During the current month of February, Egyptian markets have been witnessing notable increases in the prices of a number of basic food commodities in the free market, driven by a seasonal rise in demand as Ramadan approaches, despite the announced decline in the annual inflation rate to 12.5% in February 2025, compared with 23.2% in January of the same year, according to data from the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS). This disparity reflects a growing gap between macro indicators and the actual cost of living, amid official estimates indicating that the poverty rate has exceeded 30% of the population according to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, and has reached 32.5% according to the World Bank, while about 66.2% of Egyptians live below the global poverty line set at $6.8 per day in purchasing power parity terms.
Data published in a number of local newspapers indicate that basic food commodities recorded successive daily increases in free retail markets during the current month of February, among them sunflower oil, which rose to EGP 90.05 per litre, an increase of EGP 4.86, and corn oil, which recorded an increase of EGP 8.17 per litre to reach EGP 107.86, in addition to fresh poultry, which rose by about EGP 0.88 to register EGP 110.18 per kilogram. Egg prices also saw a notable increase during the first week of the month, of about EGP 7 per carton, while the prices of fresh red meat rose by EGP 5.63 per kilogram to register a minimum of EGP 399.72, and the prices of fish and seafood recorded an increase of 1.7%.
During the same month, the price of a kilo of packaged sugar rose from EGP 27 to between EGP 30 and EGP 33.8 per kilo, the price of a kilo of vegetable ghee reached 105.08, an increase of EGP 2.29, and the price of packaged fava beans rose by about EGP 4.82 per kilo to reach EGP 59.98. Rice prices saw mixed movements, registering about EGP 35.5 per kilo during the first week of February, but then declined relatively to about EGP 33, while some vegetables such as onions and potatoes recorded daily increases ranging between 2% and 3%, and flour and lentils saw price fluctuations.
By contrast, the subsidised ration commodities of the Ministry of Supply maintained stable prices throughout the month: ration sugar remained at EGP 12.60 per kilo, blended oil (800 ml) at EGP 30, and flour at EGP 18 per kilo, within a system that includes about 33 subsidised items.
The disparity between the prices of subsidised commodities and their counterparts in the free market, such as the difference between the price of ration sugar at EGP 12.60 and its free-market price of up to EGP 33.8, shows a widening price gap that reflects divergent paths of access to food, as segments of citizens rely partly or wholly on the free market to meet their food needs, alongside the continued operation of the government subsidy system, which provides relatively fixed prices to the groups benefiting from ration cards.
Zohdy El-Shamy, an economist and leading figure in the Socialist Popular Alliance Party, believes that citizens are welcoming Ramadan amid notable increases in the prices of food commodities for which demand traditionally rises during this period, which, in his assessment, gives some producers and traders room to impose additional price increases, aggravating the pressure on households’ ability to meet their basic needs.
He adds that the government’s talk of price stability rests on the slowing pace of increases, not on an actual decline in prices, noting that inflation rates are calculated from the high price levels that markets had already reached in previous years, which pushed a segment of citizens to cut their consumption, especially after the large increases of 2022, which approached 70%.
He tells Zawia3 that “the rate of monthly increases, which fell to about 0.2% at the end of last year, rose again at the start of the current year, registering about 1.2% in January”, attributing this to increases in the main food basket, including poultry, whose prices rose by more than 40% over the last month, and red meat, by 20%, in addition to increases in other commodities such as oil, sugar and rice, while the prices of goods tied to Ramadan consumption habits, such as nuts and yamish (dried fruits), have exceeded the means of a segment of consumers.
He explains that the government announces that it is confronting rising prices by importing frozen poultry and organising “Ahlan Ramadan” exhibitions and government sales outlets, but the effectiveness of these measures remains, in his assessment, limited, as imported frozen poultry was offered at a price of EGP 115 before being reduced to EGP 100, a price level close to that of local poultry, while the discount rates announced at these exhibitions do not differ much from those offered by the major retail chains.
A Monopolistic Market, Not Competition
In the same context, Dr Soad El-Deeb, head of the Media Association for Consumer Protection, affirms that the prices of the most-demanded food commodities have seen seasonal increases before Ramadan for years, in a local market controlled by a limited number of major traders, which at times pushes the state to resort to imports, as happened previously with poultry and eggs, noting that this year’s price increases coincide with a relative decline in the dollar exchange rate.
She tells Zawia3 that markets experienced a state of stagnation over the past period, before demand rose as Ramadan approached, given that food consumption doubles during the month, at a time when purchasing power has declined, which pushed a segment of consumers to reduce their consumption of meat and poultry and to forgo some non-essential goods such as yamish and nuts.
El-Deeb attributes price disparities within the retail sector to the multiplicity of intermediary links in supply chains, which multiplies the final cost of a commodity before it reaches the consumer, and she expects prices to fall after the end of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr as seasonal demand recedes.
For his part, Mahmoud El-Askalany, head of the Citizens Against High Prices Association, points to the continued stagnation in sales of meat and some Ramadan goods such as yamish and nuts, despite their abundance compared with previous years, attributing this to their high prices, and adding that meat sales fell this year compared with last year, with most consumers focusing on buying basic goods.
He believes that increased demand for food commodities such as sugar before Ramadan contributes to higher prices, in parallel with some traders’ efforts to maximise profit margins, and considers that the “Ahlan Ramadan” exhibitions this year helped increase the availability of food commodities and relatively curb their price increases compared with last season, which saw higher price levels due to the higher dollar exchange rate.
He tells Zawia3 that poultry prices rose by about EGP 30 per kilogram as Ramadan approached, which pushed the government to announce the opening of frozen poultry imports, followed by a relative price cut by producers and traders, though prices remain at high levels, while vegetables have not seen major increases despite higher demand, given their perishable nature.
Lower Production Inputs, Higher Retail Prices
The recent increases in the prices of some food commodities came after a notable decline in the prices of a number of basic inputs during January of this year, compared with their levels in the same period of 2024 and 2025, according to data on wholesale prices at factories and farms up to the end of January 2026, which Zawia3 has reviewed.
In the grain market, the price of Russian wheat with an 11.5% extraction rate fell from EGP 21,600 in January 2024 to EGP 12,400 in January 2026, a decline of 42.6% over two years and of 5.7% compared with 2025, while the price of extraction-24 flour fell from EGP 24,000 to EGP 13,800 over the same period, a decrease of 42.5% over two years and 11.8% year on year. The price of extraction-27 flour also fell from EGP 24,200 in 2024 to EGP 14,000 in 2026, a decline of 42.2% over two years and 11.4% compared with last year.
In the oils sector, the price of refined olein oil fell from EGP 81,000 in 2024 to EGP 56,000 in 2026, a decrease of 30.9% over two years and 8.9% between 2025 and 2026, while the price of refined sugar fell from EGP 34,000 to EGP 22,800 over the same period, a decline of 32.9% over two years and 21.9% during the last year.
Prices of yellow corn, whether imported from Argentina or Brazil, fell from EGP 19,800 in 2024 to EGP 12,000 in 2026, a decline of 39.4% over two years and 11.1% compared with last year, while the price of Ukrainian corn fell from EGP 18,900 to EGP 11,800 over the same period, by 37.6% over two years and 6.4% annually.
As for local broad-grain white rice, its price fell from EGP 29,800 in 2024 to EGP 24,000 in 2026, a decline of 19.5% over two years and 14.3% compared with 2025, while local fava beans recorded a limited decline from EGP 47,000 in 2024 to EGP 46,000 in 2026, a decrease of 2.1% over two years, after having risen to EGP 48,000 in 2025. Imported fava beans, by contrast, fell from EGP 32,000 to EGP 26,000 over the same period, by 18.8% over two years and 16.1% year on year.
White egg prices (a carton of 30 eggs at the farm) also fell from EGP 148 in January 2024 to EGP 110 in January 2026, a decrease of 25.7% over two years and of 26.7% compared with 2025, after having registered EGP 150 in January of last year.
For his part, Dr Alaa Ezz, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce and the Federation of African Chambers and adviser to the head of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce, explains that the wholesale prices of basic food commodities such as oil, wheat, corn, sugar and flour are announced according to specific pricing indicators, whereas price differences widen in free retail markets depending on brands and the costs of packaging and transport, in addition to the profit margins added by the intermediary links in supply chains, which include wholesalers, semi-wholesalers and retailers, until the commodity reaches the final consumer.
He points out that these differences are relatively smaller at consumer cooperatives and the “Ahlan Ramadan” exhibitions, as they rely on direct supply from producers or importers, noting that retail prices also vary with geographic location and commercial rent levels, while the wholesale selling price from the factory, farm or importer remains the baseline for comparison.
He adds that producing companies adjust the pricing of their products according to changes in production costs, amid repeated fuel price increases last year and the resulting rise in transport costs, electricity bills and workers’ wages following the increase in the minimum wage, explaining that the decline in the dollar exchange rate against the pound offset only a limited part of these increases, while distributors and retailers set final selling prices according to operating costs and the nature of local demand.
He tells Zawia3 that “Egyptian law criminalises monopolistic practices such as withholding goods, while it does not impose mandatory pricing on most goods, allowing the trader to set the selling price according to the cost structure, while the consumer retains the freedom to choose between different outlets”.
He attributes the recent increases in egg and poultry prices to higher seasonal demand as Ramadan approaches, noting at the same time that current price levels remain lower by up to 40% compared with the same period of 2024 and 2025, amid relative stability in exchange rates, and explaining that the government intervened by opening frozen poultry imports to limit price increases.
He denies that there have been any increases in the official wholesale selling price of sugar, attributing any rise in retail markets to the repercussions of the decision to open exports, and affirming that the strategic sugar stock exceeds one million tonnes, enough to cover more than a year of local consumption, at a time when the local selling price is lower than the global price.
He notes that the cycle of price increases linked to higher seasonal demand usually lasts about two weeks, until supply stabilises and consumer stockpiling slows, pointing to the spread of about 3,700 “Ahlan Ramadan” exhibition stalls and tents across the governorates, offering food commodities at reduced prices with the aim of limiting price fluctuations during the month.
He affirms the availability of reserves of basic food commodities ranging from 3 to 12 months, including oil stocks covering about 7 to 8 months, wheat 4 to 6 months, and sugar 6 to 7 months, in addition to shipments of up to 924,000 tonnes not yet unloaded at Egyptian ports and about 2.9 million tonnes more on their way to the country, as well as contracts currently being executed, alongside the stocks of distribution chains covering an average of 47 days, and household stocks that add about 19 additional days of consumption.
Inflation and Declining Purchasing Power
Seasonal demand linked to the approach of Ramadan is casting its shadow over the prices of storable food commodities, amid increased demand for them, which may lead to further increases at the start of the month. At the same time, the inflation rate announced by the Central Bank this February registered a slight decline of about 0.3%, as explained by economist Dr Ahmed Shawky, who expects a seasonal wave of inflation in food prices during the period from February to mid-March.
He tells Zawia3 that the real value of household incomes has declined as a result of high inflation rates, which earlier reached about 40% before falling to 11.9%, while wages did not see parallel increases, which affected households’ purchasing power and pushed some of them to reduce their consumption of animal protein in favour of plant protein. Nevertheless, households try to maintain the consumption patterns associated with Ramadan and Eid by buying seasonal products in smaller quantities or turning to low-cost brands and outlets.
He believes that consumer complexes and Ramadan exhibitions help limit the rise in food prices during the current period by providing goods at reduced prices, attributing price disparities in retail markets to differing pricing mechanisms, as these markets are subject to supply and demand. He adds that achieving relative price stability remains contingent on increasing local production, given the market’s reliance on imports to cover a large share of its food needs.
The price increases ahead of Ramadan come at a time when official data point to a relative improvement in some macro indicators of the Egyptian economy: the annual inflation rate in January 2026 stood at about 10.1% nationwide and 11.9% in urban areas, on a downward trend compared with the 2023 peak, while the pound’s exchange rate against the dollar has stabilised recently in a range of 46.7 to 46.9 pounds.
Despite expectations that GDP growth will exceed 4% in the current fiscal year, and the stability of foreign reserves, living pressures remain present for a segment of middle- and low-income households, especially as the minimum wage has reached EGP 7,000 per month, against a lower average wage in the private sector, which limits the ability of these groups to absorb repeated increases in food prices.
The economist believes that continued foreign currency inflows from sources such as tourism, foreign direct investment, manufacturing industries and remittances from Egyptians abroad may help reduce the budget deficit and ease inflationary pressures in the medium term, which may gradually be reflected in price levels.
The increases recorded during February reflect an overlap between seasonal factors linked to higher demand and structural challenges in the food market, as official indicators point to a relative downward path in inflation rates, while increases in the prices of some goods remain palpable in households’ daily spending, especially with the persistent gap between free-market prices and subsidised outlets.
With price pressures on basic goods continuing, and the improvement in purchasing power slowing despite the improvement in some macro indicators, the food price file remains tied to disparities in income and spending levels among different social groups, with these groups growing more sensitive to price fluctuations as Ramadan approaches.
Editorial correction: The first version of the report stated that the price of refined olein oil fell by 24.7% over two years; the correct figure is 30.9%, according to the two prices mentioned in the same paragraph (from EGP 81,000 to EGP 56,000).
