The government aims to raise its employees’ minimum wage to EGP 15,000 by 2029/2030, but Zawia3’s analysis raises questions about purchasing power that would amount to no more than EGP 6,200 at today’s prices.
Ahmed Ragy, a journalist at an Egyptian news platform, follows Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly’s speech while covering the closing session of the Egypt Forum 2026. Madbouly announces a target of raising the minimum wage for employees in the state administrative apparatus to EGP 15,000 by 2029/2030, compared with EGP 8,000 today. Ragy notes the figure in a draft news story. As he edits the paragraphs, he starts calculating the expected percentage increase, then pauses to consider his own salary. He earns EGP 7,196 a month, and asks himself: how much would his salary become if it rose at the same pace? What would that increase be worth in four years? He does not, however, include the result of his analysis in his story.
Around three years ago, in July 2023, the government raised the minimum wage from EGP 2,700 to EGP 3,000, before raising it to EGP 3,500 by January 2024, then to EGP 6,000 in May 2024, and EGP 7,000 from March 2025, before it settled at EGP 8,000 from July 2026. According to Zawia3’s analysis, the minimum wage jumped by around 167% in nominal terms in less than three years. Yet at no point during these periods did it exceed USD 150 at the official exchange rate announced by the Central Bank of Egypt.
Economist Elhamy El-Merghany, deputy chairman of the Socialist Popular Alliance Party, describes the scenario analysing the purchasing power of the minimum wage targeted for 2030 as an important initiative and a scientific attempt to estimate the real value of the anticipated increases. He stresses the need to account for the effects of time and price changes. He adds that Zawia3’s analysis in this report opens the way for further research and scrutiny of the extent to which wage increases are reflected in living standards.
Wages jump 167%: what will remain of the promised increase?
Before the government announced its target of raising the minimum wage to EGP 15,000 by the end of 2029/2030, and between the two increases, Ragy wonders how much of the capacity to buy goods and services the minimum-wage increases have retained amid inflation and the pound’s depreciation over the past three years, while the government plans to repeat a similar scenario over the next three. According to Zawia3’s analysis, Madbouly’s announced plan means a nominal minimum-wage increase of 87.5% over the remaining period to 2029/2030. But what will that sum actually be worth when the time comes to implement it?
A rise in nominal pay does not mean an equivalent improvement in living standards. Annual urban inflation in Egypt reached 35.7% in February 2024 before declining to 13.9% in September 2026, according to Central Bank of Egypt data. This decline means prices are rising more slowly, rather than returning to previous levels, economist Dr Hassan El-Sady explains. That makes measuring the impact of increases on purchasing power more complicated than comparing salaries before and after a decision, he tells Zawia3.
The latest Central Bank of Egypt forecasts available in its monetary policy report for the second quarter of 2026 indicate that average annual inflation could reach 16.6% in 2026/2027 before falling to 8.1% in 2027/2028, with a return to single digits expected in the second half of 2027 under the baseline scenario. In its review of Egypt’s programme issued in July 2026, the International Monetary Fund warned that inflation could rise to 16.7% in the second half of 2026, driven by higher energy prices, exchange-rate depreciation and unfavourable base effects. It also noted that the return to the inflation target range had been delayed by about a year.
Economist Dr Abdel-Nabi Abdel-Mottaleb believes that setting a monthly minimum wage of EGP 15,000 could be appropriate if current price levels remain stable. He notes, however, that preserving purchasing power over the coming years is not guaranteed, given the possibility of energy price increases and continuing volatility in global markets, particularly food and oil prices. He tells Zawia3 that any estimate of purchasing power assumes other factors remain constant, an assumption that is difficult to sustain in the current circumstances, with energy prices moving upwards. Any potential increases in electricity, gas, petrol and diesel prices, he says, will feed into inflation and therefore the real value of wages.
Inflation rears its head, and prices do not go backwards
Fitch Solutions estimates indicate that the path of disinflation in Egypt will remain linked to exchange-rate stability and decisions to adjust fuel and service prices, a path that assumes improving geopolitical and monetary conditions. According to Zawia3’s analysis, exchange-rate movements from 2023 to the present reveal the pound’s depreciation against the dollar: the dollar rose from around EGP 31 at the end of 2023 to EGP 55.89 in October 2026, an increase of around 80.3%. This means the cost of obtaining dollars rose by about four-fifths from its level at the end of 2023, indicating the scale of the exchange rate’s pass-through to domestic prices over the past three years.
Abdel-Nabi Abdel-Mottaleb explains that maintaining stable purchasing power over the next three years depends on controlling inflation. Keeping it below 10%, he argues, is a condition for limiting the erosion of incomes, while taking account of the different scenarios that could affect prices and exchange rates. He tells Zawia3 that the course of prices in the coming period is linked to factors that are difficult to predict, including geopolitical developments. He notes that rising energy demand as urban development expands could increase pressure on the local currency and drive up prices and inflation. Proposing a minimum wage of EGP 15,000 without linking it to the expected price trajectory or addressing pensions, he says, may be an attempt to reassure people after successive waves of price increases, but cannot on its own guarantee a sustained improvement in living standards.
The dollar and fuel: a bill that threatens wages
Since 2023, increases have extended to gas used in vehicles and homes. The price of a cubic metre of vehicle gas rose from EGP 4.50 in March 2023 to EGP 13 in March 2026, an increase of 188.9%, according to Zawia3’s analysis of official prices. At the same time, the price of a 12.5-kilogram domestic cooking-gas cylinder jumped from EGP 75 to EGP 275, while the 25-kilogram cylinder rose from EGP 150 to EGP 550, an increase of 266.7% for each over the same period. These figures mean that cooking-gas cylinder prices rose to around 3.7 times their March 2023 levels, while vehicle gas became about 2.9 times as expensive.
Elhamy El-Merghany says the targeted wage increase of 87.5%, according to Zawia3’s analysis, is equivalent to a compound annual increase of around 23.3% if calculated over three years. The simple arithmetic increase, meanwhile, would be around 29.2% annually relative to the current EGP 8,000 salary, he states. He tells Zawia3 that if cumulative inflation over the coming period exceeds the targeted nominal increase, real income will be eroded, pointing to Egypt’s steep price increases and declining purchasing power in 2023 and 2024.
The increases over the past three years have also extended to all three grades of petrol since 2023. The price of a litre of 80-octane petrol rose from EGP 8.75 in March 2023 to EGP 20.75 in March 2026, an increase of EGP 12, or around 137.1%, according to Zawia3’s analysis of official prices. A litre of 92-octane petrol rose from EGP 10.25 to EGP 22.25, an increase of EGP 12, equivalent to 117.1%, while 95-octane petrol rose from EGP 11.50 to EGP 24 per litre, an increase of EGP 12.50, or around 108.7%, over the same period. The comparison shows that 80-octane petrol recorded the largest percentage increase among the three grades, while petrol prices overall more than doubled in three years.
As for household electricity consumption prices, the 2026 figures are enough to illustrate the situation. In April 2026, the ministry raised commercial tariffs and the higher residential tiers by an average of around 20%, while keeping residential tiers up to 2,000 kilowatts unchanged. It then announced in July 2026 that the remaining residential tiers would rise by an average of around 12%, saying the state covers around EGP 100 billion (USD 2.07 billion) annually in the difference between production costs and tariffs.
Increases also extended to diesel. Its price rose from EGP 8.25 per litre in May 2023 to EGP 20.50 in March 2026, an increase of EGP 12.25, equivalent to around 148.5%, according to Zawia3’s analysis of official prices. Diesel thus became around 2.5 times as expensive as it had been in May 2023. This raises the operating costs of transport and fuel-dependent activities, although the impact on production costs and goods prices varies according to the activity and the extent to which the increase is passed on to the final consumer.
The effects of the economic crisis reached food following increases in fuel prices and the exchange rate, with food prices surging in recent years. According to Egypt’s food consumer price index data published through the database of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the index rose from 253 points in 2022 to 415 in 2023, then 551.7 in 2024, before reaching 580.5 in 2025. According to Zawia3’s analysis, this represents a cumulative increase of around 129.4% over three years. The figures show that 2023 recorded the largest annual increase, around 63.8%, followed by 32.9% in 2024, before the pace slowed to 5.2% in 2025.
More importantly, International Monetary Fund documents concerning Egypt’s programme discuss a return to the automatic fuel-pricing mechanism so that prices reflect cost recovery, with periodic reviews tied to two factors: the dollar price of Brent crude and the pound’s exchange rate against the dollar. The mechanism described in the programme documents sets limits on price changes of up to 10% upwards or downwards.
Abdel-Nabi Abdel-Mottaleb observes that Egypt is a food-importing country exposed to global price movements, particularly for wheat and oils. If prices remain stable, he tells Zawia3, EGP 15,000 could represent what he describes as a reasonable minimum-wage level. He explains, however, that disruptions to food shipments or oil prices rising beyond USD 120 a barrel could substantially alter the calculations. When measuring purchasing power, Abdel-Mottaleb believes that using average increases in economic indicators, converting them into percentages and then applying them to the targeted values may be more appropriate than relying solely on long-term inflation forecasts. He notes that Zawia3’s numerical analysis is closer to reality because its tracking relies on averages of economic rates.
Food: increases exceeding 600% for some products
The recorded increases in staple food prices are supported by the trend in the food price index, which rose from 100 points in 2015 to 580.5 in 2025, a cumulative increase of 480.5%, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database. Prices of basic products rose by percentages in the vicinity of that increase. For example, between March 2015 and March 2026, the average price of tomatoes jumped from EGP 3.5 to EGP 26.7, an increase of around 663%, while the average price of a litre of loose fresh milk rose from EGP 7.3 to EGP 34.5, an increase of 372.6%. The average price of farmed chicken rose from EGP 26.2 to EGP 112.5, an increase of 329.4%, and dried fava beans for cooking rose from EGP 15.1 to EGP 56.6, an increase of 274.8%, according to Zawia3’s analysis of official prices from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).
The wave of food price increases was therefore not confined to a single commodity. It extended to products on which Egyptian consumers rely in their daily consumption, with rates of increase differing from one product to another. Nor is it contradictory for some prices to rise faster than the overall index: the index reflects the average change in a broader basket of goods, while individual product prices are affected by factors such as seasons, production and transport costs, and available supply.
El-Merghany warns of continuing price pressures in the coming period, with the dollar having risen in recent weeks from between EGP 48 and EGP 49 to around EGP 56, alongside limited exports, the impact on Suez Canal revenues, a growing import bill and weak agricultural and industrial production. He tells Zawia3 that dependence on imports of essential goods, including wheat, maize, fava beans, lentils, medicines and production inputs, leaves domestic prices exposed to exchange-rate movements and import costs.
Inflationary pressures do not stop at higher prices for basic goods or energy costs. They also extend to meat, one of the main components of Egyptian households’ food spending, according to Zawia3’s analysis of official prices published in CAPMAS data. A comparison between January 2023 and July 2026 shows increases ranging from 25% to 32% in common types of meat sold in markets. The average price of a kilogram of lamb rose from EGP 322 to EGP 425, an increase of around 32%, while veal rose from an average of EGP 299 to EGP 394, an increase of around 31%. Over the same period, imported meat rose from an average of EGP 216.5 to EGP 273 per kilogram, an increase of 26%, while beef rose from an average of EGP 323 to EGP 404, around 25%.
The prices indicate that buying meat continues to cost more than it did at the start of 2023, with rates of increase varying by type. These increases matter not only in nominal terms but also for their potential impact on households’ ability to maintain previous levels of consumption, particularly when accompanied by higher food and energy prices and other living costs. They also indicate the extent to which purchasing power has declined, since wages and incomes did not rise over the same period enough to match those price increases. This remains one measure of changes in consumption or affordability.
Abdel-Nabi Abdel-Mottaleb explains that inflation reflects the average change in the prices of a basket of goods and services. It can be affected by temporary decreases or increases in particular prices, which do not necessarily reflect the actual change in each household’s cost of living. He tells Zawia3 that calculating inflation’s cumulative impact on wages faces the additional difficulty of insufficient data. Moreover, interest rates in Egypt do not move directly and automatically with inflation, unlike in economies that follow rules linking the two indicators more closely.
Following the government’s lead
Following the government’s example, Zawia3 presents the following analysis:
Total subsidies, grants and social benefits in Egypt’s state budget rose from around EGP 454.8 billion in fiscal year 2022/2023 to EGP 832.3 billion in the 2026/2027 budget. This was a nominal increase of around EGP 377.5 billion, equivalent to 82.9% over four fiscal years. Zawia3 calculates these allocations in dollars at each year’s average exchange rate, revealing a different trajectory. Their value fell from around USD 17.78 billion in 2022/2023 to USD 15.81 billion in 2023/2024, then USD 12.99 billion in 2024/2025, before rising to USD 15.08 billion in 2025/2026 and reaching around USD 15.96 billion in the 2026/2027 budget.
This brief analysis by Zawia3 means that the nominal increase in allocations for subsidies, grants and social benefits did not translate into an increase in their dollar value. Although pound-denominated allocations rose by around 82.9% compared with 2022/2023, their estimated dollar value in 2026/2027 remains around USD 1.82 billion, or 10.2%, below its 2022/2023 level.
If the government is targeting an increase in the minimum wage for employees in the state administrative apparatus from today’s EGP 8,000 to EGP 15,000 by 2029/2030, measuring its impact goes beyond calculating the 87.5% difference between the two figures. It also requires considering what that money will buy when the decision is implemented, based on the successive increases in goods and services prices over the past three years.
El-Merghany notes that estimating wages’ purchasing power over the coming years requires further studies of price changes across different commodity groups and scenarios for their possible future movements, rather than simply comparing the nominal salary increase with current pay. He tells Zawia3 that the pressures extend beyond food and fuel to housing and essential services, pointing to a 15% increase in old-rent payments, as well as electricity, water, gas and cooking-gas cylinder prices.
EGP 15,000 in 2030: what is it worth at today’s prices?
Under a scenario developed by Zawia3, the experience of the past three years provides a basis for testing this promise. According to Egypt’s food consumer price index data attributed to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization database, the index rose from 253 points in 2022 to 580.5 in 2025, a cumulative increase of around 129.4%. This means the food prices measured by the index became around 2.3 times their 2022 levels, despite a slower annual rate of increase in 2025 than in the two previous years.
If the same pace continues over the remaining period to 2030, the compound rate of increase in the food index would be around 31.9% annually. Projecting that rate mathematically over around three and a half years, the approximate period until the end of 2029/2030, would leave food prices around 164% higher than their October 2026 levels, if the same pace continues.
In this scenario, an EGP 15,000 wage in 2030 would have food-related purchasing power equivalent to around EGP 5,700 at today’s prices, less than the current EGP 8,000 minimum wage. The targeted nominal increase of 87.5% would therefore be insufficient in this scenario to offset the assumed rise in food prices.
The significance of these increases extends beyond goods prices to the exchange rate, one of the factors affecting the cost of imports and production inputs. According to Zawia3’s analysis, the dollar rose from around EGP 31 at the end of 2023 to EGP 55.89 in October 2026, an increase of roughly 80.3%. If the compound annual rate of increase recorded over that period continues until the end of 2029/2030, the dollar could approach EGP 116. In this scenario, the targeted EGP 15,000 wage would equal around USD 129, compared with around USD 143 for the current EGP 8,000 minimum wage, at the exchange rate used in the calculation.
To test what raising the minimum wage to EGP 15,000 by 2030 could mean for a household budget, the pace of meat price increases over the past three years can be projected onto the coming period. According to Zawia3’s analysis, veal prices rose by around 31.8% over the past three years. If the same cumulative increases recur through 2030, a kilogram of veal could reach around EGP 519 and lamb around EGP 562, while beef could approach EGP 506 and imported meat EGP 345.
According to Zawia3’s analysis, the petrol-price scenario shows increases of 137.1% for a litre of 80-octane petrol, 117.1% for 92-octane and 108.7% for 95-octane. If the same compound annual pace continues until 2030, a litre of 80-octane petrol could approach EGP 57, 92-octane EGP 55 and 95-octane EGP 57. At these prices, an EGP 15,000 wage would buy around 264 litres of 80-octane petrol, compared with around 386 litres that an EGP 8,000 wage buys at today’s prices.
If diesel prices continue to rise in the coming years at the same compound annual rate recorded between March 2023 and March 2026, a litre could reach around EGP 69 by 2030, compared with EGP 20.50 today. Under this scenario, increasing the minimum wage from EGP 8,000 to EGP 15,000 would not preserve an employee’s ability to buy the same quantity of diesel. That quantity would fall from around 390 litres to roughly 217 litres, a decline approaching 44%. Diesel is not only consumed directly: it also forms part of the cost of transporting goods and running productive and service activities, which means its price increases feed into other prices.
Zawia3’s analysis shows that a continuation of the pace seen over the previous three years could push the price of a domestic cooking-gas cylinder to EGP 1,200 by 2030, compared with EGP 275 today, while natural gas used as vehicle fuel could approach EGP 45 per cubic metre, compared with EGP 13 now. In this scenario, raising the minimum wage from EGP 8,000 to EGP 15,000 would not preserve the same purchasing power for either item. The number of cooking-gas cylinders that the wage could buy would fall from around 29 to 12, while the quantity of vehicle gas would decline from around 615 to 335 cubic metres.
The cost of living does not stop at food and fuel prices. Electricity, too, is likely to test whether nominal wage increases can keep pace with essential service costs. A comparison of 2023 tariffs with prices published in 2026 shows that increases varied markedly between consumption tiers. If the annual rates calculated over that period continue until 2030, the cost per kilowatt could exceed EGP 3 in some tiers and approach EGP 6 in the highest-consumption tier.
To test the government’s target of raising the minimum wage to EGP 15,000 by fiscal year 2029/2030 against the current EGP 8,000 wage, Zawia3 developed a mathematical scenario based on the average compound annual rates of increase in seven indicators: the dollar exchange rate, food prices, petrol, diesel, cooking gas, natural gas for vehicles and residential electricity tariffs. The arithmetic average of these rates of increase is around 34.1% a year, based on price changes over the previous three years. This scenario applies the rate over three years, unlike the food scenario calculated over three and a half years. Under the scenario, the price level rises to around 2.41 times its current level by 2030.
Under Zawia3’s scenario, the purchasing power of the targeted EGP 15,000 minimum wage would equal only around EGP 6,200 at October 2026 prices, around 22.5% less than the purchasing power of the current EGP 8,000 minimum wage. This result means that the nominal minimum-wage increase of 87.5% by 2030 may not be enough to preserve current purchasing power if the rates of increase continue as they did over the past three years.
El-Merghany notes that weak competition and the dominance of certain monopolies and foreign agencies over parts of the market could make future prices harder to contain, affecting households’ ability to meet their needs. He tells Zawia3 that assessing the target of raising the minimum wage to EGP 15,000 should not stop at the size of the announced cash increase. It should begin with its actual ability to keep pace with rising living costs. In his view, the essential measure is how much a worker can buy with their pay after the increase, rather than the nominal salary alone.
Ahmed Ragy finishes his shift, handing over to a colleague who will continue covering Madbouly and the media’s celebration of his announcements. Ragy heads to his other job at a different news platform, where he will work an additional night shift to improve his monthly income.
