Statements by US President Donald Trump about the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have reignited the debate over the possibility of the United States mediating to resolve the raging crisis between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the dam’s operating mechanism, while official statements indicate that Egypt has actually been harmed by the initial operation, and the risks are expected to grow as unilateral operation by the Ethiopian side continues without an agreement being reached that guarantees Egypt’s fair share of the Nile waters.
For the third time in a matter of days, Trump spoke about the crisis, saying: “Egypt and Ethiopia have been dealt with; as you know, they were fighting over the dam. Ethiopia built the dam largely with United States money; it is one of the largest dams in the world,” adding, in his remarks carried by media outlets and circulated by users on the “X” platform, formerly Twitter: “But it has a small problem: it does not let much water through to the Nile River. You can imagine that Egypt is not happy about that, because it depends on the Nile River for its life. The Nile is its blood, it is its heart, it is everything to it. We think we have dealt with this matter quite well.”
Trump continued in his speech: “But what happened was a bad thing. I was following the matter while the dam was being built; I received pictures and satellites and everything, and I looked at this huge dam and said, will it stop the water from reaching the Nile River? In any case, it should not have happened this way, but it was funded by the United States. All of this seems a bit crazy, and I think this matter will be resolved in the long term.”
For his part, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi responded in a tweet to the statements of his US counterpart, affirming that Egypt’s position on the dam issue is fixed and does not change with changing international statements or political positions. An official statement issued by the Presidency said that Egypt values any positions that recognise its historical rights to the Nile waters, but at the same time stresses that its water security is a “red line” that cannot be crossed or treated lightly. President El-Sisi affirmed that Egypt will not accept any mediation or international moves that do not proceed from respect for these rights, and will not be drawn into any trade-off that affects its strategic interests, noting that the Egyptian state is continuing its diplomatic moves with all parties and will not give up defending the Egyptian people’s rights to the Nile waters, whether through negotiation or through the other options available.
A few days earlier, Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Hani Sweilam, acknowledged that his country had been affected by the filling of the Ethiopian dam, and that every quantity of water filled by the Ethiopian dam is deducted from the share of Egypt and Sudan, explaining that the effects of the filling were mitigated because of the availability of above-average quantities of rain, which gave them the opportunity to take measures without the ordinary citizen or farmer feeling any hardship. He explained in televised statements that the dam has not been completed so far, and that it has 13 turbines, of which only 8 have been installed, with 5 to 6 turbines of them operating in rotation, stressing that whether or not the dam is completed is a matter for the Ethiopian side, and what concerns Egypt is that its water resources are not affected, now and in the future.
How Should We Read Trump’s Statements?
Sarah Kira, director of the European North African Center for Research, affirms that US President Donald Trump’s recent statements on the Renaissance Dam represent, in her assessment, an attempt to pressure Egypt into accepting Israeli plans in the region, in exchange for promises to secure its water needs and support its position on the dam issue. She stresses, in an exclusive statement to Zawia3, that Egypt, by virtue of its history and its ability to protect its water security, does not submit to such pressures, and possesses the means that enable it to defend its strategic interests, whether through the tools of diplomacy or through its regional and international moves.
She also points out that the timing of Trump’s statements coincides with active Egyptian moves to find a new mechanism for dealing with the Renaissance Dam crisis through the “BRICS” bloc, as Cairo seeks to entrench its position as an active member within this bloc, in line with its orientation towards strengthening its interests away from the traditional pressures of the major powers. She notes that Trump reads these Egyptian moves as escalatory steps, which pushes him to make statements in which he claims to hold the keys to the solution, even though previous US administrations, including his own, had supported the building of the dam at earlier stages.
In addition, the Egyptian researcher specialising in international affairs affirms that the United States had previously entered the mediation track in the Renaissance Dam negotiations, but did not play an active or influential role, which makes it difficult, in her view, for Egypt to accept a new US mediation unless the Ethiopian side provides sufficient guarantees to resolve the crisis at its roots, through the signing of a binding legal agreement that preserves Egypt’s historical rights to the Nile waters, an inherent right that cannot be relinquished.
For his part, Mohamed Hamed, director of the East Mediterranean Forum for Studies, affirms that the US president’s recent statements are good and important, especially if placed in the context of the official Egyptian narrative and Egypt’s vision of its water rights and national security. He stresses that these rights enjoy American appreciation and commitment, a commitment the United States made during the Egyptian-American strategic dialogue held in 2021 between the then Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, and his US counterpart in President Biden’s administration, and he points out that the recent US statements represent an extension of this commitment, which is directly reflected in safeguarding Egypt’s water rights.
Hamed adds that the US administration, by repeating these statements, is sending positive messages towards Egypt, which prompted President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to respond to them by issuing an official statement welcoming the US president’s statements, considering that they serve the preservation of the Egyptian people’s rights to the Nile waters.
The director of the East Mediterranean Forum for Studies believes that Egypt hopes the United States will once again take the initiative to revive the initiative it launched in 2019 under the auspices of the US Treasury Department, which at the time resulted in direct negotiations that brought together the foreign and water resources ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, and he recalls that these negotiations aimed to reach a binding agreement document regulating the filling and operation of the Renaissance Dam.
Hamed explains that Egypt did indeed initial this document, while Ethiopia evaded signing it and Sudan refrained from taking part in the final signing. He affirms that this step represented an important negotiating milestone, which aimed to establish the legal rights of Egypt and Sudan to the Nile waters, in a way that guarantees the interests of the two countries as downstream states in the face of the unilateral actions of Ethiopia as an upstream state.
Hamed points out that Cairo hopes Washington will revive this initiative and work to bring the three parties, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, together again around the negotiating table, in order to complete what began in Washington and to push for the signing of a binding agreement that guarantees the region’s stability and preserves the water rights of the two downstream states. He stresses that putting the Washington document back on the table would help stop unilateral practices on the part of Addis Ababa and achieve the required balance in an issue considered one of the most serious issues of Egyptian national security.
A Water Deficit Threatening National Security
Egypt depends on the waters of the Nile River to an extent reaching 97%, which makes any threat to its water share tantamount to a direct danger to its national security. Although Egypt’s water needs amount to about 114 billion cubic metres annually, the available resources do not exceed 60 billion cubic metres, which creates a water deficit estimated at 54 billion cubic metres annually.
The High Dam in Aswan is considered the largest hydroelectric station in Africa, with a capacity of 2,100 megawatts, according to data from the Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy. However, scientific studies warn that climate change and rising temperatures will lead to an increase in the evaporation rates of Nile water, reducing the river’s flows by a percentage that may exceed 0.5%. Estimates indicate that current evaporation rates in the Aswan reservoir already reach about 10%.
As temperatures rise, coinciding with the implementation of government plans to rationalise energy consumption and for load shedding, citizens’ need for clean water is increasing, which makes it necessary to reconsider Egypt’s water share, especially in light of the growing pressure on resources.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) expects temperatures in some regions of Egypt to rise by between 1.8 and 3.6 degrees Celsius during the current century. This rise will double the need for water consumption in agriculture, along with increased evaporation rates in the Nile River and irrigation networks, while supply is not expected to keep pace with demand, threatening water insecurity and a stifling economic crisis.
Since Ethiopia began building the Renaissance Dam in 2011, Egypt has considered the project a real threat to its water security. In recent years, Cairo has been keen to highlight the catastrophic economic cost of filling and operating the dam unilaterally. According to official estimates, a shortfall of just one billion cubic metres in Egypt’s share of the Nile waters could lead to the loss of 290,000 jobs, a deterioration in the productivity of 130,000 hectares and an increase in food imports of about $150 million, in addition to the loss of $430 million in agricultural production revenues, according to what was presented to the UN Security Council.
The third national report submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change affirms that freshwater resources and agriculture are the sectors most vulnerable to the repercussions of climate change in Egypt, whether as a result of rising temperatures or declining rainfall. To reduce water consumption, the Egyptian government has already reduced the area planted with rice from 1.76 million feddans to 750,000 feddans, in a step aimed at saving about 3 billion cubic metres of water annually.
But the challenges remain present, as studies expect the agricultural area in Upper Egypt to decline by as much as 29.47%, and in the Nile Delta, Egypt’s food basket, by 23.03%. This decline, along with the deterioration in the production of rice and other staple crops such as fruit and vegetables, will threaten food security and raise food prices, portending major economic and social risks, especially since agriculture accounts for about 23% of the labour market in Egypt.
The former Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Mohamed Abdel Aty, acknowledged that Egypt faces a water deficit estimated at about 20 billion cubic metres annually. While the country’s needs reach 80 billion cubic metres, the total available freshwater resources do not exceed 60 billion cubic metres. To close this gap, Egypt relies on reusing agricultural drainage water and shallow groundwater in the Valley and the Delta, as well as on importing quantities of food equivalent to the consumption of 34 billion cubic metres of water annually.
Over the years, the per capita share of fresh water in Egypt has declined dangerously, until it fell below the global water poverty line of 1,000 cubic metres annually, which portends a more complicated water crisis and a multiplication of its negative repercussions on various aspects of life.
For his part, Dr Abbas Sharaki, professor of water resources at Cairo University, comments on US President Donald Trump’s statements on the Renaissance Dam, saying that Trump is seeking to exploit this crisis in an attempt to appear once again as a peacemaker, and perhaps to promote himself as a possible candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Sharaki points out, speaking to Zawia3, that Trump addressed the Renaissance Dam issue twice in less than a month: the first time on 21 June 2025, when he wrote in a tweet that “the United States stupidly funded the Ethiopian dam that reduced the flow of water to the Nile River”, and the second on 14 July, when he affirmed that he had worked on Egypt’s file with “its good neighbour Ethiopia”, which “built a dam that stops water from flowing into the Nile River”, stressing that his country is able to resolve the crisis quickly because it “makes good deals”.
Sharaki recalls that Trump was indeed the sponsor of the round of negotiations that took place between November 2019 and February 2020, which ended in failure to sign an agreement after Ethiopia was absent from the final session, even though Egypt initialled it. Following that, Trump imposed limited sanctions on Addis Ababa, before the Biden administration later lifted them. He adds that Trump’s preoccupation with the coronavirus crisis and the US elections at the time prevented him from completing his efforts on the file.
A Bargaining Chip?
Dr Abbas Sharaki stresses that the Renaissance Dam crisis, despite its seriousness for Egyptian water security, should not be used as a bargaining chip in other issues, such as the displacement of Palestinians to Sinai, a demand that Egypt categorically rejects. He explains that the past five years, which witnessed the first, second, third, fourth and fifth filling stages, represented the most difficult challenge for Egypt, during which it relied on the High Dam and technical measures to avoid a water disaster, something the Egyptian state has succeeded in so far.
He points out that the situation this year is better, as the Nile’s full annual flow is expected to reach Egypt whether or not the Ethiopian dam’s turbines operate. He believes that the opportunity for Trump to lead a new mediation does exist, especially since the dispute over the number of filling years, which was a main point of complication, ended with the completion of the fifth and final filling, which leaves the road open to an agreement that regulates repeated filling and operation and limits the risks of the large storage capacity to Sudan and Egypt.
Sharaki affirms that the Renaissance Dam’s lake is close to recovering its previous storage of 60 billion cubic metres at a level of 638 metres, after reaching 58 billion cubic metres during July 2025. This puts Ethiopia before one of two options: either opening the spillway gates, as happened last September, or continuing storage until the level reaches 640 metres, which would lead to water flowing through the middle passage in its first real test as a natural spillway, which may happen by the end of this July.
Sharaki warns that Ethiopia’s continued storage at the start of the rainy season represents a dangerous gamble, especially for Sudan, stressing that the natural technical rule requires dams to be emptied before the rainy season, not during it.
On the status of the turbines, Sharaki points out that the available information is not fully confirmed. It is certain that two turbines were installed in 2022 and two other turbines in 2024, all of them inaugurated by the Ethiopian prime minister, but the figures on the total number currently installed differ between the Ethiopian and Egyptian accounts. The Egyptian irrigation minister had indicated that their number had reached eight, while Ethiopian sources spoke of the installation of two more.
The Failure of Negotiations
Over four consecutive rounds of negotiations, Egypt and Ethiopia failed to reach any agreement regarding the Renaissance Dam crisis. In December 2023, Cairo officially announced the failure of the last round of negotiations, which lasted four months, affirming that Addis Ababa had used the negotiating track as cover to impose a policy of fait accompli, without regard for the interests of the two downstream states, Egypt and Sudan. Egypt affirmed, in an official statement, that it would continue to closely monitor everything related to the filling and operation processes, while fully retaining its right to defend its water security.
The origin of the crisis goes back to March 2015, when President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi signed a “Declaration of Principles” in Khartoum with Ethiopia and Sudan, an agreement that stipulated Ethiopia’s commitment to take into account the water needs of Egypt and Sudan and to avoid causing them any significant harm during the construction and filling of the Renaissance Dam on the course of the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River. However, subsequent Ethiopian practices, according to Cairo, violated this commitment.
In June 2021, Egypt turned to the UN Security Council in an attempt to mobilise an international position that would pressure Ethiopia to freeze its unilateral moves regarding the construction and filling of the dam. However, the Security Council at the time merely urged the three countries to continue negotiating under the auspices of the African Union, which Egypt and Sudan saw as a position that did not rise to the seriousness of the threat.
Cairo considers that Ethiopia’s decision to begin building the dam in 2011 was a flagrant disregard of the rights of 110 million Egyptians and 46 million Sudanese who depend on the Nile waters as an almost sole source of fresh water. Since then, Egypt has been trying to push Addis Ababa towards a fair and balanced agreement, especially regarding the most sensitive points of dispute: the schedule for filling the dam’s reservoir and its direct impact on the water flows of the two downstream states.
Egypt demanded a filling schedule extending over at least seven years, to avoid any acute water shortage that would threaten the food and economic security of its citizens. In contrast, Ethiopia insisted on filling the reservoir in only three years, which it actually carried out during the first, second, third and fourth fillings, the completion of which was announced in September 2023, without an agreement with Egypt or Sudan.
The disagreement is not limited to the outcomes of the negotiations but extends to how the negotiations themselves are managed: while Egypt and Sudan demand the internationalisation of the issue and recourse to multilateral international mediation, including the United Nations, the United States and the European Union, Ethiopia insists that the African Union remain the sole sponsor of the negotiations, even though previous rounds under African sponsorship produced no tangible progress. Egypt and Sudan stress the need to reach a binding legal agreement that precisely defines the rules for filling and operating the dam, especially in times of drought or prolonged drought. By contrast, Ethiopia rejects the idea of a binding agreement, considering it interference in its national sovereignty.
As of mid-2025, there does not appear to be any breakthrough on the horizon, as there are no indications of a resumption of serious negotiations, nor any agreement on a clear path to a solution. With the dam operating almost fully and the growing impact of climate change on the Nile waters, diplomatic and economic circles warn that the crisis could turn into a sharper conflict, threatening not only the stability of Egypt and Ethiopia but the security of the region as a whole.
