Recent satellite images, observed via satellite technology, mid-June last year, revealed Ethiopia’s intention to begin the fifth filling of the Renaissance Dam this July, which Ethiopian authorities already announced at the beginning of this month in a grand celebration.
Experts predict that the storage will be at a level of 625 cubic meters, expected to reach 640 cubic meters with a total storage of 64 billion cubic meters. This will, for the first time, directly impact the water level in Lake Nasser, leading Egypt into a “critical stage” due to the low water availability, as estimated by experts, causing catastrophic economic and social effects on the country suffering from a severe economic and electricity crisis.
A few days ago, Egypt conducted extensive governmental changes, including 21 new ministers and the merging of some ministries, in addition to a movement of governors and structural changes within the executive apparatus. Amid the controversy stirred by the new government and speculations about its ability to address pending issues or those its predecessor failed in, the issue of the Renaissance Dam remains of significant interest to the Egyptian public. The issue is shrouded in severe media blackout and a lack of official governmental statements, amid questions raised by citizens urging the government for transparency, especially since Article 44 of the Egyptian Constitution states: “The state commits to protecting the Nile River, its water resources, its shores, seas, waterways, and lakes, and preserving them, removing any encroachments on them, and the law regulates the means of benefiting from them.”
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The fifth filling, expected to be the largest and most dangerous since the dam’s construction began in 2011, costing around $4.2 billion, is anticipated to occur by the end of this July. This coincides with an intense state of war within Sudan and an unprecedented deterioration of the internal situation due to ongoing battles between the regular army and the Rapid Support Forces. Meanwhile, Egypt is facing an economic crisis and social tensions amid soaring inflation rates, casting a heavy shadow over citizens’ livelihoods, thus complicating and exacerbating the crisis.
Estimates indicate that Addis Ababa plans to hold an additional 23 billion cubic meters of Nile water, adding to the 41 billion cubic meters retained in the previous four stages. The filling process is conducted in isolation from Egypt and Sudan (the downstream countries). Egypt appears to be the most affected as it is the most water-poor country, according to United Nations estimates. Additionally, the Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Hani Sewilam, previously announced that his country’s water resources amount to about 59.60 billion cubic meters annually, compared to water needs estimated at about 114 billion cubic meters annually.
UN estimates indicate that water could run out in Egypt by 2025, with some areas in Sudan, which has been at war for over a year (since April 2023), at risk of drought due to climate change.
Reports have mentioned that Addis Ababa has rejected all proposals made by Egypt to understand its intentions regarding the amount of water it plans to store during the fifth filling of the Renaissance Dam, including refusing to receive Egyptian observers to monitor the process.
Catastrophic Damages
Egypt relies on the Nile River for 97% of its water and suffers a deficit of 54 billion cubic meters annually, as its water needs reach about 114 billion cubic meters annually, while available water resources amount to only 60 billion cubic meters annually. The High Dam’s power plant is the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa, with a total capacity of 2100 megawatts, according to the official website of the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy. However, scientific research indicates that rising temperatures due to climate change will lead to increased evaporation rates of the Nile water, resulting in a decrease in river flows by more than 0.5%. The current evaporation rates in the Aswan Reservoir are about 10%. Simultaneously, rising temperatures coupled with the government’s implementation of a load shedding plan will increase citizens’ need for clean water, necessitating an increase in Egypt’s water quota.
In this context, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that temperatures in some areas of Egypt will rise between 1.8 and 3.6 degrees Celsius over the next century. This will require more water to grow crops, increase evaporation from the Nile and its channels, and lead to higher water demand amid lower supply, potentially causing water insecurity and a significant economic crisis.
Since 2011, when the Ethiopian dam project began, Egypt has considered it a threat to its national water security. In recent years, official sources have emphasized the economic costs of the dam and its unilateral filling and operation. According to these sources, a reduction of just one billion cubic meters of Nile water flowing into Egypt could result in 290,000 people losing their jobs, degradation of 130,000 hectares of farmland, a $150 million increase in food imports, and a $430 million loss in agricultural production, according to the United Nations Security Council.
Climate change represents a significant challenge to Egypt’s water resources. The third national report submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change pointed out that the most vulnerable sectors in Egypt to the negative impacts of this phenomenon are freshwater resources and agriculture, given the noticeable rise in temperatures or reduced rainfall. Egypt has already reduced the area used for rice production by more than half, from 1.76 million feddans to 750,000 feddans, in an attempt to save three billion cubic meters of water.
It is expected that the agricultural land area in Upper Egypt will shrink by 29.47% and in the Delta, which is the main source of food for Egypt, by 23.03%. A decline in the production of rice, fruits, and vegetables might lead to food insecurity and higher food prices, causing economic and social instability, especially since the agricultural sector employs about 23% of the country’s workforce.
Egypt faces an average annual water deficit of 20 billion cubic meters, according to former Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Aty. Egypt’s water needs are about 80 billion cubic meters, while the total available freshwater is around 60 billion cubic meters. This gap is compensated for by reusing agricultural drainage water, shallow groundwater in the valley and delta, and importing food products equivalent to 34 billion cubic meters of water annually. The per capita share of freshwater has steadily decreased over the years, falling below the global water poverty line of 1,000 cubic meters annually.
Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University Abbas Sharaqy told Zawia3 that the general damages of storage are multiple, and there is a difference between having damages that the state works to prevent from reaching the citizen and having no damages at all.
According to Sharaqy, the state is working on rationalizing water consumption, spending tens of billions of pounds on projects to develop irrigation and agriculture, reusing treated water, lining canals, expanding the construction of agricultural greenhouses, and other measures to maintain a good water reserve in the High Dam, ensuring water security for citizens.
Economist Karim Al-Omda describes the economic damages of the fifth filling as serious. Al-Omda says the project can be considered a tool to choke Egypt, considering the fifth filling the most dangerous as it will directly impact Egypt’s water quota (55 billion meters).
The High Dam generates about 10-12% of the country’s electricity, according to Al-Omda, predicting that a drop in Lake Nasser’s water level will exacerbate the electricity crisis, even though reliance on High Dam electricity is relatively low, but it is crucial to meet citizens’ needs amid the current crisis.
The second serious impact, according to Al-Omda, involves increasing Egypt’s water poverty due to reduced water shares, coinciding with a significant population increase. Food security will also be affected by reducing agricultural land areas and the disappearance of certain crops that require large amounts of water.
Al-Omda explains that Egypt has a strategic plan to increase agricultural land by reclaiming desert areas to avoid food shortage problems, which may not be feasible with the drop in water levels. Existing agricultural lands will shrink, leading to higher unemployment rates and increased food import costs.
A study conducted by researchers at Zagazig University (in Sharqia Governorate, Egypt’s Delta) and the Technical University of Košice in Slovakia found that the Renaissance Dam will reduce groundwater and surface water levels in Egypt, harming agricultural production. Most crops grown in the country require large amounts of water. However, if farmers switch to crops that use less water, the increased soil salinity due to lower groundwater levels and inadequate plant irrigation would harm soil productivity.
Water shortages will also affect, according to Al-Omda, Egypt’s development plans. Without enough water for public services, the state won’t achieve these plans, especially with the high costs of seawater desalination and sewage treatment plants, adding billions of pounds in additional burdens on the general budget. Al-Omda mentions that the cost of a seawater desalination plant could reach about 50 billion pounds.
Why is the Fifth Storage the Most Dangerous?
Sharaqy states that the damages of the fifth storage in Ethiopia are divided into water, economic, political, social, and environmental damages. The most important water and economic damages are the loss of the stored amount, ranging from several billion to 23 billion cubic meters. This is the first direct loss, in addition to limiting rice cultivation to about 1.1 million feddans, and the high costs in tens of billions of pounds for establishing water treatment plants to reuse agricultural drainage water, lining canals, developing field irrigation, expanding agricultural greenhouses, among other projects.
For Sudan, the fifth filling might cause confusion in operating dams and, in the future, reduced agricultural productivity due to silt retention in the Renaissance Dam, rising groundwater levels, and increased agricultural production costs due to the need for more fertilizers, as well as about a million Sudanese ceasing floodplain farming on the banks of the Nile.
Additionally, the political damages, according to Sharaqy, include Ethiopia continuing to embarrass Egyptian and Sudanese officials in front of their citizens by imposing a fait accompli through unilateral decisions and violating the agreements signed between Cairo and Addis Ababa and international norms, the 2015 Declaration of Principles on the Renaissance Dam, the recommendations of the African Union mini-summits, and the presidential statement of the UN Security Council in September 2021.
He believes that Addis Ababa may continue this approach when constructing other dams, and this method may encourage other upstream countries to follow the same approach when building dams on the Nile River’s tributaries, while tensions between Cairo and Khartoum may continue due to the ongoing Renaissance Dam crisis.
Does the Government Have Solutions? The Renaissance Dam issue stands as one of the most important challenges for the new government. Despite the severe media blackout and governmental silence on the matter, an official source confirmed to Zawia3 that official bodies are intensifying efforts to pressure Arab and international entities to mediate the crisis, without disclosing further details.
In his first statement after being reappointed as Minister of Irrigation, Hani Sewilam stated that Cairo is committed to implementing international law regarding the Renaissance Dam issue, clarifying, “Our demands are clear regarding the Ethiopian dam; we demand the application of international law principles to secure our water share.”
Commenting, former MP and member of the Presidential Council of the Conservative Party, Talaat Khalil, told Zawia3 that the government currently has no choice but to try to pressure for an agreement with the Ethiopian side on a mechanism for operating the dam. He described Addis Ababa as having full control over this issue due to the failure of Egyptian government policies in handling the file, saying, “The sword has preceded the scabbard; we no longer have many solutions for this dangerous issue.”
Khalil believes that the Egyptian side erred in signing the 2015 Declaration of Principles, as it granted legitimacy to the dam’s construction, which was previously absent. This agreement allowed Ethiopia to obtain funding from international entities that had previously refused due to the disagreement over the dam between upstream and downstream countries.
He explains that Ethiopia now controls the amount of water that reaches Egypt, so there is no choice but to reach an agreement with the Ethiopian government on the dam’s operation mechanism. If Egypt does not coordinate with Ethiopia regarding the amount of water that should reach it, the water shortage will increase unprecedentedly, possibly preventing any water from reaching Egypt, resulting in a real disaster, according to the Conservative Party’s Presidential Council member.
He adds, “Ethiopian unilateral moves rely on the Declaration of Principles, which did not specify the filling mechanism or the number of years for filling the dam. Thus, the Egyptian government has no choice but to try to reach an agreement on the water quota reaching Egypt during flood and drought years. The Ethiopian side has shown obstinacy since signing the agreement, refusing to agree on the filling mechanism and even rejecting sharing technical studies related to the dam with the Egyptian side. The announced fifth filling will store 23 billion cubic meters.”
According to Khalil, this means the filling is from Egypt’s share, denouncing the silence and complacency of governmental entities on the current situation, representing a severe food and water crisis. He warns, “If Ethiopia refuses, Addis Ababa will face penalties for violating international dam agreements, considering the Blue Nile a local river rather than an international one, turning the dispute into an international one, risking a catastrophe of death by thirst until resolved.”
Khalil points out that Egypt, due to the water shortage, had to exploit stored water behind the High Dam in Lake Nasser during the past two years. He adds, “The water level in Lake Nasser has now become a ‘military secret,’ not announced unlike usual. The Ministry of Irrigation was supposed to regularly announce the water level in the lake.”
Failed Negotiations
Negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia have failed over four rounds to reach any agreement between the parties. In December last year, Cairo announced the failure of the last round of negotiations, which lasted four months, accusing Addis Ababa of exploiting the negotiation cover to entrench the status quo on the ground, stating that it “will closely monitor the filling and operation process of the dam.”
In March 2015, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi signed the Khartoum Declaration of Principles, obligating Ethiopia to consider the water needs of the downstream Nile countries, Egypt and Sudan, and to refrain from causing significant harm to them while using the Blue Nile—the main tributary of the Nile River and the primary source of fresh water for Egypt. In June 2021, Egypt referred the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue to the UN Security Council, hoping the international body could pressure Ethiopia to halt its unilateral moves on the dam’s construction and filling.
Egypt asserts that Ethiopia’s decision to build the dam entirely disregarded the water needs of Egypt and Sudan (110 million and 46 million inhabitants, respectively). The conflict over the Nile waters peaked in 2011 when Ethiopia’s former government began constructing the dam to provide more electricity for its population of about 105 million. Since then, Cairo has sought an agreement with Ethiopia and Sudan on the project’s most impactful issue: the time allocated for filling the dam’s massive reservoir.
Egypt wanted it to be slow enough to avoid severe water shortages, while Ethiopia wanted to expedite access to a new energy source that could revolutionize its power grid. Specifically, Ethiopia aimed to fill the reservoir within three years, which has already occurred, while Cairo demanded it be done over seven years.
The two sides cannot agree on the outcome or the mediation method. Egypt prefers to internationalize the issue, while Ethiopia favors the African Union’s mediation. Egypt and Sudan seek a legally binding agreement on how Ethiopia should fill the dam during drought periods, which Ethiopia deems unacceptable.
Currently, there is no clear end in sight or even a defined path to resolution. In the coming years, with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam fully operational and the Nile waters increasingly affected by climate change, the dispute could become more dangerous for both countries and the wider region.
