In one residential neighbourhood, a woman who works in domestic service expressed her deep distress at the sharp rise in the prices of gas cylinders, saying that the price of a cylinder had reached EGP 300, and adding agitatedly: “We are worn out by the prices. Have mercy.”
Near a health unit in Cairo, citizens expressed their resentment at the new increase in fuel prices, pointing out that the cost of filling a car’s tank had exceeded EGP 1,000. Signs of anger and resentment were clearly visible on the faces of passers-by, at a time when citizens’ complaints about the difficulty of securing their basic needs because of successive waves of price rises keep recurring. On the eve of the government’s announcement of the fuel price rise, a single conversation prevailed among people, as prices became the focus of daily discussion, and the voice of silent anger was present in the details of everyday life.

In Egypt, where the poor make up more than 37% of the total population according to official estimates, the government decided to raise petrol prices for the 20th time in six years, and the second time in 2025, as part of applying the automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products, which links the local price to changes in the global market and the exchange rate. According to official data, the price of a litre of 95-octane petrol rose to EGP 21 and of 92-octane petrol to EGP 19.25, while 80-octane petrol reached EGP 17.75 and diesel EGP 17.50 per litre. Vehicle gas was set at EGP 10 per cubic metre.

The government said in its statement that the increase came in response to the “gap in production and import costs” resulting from higher shipping prices and fluctuating exchange rates, affirming that the decision aims to fix prices for a full year to ensure market stability and reduce the burden on the state budget. However, this justification did not succeed in calming the street, which received the decision with anger and resentment, amid continuing pressures on living conditions and rising prices of basic goods and services.

The latest rise comes despite the decline in global oil prices in recent months, which settled at around USD 78 per barrel of Brent crude, about USD 10 below the average price in mid-2024. This raised questions about the extent of the government’s actual commitment to the automatic pricing mechanism, and about how much weight the local dollar rate against the pound carries in the pricing equation.

Repeated increases

Fuel prices have recorded successive increases over the past years. Between 18 October 2019 and 18 October 2025, the average price of petrol roughly doubled, after the government raised prices eight consecutive times as part of a plan for the gradual liberalisation of prices and linking them to the global market, while the pace of increases accelerated in recent years, with three increases in 2024 and two in 2025, owing to economic pressures such as currency devaluation and fluctuations in global oil prices.

During the current year, prices rose twice. The first increase, last April, raised the price of 80-octane petrol to EGP 15.75, 92-octane petrol to EGP 17.25 and 95-octane petrol to EGP 19. The second increase, on 17 October, then raised them to EGP 17.75, EGP 19.25 and EGP 21 respectively, while the government committed to fixing prices for at least a year after this increase, unless major changes occur in global oil prices.

The chart shows the evolution of petrol and diesel prices in Egypt between 2021 and 2025, a period that saw 14 consecutive increases under the automatic fuel pricing mechanism.

Although this process actually began in 2014, it accelerated after 2020 as financial pressures on the state intensified. In the aftermath of the (COVID-19) pandemic, fuel prices were frozen in late 2020 in support of economic recovery, before the Automatic Pricing Committee for Petroleum Products resumed its increases gradually from 2021 onwards. Since then, the committee has announced, every three months, price review decisions that link local prices to global oil movements and the exchange rate, in implementation of a reform programme backed by the International Monetary Fund that aims to achieve pricing reflecting the real cost of fuel in the local market.

During this period, the increases ranged each time between 5% and 15%, covering all types of petrol (80, 92 and 95 octane) and often diesel, which is the backbone of transport and production in the country. By this October, prices reached their highest historical levels, as the price of a litre of 95-octane petrol reached about EGP 21, 92-octane EGP 19.25 and 80-octane EGP 17.75, while diesel rose to EGP 17.50 per litre.

The government says that these steps are necessary to achieve “fiscal sustainability” and to provide resources for social protection programmes such as Takaful and Karama, but criticism is mounting in return over their inflationary effects, as the rise in diesel alone contributed to an increase of more than 30% in food prices during 2024. Transport and commuting costs also rose by between 15% and 25%, which increased the pressure on the budgets of middle- and low-income families.

With the announcement by the pricing committee that the latest increase may be the final one before a phase of relative price stability, Egypt appears to be heading towards a phase of free fuel pricing, in which the price is determined on the basis of international benchmarks and the exchange rate.

This interactive chart shows the evolution of petrol and diesel prices in Egypt between 2019 and 2025, during which the country saw 14 official increases and two cuts since the pricing committee’s first decision in October 2019.

Affected by fuel prices, the prices of butane gas cylinders have seen successive increases since 2019, rising from EGP 65 in 2019 to EGP 225 this October. This is in addition to higher production and transport costs, as well as the effects of fluctuations in global oil prices and the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar.

The factors driving fuel price rises have direct repercussions on transport and on the prices of goods and services. The automatic pricing mechanism, linked to global oil prices and the dollar exchange rate, means that any increase in import costs or any weakening of the pound against the dollar is immediately reflected in petrol and diesel prices, and consequently in the cost of operating buses, microbuses and private transport services.

Higher fuel prices also increase the cost of transporting and delivering foodstuffs, canned goods and basic services, which pushes traders and manufacturers to raise the prices of their products to offset the additional expenses. In this way, the causes of fuel price rises, from oil fluctuations to subsidy policies and public finance reform, become intertwined with mounting economic pressures on families, as citizens find themselves forced to pay higher prices for transport, food and daily services.

In a parliamentary move, Dr Freddy El-Bayadi, a member of the House of Representatives and deputy head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, submitted an urgent question to the government, describing the new decision as “an extension of the approach of levying and draining the Egyptian citizen without any real commitment to the social protection imposed by the constitution”.

In the parliamentary question, which Zawia3 has seen, El-Bayadi relied on Article (101) of the Constitution, which grants Parliament the power of oversight and accountability, and on Article (8), which obliges the state to achieve social justice and guarantee a decent life for low-income groups. The MP asked, in a sharp tone, whether the directives of the International Monetary Fund had become “above the provisions of the constitution and the rights of citizens”.

El-Bayadi called on the government to answer five direct and clear questions before the people, including: “What is the pricing formula on which the state bases fuel pricing? And why is it treated as if it were a sovereign secret? If oil prices are falling globally, why are they rising locally? Has implementing the instructions of the International Monetary Fund become a priority that overrides the constitutional provisions on social protection? What is the government’s plan to compensate the groups most affected by the new increase? And for how long will the Egyptian citizen remain the sole financer of every crisis, without a fair vision or a balanced economic policy?”

An unjustified increase

In a statement to Zawia3, professor of political economy Dr Karim El-Omda says that the fuel subsidy file is one of the most sensitive files in the Egyptian economy, as it is subject to continuous scrutiny by the International Monetary Fund. He explains that the Egyptian government has raised fuel prices five times in just two years, a very high number given the economic burdens borne by citizens. He believes that the latest increase is unjustified, especially in light of assurances by IMF officials that raising fuel prices is not a pressing demand at present.

El-Omda adds that the government had previously stated that this increase would be the last, but it is clear that the matter is not settled, as it may be followed by new increases if the dollar rises against the pound or the price of a barrel of oil rises globally. He points out that fuel subsidies have always been one of the difficult files facing governments since the era of President Sadat, noting that the current government is the only one that has abolished subsidies almost completely, despite the negative effects of this on inflation rates and living standards.

El-Omda stresses that a reasonable proportion of energy subsidies must remain in place under the current economic conditions, considering that electricity and fuel are the foundation of industry and production, so raising their prices directly affects prices and inflation levels. He notes that “ordinary citizens and low-income government employees cannot bear the successive shocks in fuel prices”, explaining that the cost of daily transport has risen significantly, as short trips within the city now cost no less than EGP 6 to EGP 7, while the cost of travelling between governorates or over long distances exceeds EGP 50 a day for employees and students.

El-Omda continues that these increases create enormous inflationary pressures on Egyptians, pointing out that runaway inflation has remained one of the most complex files facing all successive Egyptian governments. He also criticises the current government’s dealings with the International Monetary Fund, affirming that the fourth and fifth reviews of the Fund’s programme with Egypt are still postponed because of the government’s weak performance on the core files the Fund demands, such as transparency, governance, eliminating corruption, and the state’s exit from economic activity through government offerings.

El-Omda concludes his statement by affirming that the government has chosen the easier path of raising petrol and electricity prices instead of implementing the difficult structural reforms the Fund demands, considering that this approach reflects a failure of economic management, under a weak House of Representatives that does not exercise effective oversight over decisions that directly affect citizens’ lives.

Inappropriate timing

For her part, journalist and economic researcher Mervana Maher says in a statement to Zawia3 that the government justifies the decision to raise fuel prices by the rising cost of petroleum products to the state budget, noting that the real motive behind the decision is to ease the burden of expenditure on the energy subsidy item amid mounting financial pressures.

She adds that the latest increase came at a completely inappropriate time, explaining that official indicators speak of falling inflation rates while the reality in the markets shows the opposite, as the prices of goods are rising across the board in all sectors. She continues: “The latest increase, which amounted to EGP 2 per litre, is large compared with previous increases, and raising the price of diesel is automatically reflected in the cost of transport and production, and consequently in all prices in the market.

Mervana points out that the decision came at a time when the Central Bank had decided to cut interest rates, which negatively affected pensioners and segments of the middle class who relied on the returns from bank savings certificates as a fixed source of income. She notes that “economic decisions sometimes seem contradictory: cutting interest rates puts pressure on savers, and raising fuel prices raises their cost of living at the same time.”

The journalist and economic researcher criticises the timing of the decision, considering it the government taking the easy way out instead of looking for fairer solutions or real economic alternatives, and affirming that the International Monetary Fund itself did not explicitly ask Egypt for this latest increase. She considers that “there were alternatives available, but they are politically more difficult, such as reconsidering export subsidies, which have doubled in recent years, restructuring the special funds, which remain an opaque file, or developing the mineral resources sector in a way that provides stable revenues for the state.”

The researcher concluded by saying that every economic decision has more than one dimension, but the continued focus on quick solutions such as raising prices “reflects a shortcoming in long-term economic vision”, affirming that social justice and financial innovation must be at the heart of any genuine economic reform.

Why is the government raising fuel prices?

For his part, economic expert and leading member of the Socialist Popular Alliance Party Zohdy El-Shamy tells Zawia3 that the direct reason for raising the prices of petrol, butane and gas lies in the Egyptian government’s obligations towards the International Monetary Fund under the existing agreement between the two sides, which makes these decisions directly linked to the Fund’s conditions and dictates. He explains that this direction intersects with the general levying policy pursued by the government, which is based mainly on increasing the tax and non-tax burdens on citizens instead of seeking fairer and more sustainable structural solutions.

El-Shamy adds that the absence of a real institutional opposition, because of what he describes as “severe restrictions on public freedoms”, has allowed the government to pass such decisions without effective political or oversight resistance, which weakens society’s ability to confront economic policies that directly affect citizens’ lives. He points out that the rise in fuel and gas prices will naturally lead to a sharp increase in the cost of transport and commuting, which will be reflected in the prices of all goods and services, from foodstuffs to industrial products, multiplying the burdens on low- and middle-income Egyptian families.

The economic expert affirms that the government is failing, as usual, to control inflation rates or bring them down to acceptable levels, pointing out that forecasts point to continued price rises in the coming months, which prompted the Central Bank itself to raise its inflation forecasts for the coming period. He believes that this situation reflects the absence of a comprehensive economic vision, as the government confines itself to easy measures such as raising prices and taxes, without offering real alternatives to support local production or strengthen social protection.

El-Shamy continues that the current government is captive to a single economic approach that it has followed for more than ten years; indeed, the roots of this direction go back, as he puts it, to the open-door policies of the 1970s, which entrenched excessive reliance on foreign loans and aid and neglected building a strong national productive base. He affirms that the current approach repeats the same old mistakes by relying on ready-made prescriptions from international financial institutions, despite previous experience having proved the failure of these policies to achieve real development or improve citizens’ living standards.

El-Shamy concludes by affirming that addressing the economic crisis in Egypt requires a radical shift in the philosophy of economic management, based on social justice, support for the most affected groups, and restoring national economic sovereignty, away from dependence on the conditions of the International Monetary Fund or other global financial institutions.

The International Monetary Fund said in its report issued last March that the Egyptian government is still proceeding with implementing its commitments relating to the gradual reduction of energy subsidies, with the aim of aligning local prices with the actual cost of production and supply by next December. This direction comes as part of a broader package of economic reforms aimed at reducing the large current account deficit and improving the efficiency of public spending, as the Fund affirmed in its statement.

On the other hand, the Egyptian government stated that it will continue to subsidise diesel as the main fuel for public transport and for agricultural and industrial production, even if this requires raising the prices of petrol and natural gas above the actual cost level to offset the subsidy gap. The Ministry of Petroleum considered that this policy aims to maintain the stability of public transport prices and to avoid excessive inflationary waves affecting low-income groups.

The International Monetary Fund is exerting increasing pressure on the Egyptian government to implement structural reforms of the subsidy system covering fuel, electricity and foodstuffs, in parallel with expanding social safety nets such as the Takaful and Karama programmes and direct cash transfers. These measures come under the USD 8 billion loan agreement, which links the disbursement of its tranches to Cairo’s commitment to implementing these reforms and strengthening transparency in public financial management. Economic experts point out that through these policies the Fund seeks to achieve more realistic energy pricing that takes account of changes in global markets and the exchange rate, but in return it raises domestic concerns about the widening gap between the cost of living and actual incomes, as citizens’ purchasing power continues to erode.

Amid this escalating debate between a government that justifies its decisions on economic grounds, an International Monetary Fund pressing for harsh reforms, and a citizen standing alone in the face of rising prices, the price equation in Egypt seems to have become as far as it could be from social justice. Every fuel increase is immediately translated into new burdens on people, without being matched by an improvement in incomes, services or even the level of transparency about how decisions are made. While the government talks of “fiscal sustainability”, the street talks of “daily draining”, and of a general feeling that economic crises are always solved out of the pockets of the poor.

Editorial correction: The first version of this report said the period from 2021 to 2025 saw 20 consecutive fuel price increases. The correct number is 14, of which 13 covered petrol and one, in May 2023, covered diesel only, according to the decisions of the fuel pricing committee.

Editorial correction: The first version of this report said the country had seen 20 official fuel price increases since the automatic pricing mechanism began. The correct figure is 14 increases and two cuts between the pricing committee’s first decision in October 2019 and October 2025, according to the decisions of the fuel pricing committee.

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