The rate of old residential building collapses in Alexandria has accelerated in recent times. The most recent of these tragic incidents occurred on April 3, when an old building on Haret Al-Nakhla in the Al-Gomrok district collapsed, killing five people, including a mother and her three children, and injuring her husband. On the same day, the collapse of a balcony in another old building—previously issued a restoration order in 2021—in Al-Gazeera Al-Khadraa, Montazah 1, led to the death of a woman in her forties who was standing on her own balcony.
Observers have noted an increase in total or partial building collapses from 2023 to 2025. Some see this as a reflection of the deterioration of building conditions and a rise in local government negligence. However, experts are also pointing to the growing impact of environmental and climate changes, particularly those affecting coastal areas in Mediterranean countries—chiefly sea level rise and marine erosion.
A scientific study titled “The Alarming Coastal Vulnerability of Deltaic and Sandy Shores in North Africa”, published on Nature in 2021, confirmed that North African coastlines—spanning 4,633 kilometers from the Gulf of Tunisia to the Nile Delta—are retreating due to persistent sea level rise linked to global warming. The unnatural coastal dynamics of deltaic and sandy shores are severely influenced by both climatic and anthropogenic drivers, heightening their vulnerability to coastal hazards.
These Mediterranean sedimentary coasts are primarily composed of terrestrial and marine bio-materials. Historically, terrestrial sediments were carried by delta rivers into the sea for millennia. But in recent decades, dam construction has drastically reduced sediment flow into the coasts—such as with Egypt’s Nile—leading to severe shoreline retreat and salinization of coastal groundwater layers. The study warns that the statistical map of the Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index shows that 47% of North Africa’s arid coasts are highly to very highly vulnerable. Population-dense delta coasts in Tunisia and Egypt are 70% more at risk than any other coast in the Eastern Mediterranean. Between 1% and 3% of the arid coasts stretching across Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt could face extreme submersion by 2100 due to an expected sea level rise of 1.11 meters.
Egypt’s coasts have already eroded by an average of 0.1 meters annually between 1984 and 2016, according to a World Bank study published in March 2022. It notes that the geological composition of sandy beaches and deltaic coasts along the Mediterranean makes them especially vulnerable to rising sea levels. Some parts of Egypt’s coastline are particularly prone to erosion, and the study warns of serious implications for tourism, industrial infrastructure, and residential communities, potentially resulting in enormous economic losses in the coming years.
The report warns that about 30% of Alexandria could be submerged if the sea level rises by just 0.3 meters, displacing approximately 545,000 people and leading to the loss of 70,500 jobs in Alexandria alone. Port Said and other delta cities face similar risks.
A previous scientific study titled “Impact of Human Interventions and Coastal Processes Along the Nile Delta Coast, Egypt, During the Past 25 Years,” published in 2016 in the Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Research issued by the National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, warned that the coastal region of the Nile Delta—which includes densely populated cities like Alexandria and Port Said and serves as a key industrial, agricultural, and economic hub for the country—has undergone extensive and unplanned developmental projects aimed at boosting local economies. However, these interventions have negatively impacted land use and land cover characteristics.
The study revealed, through satellite image processing to classify land use categories between 1990 and 2014, that major changes occurred along the coastline, resulting in erosion zones with rates reaching up to 24–36 meters per year, and accumulation zones with a total gain of 3.14 km², alongside an overall coastal retreat of 2.7 km².
The study further warned that expected climate changes and rising sea levels would exacerbate the erosion rate and the general condition of the coastal region. Based on scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—which project a sea level rise of 59 cm by the end of the century—combined with projected land subsidence of 2.5 mm per year, one-fifth of the Nile Delta would be at serious risk of submersion.
Neighborhoods Most Affected by Building Collapses
A review of official newspaper reports between January 2023 and April 2025 conducted by Zawia3 documented 43 incidents of residential building collapses in Alexandria Governorate. These incidents included 20 cases of partial collapse (46.5%), 18 cases of full collapse (41.9%), and 5 cases involving falling balconies (11.6%). The total number of fatalities resulting from these incidents reached 32, while 37 individuals were reported injured.
Tracking the incidents over time reveals that the most frequent periods for building collapses were during the months of January and February, as well as July and August of 2023 and 2024. January 2023 recorded the highest number of incidents, with five reported cases—marking it as the peak month compared to all others. The summer months also saw a notable increase in collapses, which may suggest the influence of weather conditions or the presence of large numbers of vacationers during these periods.
The geographical analysis of the areas most affected by building collapses in Alexandria Governorate—based on the sample of news reports from January 2023 to April 2025—shows that El Gomrok district recorded the highest number of incidents, including full and partial collapses as well as balcony collapses on multiple occasions. A total of 15 incidents occurred in El Gomrok, involving deteriorated and old buildings, some of which were unlicensed or had existing renovation orders.
Karmouz district ranked second, with five incidents including full collapses and balcony failures in aging buildings, some of which had demolition orders. Wardian came third with four incidents involving full collapses and balcony failures in old buildings. In fourth place was Central Alexandria (Wust Al-Madina), with four incidents of both full and partial collapses, and balconies falling from old buildings that had previously received renovation orders.
East Alexandria ranked fifth, with three reported cases of full and partial collapses in aging buildings. Both Sidi Bishr and Bakous came in sixth, each recording two full collapses of old buildings, one of which had a partial demolition order. Additional isolated incidents occurred in the districts of Ibrahimia, El-Seyouf, Bahary, Asafra, and Montazah II—all primarily involving old buildings.
The collapse patterns across Alexandria reveal a notable recurrence of partial and full collapses in El Gomrok due to unlicensed or poorly maintained old structures, many of which had prior demolition or restoration orders. In Karmouz and Wardian, the collapses were more severe, often involving entire buildings, reflecting systemic neglect and the failure to enforce safety orders. Partial collapses were particularly frequent in El Gomrok, Ibrahimia, and Sidi Bishr. Full collapses were the most deadly, especially in Sidi Bishr, Wardian, and Karmouz, where they led to fatalities and injuries.
In most of the incidents, the buildings were old, abandoned, or unlicensed. Many of the at-risk properties had previously received demolition or renovation orders that were never executed, reflecting a clear failure in oversight. The frequent collapse of balconies due to structural deterioration points to serious deficiencies in maintenance and restoration practices, as well as the absence of regular building inspections.
According to the 2017 Building Census issued by Egypt’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), the number of buildings at risk of collapse across the country stands at 97,535. Statistics further indicate that there are around 7 million illegal buildings in Egypt, with 2.184 million violations recorded in recent years. The Egyptian Center for Housing Rights estimates that there are approximately 1.4 million buildings at risk of collapse nationwide.
7,000 Buildings at Risk of Collapse
According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), sea levels are rising rapidly—from 1.4 mm annually throughout most of the 20th century to 3.6 mm per year between 2006 and 2015. Since 1880, the world’s oceans have risen by approximately 20–23 centimeters, and scientists predict an additional rise of 0.3 meters by 2030.
This poses a major threat to dozens of large coastal cities across Africa, potentially resulting in land shrinkage, coastal flooding, and increased likelihood of severe storms. These effects could impact around 117 million people on the continent, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Scientists attribute this sea level rise to global warming caused by human activities, leading to thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of ice sheets.
A recent scientific study published in Earth’s Future, a peer-reviewed journal specializing in climate research, in February, was led by Egyptian architect Sarah Fouad. Conducted as part of a unique international collaboration between universities in Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Tunisia, and Egypt, the study revealed that Alexandria has experienced over 280 building collapses along its coasts in the past two decades. It also found that the rate of coastal building collapses in Alexandria has increased tenfold over the last 20 years. The study warns of a growing threat to the southern Mediterranean coastline, especially Alexandria, where nearly 7,000 buildings are now at risk of collapse due to sea level rise and climate change. The study confirmed a correlation between shoreline retreat, land subsidence, and building collapses.
The study, funded by the University of California, NASA, and Germany’s Humboldt Foundation, relied on photographic satellite imagery from 1974 to 2021 to analyze climatic and coastal changes. It found that building collapses in Alexandria are directly linked to coastal erosion caused by sediment imbalance—primarily due to urban expansion—alongside rising sea levels. These factors have contributed to the intrusion of seawater into coastal groundwater layers, raising water levels and eroding building foundations, ultimately accelerating structural collapse.
Escalating Coastal Collapse: Sea-Level Rise, Urban Mismanagement, and the Crisis in Alexandria
Egyptian-American space and climate scientist Dr. Essam Heggy, a co-author of the study, explained that 117 building collapses were recorded between 2013 and 2015, compared to just one between 2001 and 2004. These collapses were concentrated primarily in areas near the coastline, such as western Alexandria, Al-Gomrok, and the city center, indicating a direct impact of environmental and climatic factors on building stability. He noted that Alexandria was chosen as the primary model for the study due to its unique geographic status as a historic coastal city, making it highly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise. According to Heggy, Alexandria exemplifies the risks faced by other coastal cities, and the study’s findings offer insight into potential global preventative strategies.
Dr. Heggy attributed the root cause of this phenomenon to shifting coastal dynamics, where beach erosion has led to seawater infiltrating coastal aquifers, raising groundwater levels and destabilizing the soil. This, in turn, has weakened building foundations and corroded structural materials such as concrete, steel, and brick, making buildings more susceptible to collapse. The increasing frequency of tropical storms and associated high waves has accelerated this process, further weakening coastal infrastructure. Additionally, persistent land subsidence—particularly in areas where large-scale land reclamation has occurred—has caused uneven foundation settlements, heightening the risk of cracks and structural failure. He emphasized that this issue is not limited to Alexandria, as similar patterns have been observed in coastal cities like Miami, parts of Mexico, and Brazil, where land subsidence has posed serious threats to infrastructure.
Dr. Heggy told Zawia3:
“As sea levels rise, saltwater seeps into underground aquifers, raising groundwater levels and reaching building foundations. This leads to structural erosion and collapse, weakens soil hardness, and causes buildings to crack, lean, or collapse—as witnessed along Alexandria’s Corniche in 2023. When comparing the current annual rate of collapses in the city—about 40 per year—to the total number of buildings, roughly half a million, this is a significant figure. Dozens of lives have been lost, and 7,000 buildings remain at risk. Each collapsed building endangers its neighbors. This is more than just a statistic. We shouldn’t wait until more people die.”
He continued:
“In 2021, we studied the effects of poor urban planning along the coastline on erosion. Cement walls preventing sediment from reaching the beaches are accelerating coastal erosion, which is already under pressure from environmental and hydraulic changes. These factors contribute to the recurring collapses. Poor planning alone accounts for 50% of the causes. Our research, which spanned three years and was published in a leading scientific journal, focused not on Alexandria ‘sinking’—as some media outlets reported—but on coastal erosion and soil transformation leading to building foundation decay. Our aim is to study the problem comprehensively and raise awareness.”
Dr. Heggy pointed out that Alexandria’s soil has weak geotechnical properties, and saltwater infiltration worsens this fragility, exposing construction flaws and triggering collapses. The study suggested possible mitigation strategies, such as replenishing the coastal belt with artificial sand, creating a buffer zone, and installing wave breakers to protect the city from seawater. However, he emphasized that no solution would succeed without addressing illegal construction practices that cost lives and fostering public acceptance of altering the coastal belt. He called on the government to act swiftly by extending the beaches dozens of meters into the sea to restore their pre-erosion state.
A 2022 study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies further emphasized that beyond the threats of sea-level rise and severe storms, coastal cities face the hidden danger of rising groundwater levels, which could turn urban areas into wetlands. This would trigger infrastructure and public health crises—from road and building foundation erosion to sewer system backflows, leaking drainage systems, waterlogged breeding grounds for pathogens, and contamination of the coastal aquifers that supply drinking water and irrigation.
Melting Ice and Global Warming: How Climate Change and Construction Violations Threaten Alexandria’s Stability
Dr. Magdy Allam, advisor to the Global Climate Program and Secretary-General of the Union of Arab Environmental Experts, explains that ice melt primarily occurs at the Earth’s polar regions—the Arctic and Antarctic—home to the planet’s largest freshwater reserves. Ice also forms in other regions during periods of extreme cold. As global warming intensifies, the resulting heat melts this ice, raising water levels in the world’s storage basins. He emphasizes that the problem of rising sea levels in the Mediterranean is not exclusive to Alexandria but affects 40 cities along its shores, exacerbated by oceanic currents and the Nile Delta’s two branches—Damietta and Rosetta—which contribute to shoreline flooding. To mitigate this, Egypt has constructed coastal groins and wave-breaker walls to combat marine erosion caused by violent wave activity.
Speaking to Zawia3, Allam stated:
“Egypt has spent $750 million to protect the Mediterranean coastline between Damietta and Rosetta, preventing seawater from encroaching and flooding the Delta. Residents have built concrete structures that now function as barriers against rising sea levels and aggressive water currents. These measures have successfully protected large areas of eroding sand dunes in Baltim, Port Said, and the region between Damietta and Rosetta, where rice crops were once frequently submerged by seawater.”
Architect and expert in smart and bioclimatic architecture, Engy El-Husseiny, attributes the structural threats to many buildings in Alexandria to unlicensed and haphazard construction, which places immense pressure on the city’s infrastructure. She explains that the concentration of densely packed buildings along the coastline has compromised safety standards, reducing the space available along the shore. The spread of unauthorized developments—such as cafes, restaurants, and hotels—along the coastal line adds further stress to Alexandria’s shoreline and foundational structures. She notes that this encroachment disrupts the marine ecosystem and threatens aquatic life, as pollution increases from the release of toxic gases, waste, and untreated sewage. These factors collectively weaken soil stability and undermine the foundations of buildings—particularly those constructed using substandard materials or through fraud in steel and cement specifications.
El-Husseiny told Zawia3:
“In my previous work at a research center, we studied municipal corruption and planning violations. For example, how does a building originally approved for eight floors end up being constructed with 17 or even 20 floors? This places unbearable pressure on the soil, which was never designed to handle such loads. It also overwhelms the water supply systems, sanitation infrastructure, and municipal drainage networks.”
She adds that studies warning of accelerated coastal erosion in Alexandria and increased marine encroachment due to rising sea levels and saltwater infiltration into building foundations—as a result of climate change—pose yet another threat to urban infrastructure. This danger, she asserts, can be mitigated by erecting barriers and embankments made of sustainable, eco-friendly materials that reduce flood risk. Additionally, adopting smart systems to harvest and recycle rainwater and providing effective drainage solutions to eliminate water pooling caused by heavy rainfall and storm surges is critical. These surges often overwhelm existing drainage capacity and jeopardize the structural integrity of buildings—particularly illegal constructions that lack compliance with engineering standards.
Chaos and Absence of Structural Studies: Experts Warn Alexandria’s Buildings Are Unfit for Coastal Climate
Architect and environmental design specialist Mohamed Eissa told Zawia3 that climate change significantly impacts buildings, especially in coastal environments, due to high levels of salinity and humidity. He stressed the need to protect buildings from these factors to prevent moisture and salts from seeping into concrete structures and causing steel reinforcement to rust—a process that ultimately leads to structural aging and what is colloquially referred to as “concrete cancer.” Eissa warned that buildings could collapse from nearby excavation or new construction once this degradation sets in.
He added that Egypt has an established structural code for the design and reinforcement of residential buildings, including guidelines for a building’s expected lifespan. After this period, the building must undergo maintenance or structural renewal, or it may be slated for demolition depending on its condition.
Eissa attributed Alexandria’s recent wave of building collapses to unregulated construction and the absence of architectural safety standards. He noted that buildings constructed in the 1980s, 1990s, and especially during the period following the 2011 revolution are more susceptible to damage due to haphazard construction practices. He emphasized that proper procedures must precede construction, including professional soil analysis to identify its type and condition—whether groundwater is salty or fresh—and determine if constant water drainage is necessary, as was the case with the San Stefano Hotel. These factors influence what building materials should be used and the appropriate depth and design of the foundation, including the potential use of deep foundation piles (known as “khawazeeq”) that must be tested and installed according to strict technical guidelines.
Dr. Enas Ahmed, Social Media Coordinator at the International Union of Geological Sciences, also spoke to Zawia3, stressing that a full Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must be conducted before any construction begins in coastal areas. This assessment would determine the soil’s load-bearing capacity, help establish the maximum number of floors a building can safely support, estimate its structural lifespan, and account for environmental factors that may require future repairs.
Ahmed noted that buildings located near the sea are particularly vulnerable to marine-induced erosion and thus require frequent maintenance. She pointed out that saline water presents a serious risk to structural integrity, and the presence of shallow groundwater beneath the soil surface requires specific construction criteria, including anchoring on suitable rock layers, depending on the results of the EIA and the proximity of water to the surface.
She concluded by contrasting modern buildings with older ones constructed in the 1930s and 1940s. While older buildings relied on thick stone blocks and columns, which made them more durable, newer constructions using red bricks and load-bearing wall systems are generally weaker and less resistant to environmental stressors.
Infrastructure at Risk: Environmental Lawyer Warns of Disregard for Climate Threats in Alexandria
Ahmed El-Saeidi, an environmental lawyer and Chairman of the Board of Trustees at the Egyptian Foundation for Environmental Rights, told Zawia3 that a looming disaster is unfolding in Alexandria due to the government’s persistent disregard for scientific reports warning of environmental catastrophes. These warnings highlight the dangers facing the city and other Mediterranean coastal towns due to rising sea levels driven by global warming—a threat he says jeopardizes Egypt’s infrastructure and will have severe economic consequences.
El-Saeidi criticized the continued issuance of construction permits for new buildings and government facilities, as well as licenses for seafront restaurants and cafes, all while failing to consider the need for adaptation to environmental changes. This negligence is occurring alongside the deterioration of many of Alexandria’s older buildings, further compounding the risks.
He emphasized that there are known erosion points along Egypt’s northern coast, particularly around Abu Qir and the North Coast region. Although Egypt has received climate funding to address such issues, he pointed out that these resources have not been effectively used. He referenced Egypt’s 2011 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, which called for climate resilience to be integrated into environmental impact assessments for all coastal development projects. However, this mandate has largely been ignored.
El-Saeidi cited Greece as a model of responsible governance, noting that the country halted construction permits along its coastal zones and evacuated seafront properties to protect residents from the risk of infrastructure collapse caused by rising sea levels. He warned that unless similar precautions are adopted in Egypt, the country may face irreversible damage to both its coastal communities and economic stability.
Parliamentary Interventions and Government Action
In April 2023, Member of Parliament Ayman Mohseb submitted an official inquiry to the Prime Minister and the Minister of Local Development regarding the collapse of a residential building in the Wardian district of western Alexandria, which resulted in the deaths of six citizens and injuries to five others. He condemned the government’s failure to address the crisis of buildings at risk of collapse, warning that the “series of collapsing properties” would not end without urgent action.
The MP revealed that estimates suggest there are over 6,000 dangerous and dilapidated buildings in Alexandria alone, including 160 leaning structures. In addition, 133,000 demolition orders have been issued for illegal buildings. He added that over 5,000 demolition orders have been issued in recent years.
In February 2023, MP Mahmoud Essam, also representing Alexandria, submitted a parliamentary inquiry to the Prime Minister and the Ministers of Local Development and Environment concerning land subsidence along the Corniche in Sidi Bishr. He called for decisive measures to protect Egypt’s beaches from coastal erosion.
Essam explained that at the time, Alexandria had experienced another wave of extreme weather, which led to a crack forming in the Corniche’s surface in Sidi Bishr, causing part of the walkway to collapse. Specifically, the subsidence affected Edward Kharrat Beach in Sidi Bishr, where the plaza caved in, the retaining wall tilted, and a 20-meter-long longitudinal crack appeared on the pavement.
In September 2024, MP Irene Saeed urged a broader review of the issue of structurally unsound buildings, calling for strong measures to address the dangers posed by collapsing properties. She highlighted that five buildings had collapsed in September alone, criticizing the lack of any proactive strategies, with government response limited to recovering bodies and rescuing the injured.
The Ministry of Water Resources had previously announced the implementation of a project to transfer sand from the Nile Delta’s coastal areas to reinforce eroded beaches. The ministry also reported the construction of coastal protection works stretching 210 kilometers, including an 835-meter-long sea wall in Alexandria, built using concrete blocks and stones.
Additionally, the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation revealed a project aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change impacts on Egypt’s northern coasts and the Nile Delta. This initiative, carried out in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), seeks to address sea-level rise and severe weather events affecting the North Coast and the Nile Delta.
Proposed Solutions
The scientific study published in February in the journal Earth’s Future—as part of a collaborative project involving researchers from Egypt, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and Tunisia—proposes integrating “soft defense” techniques that rely on green infrastructure and environmentally friendly coastal design to strengthen protection against climate change. These proposed solutions include creating living shorelines and natural wave breakers to reduce coastal erosion, designing rain gardens and constructed wetlands to manage flooding and minimize seawater intrusion, developing green street networks planted with salt-tolerant vegetation to absorb water and mitigate the effects of high tides, and linking coastal neighborhoods with an integrated water network to boost community resilience to climate impacts.
In the short term, the study recommends implementing natural barriers in western Alexandria to address the rapid retreat of the shoreline and prevent further building collapses. For the long term, it suggests adapting existing infrastructure in the districts of El Gomrok, East Alexandria, and the city center to accommodate rising sea levels. The study also advocates for the adoption of a “managed retreat” strategy in the Al-Amriya area, combining nature-based solutions to prepare for future environmental changes. Furthermore, it calls for increased cooperation among Mediterranean countries, urging coordinated efforts and knowledge-sharing to develop collective strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation.
Despite the government’s efforts to address coastal erosion and shoreline degradation, buildings and infrastructure in Alexandria remain at serious risk due to ongoing environmental and climatic shifts. These shifts have led to rising sea levels and groundwater tables on one hand, and the structural deterioration of many old or illegally built residential properties on the other. Coupled with local authority negligence and inaction, this situation endangers the lives of many residents—unless authorities act swiftly to implement urgent measures and adopt the recommendations of specialists and recent scientific research.
