Annual inflation in Egypt fell to 12% last October, but the overall price level has doubled in four years. Rents, energy, transport and education rose by between 20% and 28% in a single year, while the official figure is still weighted according to spending patterns recorded in a 2017\/2018 survey. The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics did not respond to Zawia3\u2019s questions about when those weights would be updated.<\/p>\n
At a large supermarket on Port Said Street in Cairo, employee Michael Sami says falling sales have prompted shop owners to cut staff. His employer used to have around 20 workers but was forced to make do with half that number as sales declined and profit margins narrowed. He adds that some shops that once recorded monthly sales of EGP 1 million (around $18,500) now bring in only EGP 200,000 to 300,000 (approximately $3,700 to $5,550), in his estimation. Declining purchasing power, he says, affects not only households but also traders and workers in consumer-facing businesses.<\/p>\n
Official data say price increases are slowing: nationwide annual inflation fell<\/a> to 12% in October 2026 from 12.8% in September. Yet this figure combines widely divergent movements. Actual housing rents rose<\/a> by 27.7% year on year, transport by 22.3%, and electricity, gas and other fuels by 22.8%. The combined housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel category rose<\/a> by 24.1%, education by 20%, and restaurants and hotels by 13.2%, while food and beverages increased by just 7.5%. The agency calculates this figure using a basket whose components are weighted according to household spending patterns in the 2017\/2018 Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey, before the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the war on Iran. It did not answer Zawia3\u2019s questions about why those weights have not yet been updated.<\/p>\n October\u2019s decline did not follow an uninterrupted downward path. Urban inflation rose from 11.9% in January to 13.4% in February, then peaked at 15.2% in March before gradually falling to 12.7% in October, its lowest level<\/a> in nine months. The March jump coincided with the war on Iran and disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which drove up global oil prices and passed costs on to energy, transport and production inputs in Egypt. The government raised petroleum product prices by EGP 3. Vegetables recorded exceptional increases, with some, such as tomatoes, exceeding 200%, while poultry prices rose by around 25%, according to<\/a> reporting by Annahar at the end of March.<\/p>\n This is where the experience described by Shaaban Saleh begins. Saleh has worked in the appliance trade on Abdel Aziz Street in central Cairo for 27 years. He tells Zawia3 that business has been stagnant since March 2026 and that the problem is no longer just rising goods prices, but people\u2019s declining ability to buy them. He adds that, in his observation, fuel price increases have not been reflected in the prices of the appliances he sells, but demand has fallen as consumers postpone purchases or limit themselves to necessities.<\/p>\n A lower annual rate does not mean prices have stopped rising. The headline consumer price index increased by 0.6% in October compared with September, after a 1.5% rise in September. Food and beverage prices rose by 0.8% during the month, according to<\/a> the agency\u2019s figures published by the Cabinet. The annual rate compares prices in a given month with those in the same month a year earlier. It falls whenever the monthly increase is smaller than its counterpart a year before, even if prices continue to rise.<\/p>\n October\u2019s rate remains above the range set by the Central Bank of Egypt. The bank targets average inflation of 7%, plus or minus two percentage points, during the fourth quarter of 2026, giving an upper limit of 9%. In May, the bank projected<\/a> that inflation would exceed this target and average between 16% and 17% over 2026, compared with an earlier forecast of 11% in its report on the last quarter of 2025. It attributed the revision to the US-Iran conflict and the energy price shock.<\/p>\n