strategic staples Egypt needs domestically.<\/p>\n<p>For Ramadan, the wider policy challenge is reconciling investment attraction with food-security goals. He calls for clearer policies on the crops intended for newly developed agricultural land, particularly under conditions of water scarcity.<\/p>\n<div class=\"z3-article-separator\" role=\"separator\" aria-label=\"Section divider\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 140 4269 130\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M120 211H4149\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#7e7e7e\" stroke-width=\"10\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<h2>What happened to the self-sufficiency targets?<\/h2>\n<p>Egypt is among the world\u2019s largest wheat importers. Establishing its import bill, however, requires a defined year, quantities, prices and data coverage, rather than treating a dollar range as a permanent annual cost. On 5 May 2026, Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.net\/ebusiness\/2026\/5\/5\/\u0645\u0635\u0631-\u062a\u0647\u062f\u0641-\u0644\u0644\u0627\u0643\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0621-\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0627-\u0645\u0646-\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0645\u062d-\u0644\u0644\u062e\u0628\u0632\">told Reuters<\/a> that the government aimed to become self-sufficient in wheat for subsidized bread by 2028. The report put the programme\u2019s requirements in the proposed 2026\/2027 budget at approximately 8.6 million tonnes. This target concerns subsidized bread, not the elimination of imports for every wheat use in Egypt.<\/p>\n<p>Reuters contrasted the 2028 date with an earlier 2027 target announced by Mostakbal Misr head Bahaa El Ghannam in May 2025. Describing a postponement depends on comparing those two dated statements. The later announcement should not be inserted into an older account as if it had already been known at the time. The scope of the target, wheat for subsidized bread, must also be preserved when discussing either date.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%;\"><iframe id=\"zw-w5\" title=\"Infographic: wheat needs\" style=\"border: none; display: block; width: 100%; height: 560px;\" src=\"https:\/\/agamalziada.github.io\/wheat-egypt\/en-wheat-chart5-needs.html\" width=\"100%\" height=\"50\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><script>!function(){var e=document.getElementById(\"zw-w5\");window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(m){if(m.data&&m.data.type===\"chartResize\"&&m.source===e.contentWindow)e.style.height=m.data.height+\"px\";});}();<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Egypt\u2019s grain-buying arrangements changed in late 2024, as Mostakbal Misr, the Future of Egypt agency, assumed a leading role in government imports. That does not mean all national imports became government purchases, or that GASC disappeared from contractual arrangements. Al Dahra\u2019s August 2026 announcement still identifies GASC as the buyer in its imported-wheat agreement. Procurement management, the contracting buyer and private-sector imports therefore need to be distinguished.<\/p>\n<p>Import figures also differ according to the reporting date and reference period. On 30 December 2025, Al Arabiya Business reported approximately 13.2 million tonnes for that calendar year, compared with around 14.2 million in 2024. USDA reports, by contrast, use marketing years that span two calendar years. Its <a href=\"https:\/\/fas.usda.gov\/data\/gain\/2026\/09\/egypt-grain-and-feed-update\">28 September 2026 update<\/a> forecast imports of about 12 million tonnes for 2026\/2027. A calendar-year figure and a marketing-year estimate cannot be treated as a directly comparable series, and a seasonal forecast is not a completed final result.<\/p>\n<p>In an earlier interview <a href=\"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/future-of-egypt\/\">published by Zawia3 on 4 February 2026<\/a>, former supply-ministry adviser Nader Noureldin said Mostakbal Misr oversaw wheat imports for the ration-card and subsidized-bread system. He estimated that share at around five million tonnes annually, with the private sector covering more than 7.5 million tonnes of the wider market\u2019s needs. Those estimates are presented in their original time context, rather than as new customs figures or an inventory of every current contract.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%;\"><iframe id=\"zw-w6\" title=\"Infographic: wheat imports\" style=\"border: none; display: block; width: 100%; height: 600px;\" src=\"https:\/\/agamalziada.github.io\/wheat-egypt\/en-wheat-chart6-imports.html\" width=\"100%\" height=\"50\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><script>!function(){var e=document.getElementById(\"zw-w6\");window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(m){if(m.data&&m.data.type===\"chartResize\"&&m.source===e.contentWindow)e.style.height=m.data.height+\"px\";});}();<\/script><\/div>\n<p>The earlier Zawia3 report described Mostakbal Misr as a government body established under presidential decree 591 of 2022 and headed by Bahaa El Ghannam. It examined the agency\u2019s role in land reclamation, commodity imports, food production and other projects. The issue here is its expanding remit, procurement mechanisms and data transparency, rather than an assumption that one private company or government body controls all wheat consumed in Egypt.<\/p>\n<div class=\"z3-article-separator\" role=\"separator\" aria-label=\"Section divider\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 140 4269 130\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M120 211H4149\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#7e7e7e\" stroke-width=\"10\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<h2>Why not grow more wheat at home?<\/h2>\n<p>Khaled Ayyad, a professor at the Agricultural Research Center, tells Zawia3 that Egypt has the technical capacity to achieve high levels of domestic wheat production. Expanding strategic crops, especially wheat, should be a central component of national agricultural and food policy, he argues.<\/p>\n<p>Foreign agricultural investment can be useful when accompanied by clear conditions directing land towards crops the country needs, Ayyad explains. Assigning agricultural land to investors is not inherently a problem, provided there are clear commitments to supply domestic production to the state and meet part of the Egyptian market\u2019s requirements.<\/p>\n<p>He points to foreign investment that has produced positive results, particularly in citrus and export crops, improving quality and strengthening Egyptian produce\u2019s competitiveness internationally. Land-use contracts should nevertheless contain food-security requirements, he says, so that investors\u2019 activities do not focus exclusively on exports while Egypt continues importing strategic crops that could be grown domestically.<\/p>\n<p>Ayyad refers to Egypt\u2019s experience in increasing wheat production and argues that higher self-sufficiency is attainable. In his assessment, the constraints are not exclusively technical or agricultural, but also concern market policy, imports and procurement. His interview included a suggestion that Egypt had previously approached self-sufficiency, without a specified year or statistical series that would establish that comparison. It is therefore presented as his assessment of the country\u2019s experience and potential, not as a settled historical finding about total national consumption.<\/p>\n<p>Egypt has agricultural capabilities that could support increased wheat output, including varieties able to tolerate relatively high salinity, he says. These could enable cultivation in additional areas. Expanding the use of varieties suited to Egyptian conditions could therefore contribute to greater self-sufficiency.<\/p>\n<p>The feasibility of expansion nevertheless remains tied to available water, energy costs, reclamation and storage, and the actual performance of varieties in each location. The ability to cultivate a salt-tolerant variety does not eliminate resource constraints. Nor does increased production automatically ensure that the state can buy the required quantities at workable prices throughout the year.<\/p>\n<p>For large agricultural projects such as Toshka, Ayyad argues that investments benefiting from infrastructure on which the state has spent billions of pounds should deliver a direct return to Egyptian food security, especially where a strategic crop such as wheat is concerned.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIf the state gives an investor land on the basis that wheat will be grown, it is logical for the main objective to be helping meet the local market\u2019s needs, with the surplus then directed to exports, rather than for the state to continue importing wheat at the same time,\u201d Ayyad says.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p>For Mohamed Ramadan, wheat is \u201ca commodity that goes beyond economics into politics,\u201d because of its connection to food security, market stability and the state\u2019s ability to provide bread.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The question of self-sufficiency is more complicated than whether a particular company grows wheat and sells it to the government, Ramadan argues. It is also linked to the prevailing agricultural and economic model and to how government policy treats small farmers.<\/p>\n<p>A substantial part of Egyptian wheat production does not enter government procurement, he says. Farmers retain some for household consumption or storage, within what he describes as subsistence farming or production for family needs. Total output and the quantities purchased by the state are therefore not the same measure.<\/p>\n<p>A small farmer may have to choose between growing wheat for local consumption and other crops, particularly those serving export markets. Rising costs for inputs, including fertilizer, make that decision more difficult, Ramadan adds.<\/p>\n<p>The state cannot address wheat supply in isolation from these factors, he argues. Achieving higher self-sufficiency requires reconsidering a wider range of agricultural and economic policies, rather than simply increasing the acreage cultivated by large investment companies.<\/p>\n<div class=\"z3-article-separator\" role=\"separator\" aria-label=\"Section divider\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 140 4269 130\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M120 211H4149\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"#7e7e7e\" stroke-width=\"10\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1718\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"1930\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2142\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2354\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"211\" r=\"56\" fill=\"#fafafa\" stroke=\"#9c9c9c\" stroke-width=\"3\"\/><circle cx=\"2566\" cy=\"202\" r=\"50\" fill=\"#647580\" stroke=\"#4e5962\" stroke-width=\"4\"\/><\/svg><\/div>\n<h2>Is imported wheat safe?<\/h2>\n<p>Ayyad warns that continuing to depend on wheat imports despite opportunities to expand domestic production places additional pressure on the import bill, particularly because purchases require foreign currency. Increasing self-sufficiency, he argues, could ease demands on Egypt\u2019s dollar resources.<\/p>\n<p>On quality, he calls for stronger inspection agencies and specialized laboratories capable of testing imported shipments. Some pests, fungi and mycotoxins cannot be adequately detected through visual examination alone, he explains. Proper testing requires equipped laboratories and trained personnel.<\/p>\n<p>An effective, independent inspection system is essential to protecting the domestic market, particularly when handling large imported wheat consignments, Ayyad says. Egypt needs the technical and institutional capacity to reject any shipment that fails to meet health standards and specifications, regardless of its origin.<\/p>\n<p>This is an argument for stronger safeguards, not proof that imported wheat in general, or any particular shipment, is unsafe. This report does not present laboratory results establishing the condition of a specific consignment. Assessing compliance requires sampling, testing and published standards, rather than a judgment based solely on origin or on a general impression of imports.<\/p>\n<p>Ayyad argues that wheat self-sufficiency should be regarded not simply as an agricultural target but as a matter of national food and economic security. Egypt\u2019s resources and agricultural expertise give it scope to increase production of staple crops, he says.<\/p>\n<p>The challenge, in his view, is balancing foreign investment with the protection of the country\u2019s economic and food interests. Foreign investors are part of the economy: they bring funds and generate opportunities for employment, production and exports. Agricultural investment consequently needs to be considered through a broader framework that is not limited to one crop or one sector.<\/p>\n<p>He calls for clear land-use conditions that allow investments to serve several objectives simultaneously: supporting food security, increasing output, raising quality and strengthening exports. Rather than deepening dependence on imported strategic commodities, investment should contribute to a stable policy framework connecting land allocation, local production, procurement, imports and food-quality monitoring. He considers greater wheat self-sufficiency agriculturally achievable, while emphasizing the need for clear and consistent policies.<\/p>\n<p>Foreign agricultural investment is not inherently a problem. It can support production, technology, exports and jobs. But its value cannot be measured solely by capital invested or crops harvested. It must also be assessed by what it contributes to Egypt\u2019s ability to secure food, and how it uses resources that cannot simply be replaced, particularly land and water.<\/p>\n<p>As the government targets domestic provision of wheat for subsidized bread by 2028, the central question remains: when the state invests in reclamation and infrastructure while facing water pressures, how should contracts and policy establish a clear balance between investor profitability and Egyptians\u2019 food needs? Answering requires reviewable data and explicit, measurable conditions. It also requires keeping domestic production, import financing and food safety distinct within the same wider debate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Al Dahra\u2019s role in Egypt raises questions about land, water and food security. This report separates locally grown wheat from import financing and examines the subsidized-bread target.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":17769,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[409],"tags":[18037,18036,18040,1673,18038,18035,18039,655,4598],"kateb":[1110],"class_list":["post-17770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics-en","tag-agricultural-investment","tag-al-dahra","tag-emirati-investment","tag-food-security","tag-subsidized-bread","tag-toshka","tag-water-resources","tag-wheat","tag-wheat-imports","kateb-merit-ashhad"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/wheat-food-security-cover-grey-turquoise.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17770"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17770\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17833,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17770\/revisions\/17833"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17770"},{"taxonomy":"kateb","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kateb?post=17770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}