{"id":19753,"date":"2026-10-18T13:04:24","date_gmt":"2026-10-18T11:04:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/?p=19753"},"modified":"2026-10-18T13:10:51","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T11:10:51","slug":"egypt-forum-2026-promises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zawia3.com\/en\/egypt-forum-2026-promises\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cGive Me Two Years\u201d Became Twelve: What the State\u2019s Figures Say Ahead of Egypt Forum 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Coinciding with the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty<\/a>, observed on 17 October each year, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly will open Egypt Forum 2026 on Monday, 19 October, in the New Administrative Capital. Around 9,000 citizens will participate, selected<\/a> from 61,329 applicants through the forum\u2019s website, which launched on 1 October and closed registration on 12 October. Sessions will run until 24 October. Cabinet spokesperson Mohamed Adel says the forum is being held \u201cin implementation of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi\u2019s directives\u201d and that, in its first five days, it received<\/a> more than 10 million views, 50,000 registrations and 10,000 ideas. Of these, 2,500 contributions were published across 19 sectors. Its two main priorities, he says, are \u201ctransparency\u201d in presenting what has been achieved and then identifying targets for the next phase. The official website<\/a> defines the forum\u2019s purpose as assessing how public policies affect citizens\u2019 living standards and service quality, and measuring how far the benefits of development reach the intended groups and regions, drawing on official data, citizens\u2019 experiences and expert analysis. It covers four themes<\/a>: human development; integrated development and citizens\u2019 quality of life; social protection and security; and the economy. State television presented it as an opportunity<\/a> to discuss progress towards Egypt\u2019s Vision 2030 targets, while state newspapers described it as a presentation<\/a> of achievements on the ground.<\/p>\n

The question the forum asks itself is the same one Zawia3 puts to it in this report: after twelve years of appeals for patience, what do figures produced by the state itself and published by international institutions say about Egyptians\u2019 incomes and work, what they pay and what they receive? This report examines ten indicators between President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi\u2019s accession to office in 2014 and today. It compares them with the promises that accompanied them and the numerical targets the state set itself in the updated Vision 2030, leaving readers to judge.<\/p>\n

Explaining why the forum is being held at this particular moment, economist Elhami al-Merghany, deputy leader of the Socialist Popular Alliance Party, says Egypt is approaching a package of harsh measures. In his view, the government is preparing public opinion to accept their cost while promising better conditions in the future. He tells Zawia3 that citizens have become accustomed to expressions such as \u201cyears of drought\u201d and \u201cthe bottleneck\u201d without feeling that they have passed through this phase or emerged into better circumstances. He says he was not invited to the forum, adding: My economic positions are well known. I have always called for development based on agriculture and industry, rather than contracting and real estate; for reducing imports; and for encouraging genuine investment that adds new productive assets, meets domestic market needs, generates added value, creates jobs and allows surpluses to be exported. He believes the government constantly relies on loyal media that discuss only achievements, while serious discussion of shortcomings, problems and failures is neither heard nor seen.<\/p>\n

Economist Dr Wael al-Nahhas criticises what he considers the lack of practical value in Egypt Forum 2026. He sees it as closer to an attempt to justify the government\u2019s performance over recent years and showcase what it considers achievements, rather than discuss shortcomings and seek solutions to the economic crisis. Al-Nahhas tells Zawia3 that he declined an invitation to participate because, in his view, the forum resembles a \u201ccertificate of experience\u201d granted to the government before it leaves the scene. He says its purpose is to justify the policies pursued during the period of so-called economic reform and present its record as a set of achievements, despite the burdens citizens have borne. He adds that the forum will yield no genuine benefit unless it becomes a space for serious discussion and policy change, describing it as closer to \u201cabsolving the government of responsibility for this entire past period\u201d.<\/p>\n

For her part, economist Dr Alia al-Mahdi tells Zawia3 that assessing Egypt Forum 2026 depends on how far the government responds to economists\u2019 proposals during its sessions and whether they become workable policies and measures. \u201cWhat matters is the outcome,\u201d she says. She notes that she has been invited and that attending will allow her to express her views on the issues under discussion. Such events succeed not simply by taking place, she explains, but through the use made of participants\u2019 recommendations. \u201cIf economists\u2019 views are taken on board and implemented, at least some of what we say will be put into practice,\u201d she adds. She warns that ignoring those views could make the forum resemble previous experiences, including the National Dialogue, which she describes as frustrating. The economist preferred to present her views during the forum and postpone further discussion until it concludes.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, MP Mohamed Fouad tells Zawia3 that there is a clear contradiction between the government\u2019s readiness to showcase its achievements at a conference and its continued delay in releasing data that would allow parliament and citizens to assess the impact of its policies on living standards. Foremost among these are the latest poverty figures and the results of the Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey. He notes that last April, the House of Representatives\u2019 Economic Affairs Committee gave the Ministry of Planning one week to provide the latest poverty data. Yet the results remain unavailable<\/a>, despite roughly six months having passed since that deadline. He says representatives of the Planning Ministry and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics responded to a parliamentary request for a briefing submitted by MP Irene Saeed<\/a> by stating that the report was complete and undergoing technical review before publication. The meeting ended with an instruction to refer it to the committee within a week. He asks: What is still preventing the results from being published?<\/p>\n

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Twelve years of \u201cbe patient\u201d<\/h2>\n

On 26 March 2014, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, then minister of defence and military production, announced<\/a> his resignation and intention to run for president. He pledged to address the weak economy, unemployment and disease, rebuild state institutions and restore production. He said Egyptians deserved a better life with the essentials of a livelihood, work, housing, security, freedom and dignity. He was not promising miracles, he said, but committing to work towards stability, security and hope. In September that year, after winning the election, he asked<\/a> Egyptians for two years: \u201cBe patient with me for two years, work with me, and hold me accountable afterwards.\u201d He added that he did not intend to remain in power for twenty years and that \u201cif there is someone more capable than me, let them take my place immediately\u201d.<\/p>\n

Further appeals for patience followed, each with a renewed deadline: six months in December 2016<\/a>, alongside instructions to the government to control prices and a call for businesspeople to help address the crisis; another year in April 2017<\/a>, after which elections would allow citizens to choose whomever they wished, \u201cand may God help and guide whoever comes\u201d; \u201cBe patient with me a little, be patient a little longer\u201d in May 2018<\/a>, when discussing food prices; and \u201cDo not let anyone discourage you, and you will see extraordinary wonders in Egypt\u201d in July 2018<\/a>. Days later came a promise that Egypt would be \u201ccompletely different\u201d by 30 June<\/a> 2020, achieving gas self-sufficiency and moving beyond it to higher production levels. \u201cIf you want your country to be in good shape, there is no option but patience and work,\u201d he said in September 2023<\/a>; and \u201cIf it continues like this for 10 or 15 years, we will be somewhere else,\u201d in December 2024<\/a>. The latest deadline came three weeks ago. On 29 September 2026, at a meeting at the Strategic Command headquarters in the New Administrative Capital attended by the government, governors, army and police leaders and village headmen, the president said<\/a> that the events of 2011 to 2013 had caused the economy to contract and that \u201crecovery from this could take up to 15 years\u201d, according to the presidential spokesperson\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n

Between those deadlines, a \u201cnew state and a new republic\u201d<\/a> were born, in the president\u2019s words when describing the New Administrative Capital as a means of improving citizens\u2019 lives. Of all the promises, one can be tested precisely because it had a date: gas self-sufficiency. On 29 September 2018, then petroleum minister Tarek al-Molla announced<\/a> receipt of the last imported gas shipment and declared that \u201cthe era of importing is over\u201d. But Egypt returned to importing<\/a> liquefied natural gas in November 2023. It then imported<\/a> 985 billion cubic feet between July 2025 and June 2026 after average production fell below 4.4 billion cubic feet per day. It is now negotiating import contracts lasting three to five years, whose annual cost Reuters estimates at between $8 billion and $11 billion.<\/p>\n

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Per capita dollars barely moved; the pound lost seven-eighths of its value<\/h2>\n

The simplest measure of what has reached citizens is their share of output in dollars. According to the World Bank<\/a>, Egypt\u2019s GDP per capita was $3,133 in 2014 and $3,338 in 2024. That is an increase of 6.5 percent over ten years at current prices, according to Zawia3\u2019s calculations, after rising to $4,233 in 2022 and then falling following the pound\u2019s flotation. Over the same period, the pound fell from around 7.15 to the dollar in mid-2014, according to<\/a> Central Bank exchange rates, to around EGP 48.3 today, losing roughly 85 percent of its value against the dollar.<\/p>\n