Egypt Raises Fuel Prices Again: War Is the Justification, Egyptians Pay the Bill

Egypt’s government announced higher prices for several petroleum products and vehicle gas on Tuesday morning. It said the decision responded to exceptional conditions caused by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their direct impact on international energy markets.

Petrol 95 rose from EGP 21 to EGP 24 per liter, petrol 92 from EGP 19.25 to EGP 22.25, and petrol 80 from EGP 17.75 to EGP 20.75. Diesel rose from EGP 17.50 to EGP 20.50 per liter.

A household LPG cylinder rose from EGP 225 to EGP 275, and a 25-kilogram cylinder from EGP 450 to EGP 550. Vehicle gas rose from EGP 10 to EGP 13 per cubic meter.

The pricing decision increased vehicle gas by 30% and also changed household natural-gas tariffs by consumption band. The EGP 10–13 increase applies to vehicle gas; domestic tariffs follow the separate bands below.

The first household band, up to 30 cubic meters monthly, rose from EGP 5 to EGP 6 per cubic meter. The second, between 30 and 60 cubic meters, rose from EGP 6 to EGP 8. The third, above 60 cubic meters, rose from EGP 9 to EGP 12.

This is the third increase within a year, following April and October 2025. October prices were EGP 21 for petrol 95, EGP 19.25 for petrol 92, EGP 17.75 for petrol 80 and EGP 17.50 for diesel. The government justified that increase as narrowing the gap between domestic and international prices and promised to freeze prices for at least a full year.

The cabinet also announced conservation measures in government entities and energy-intensive activities to reduce fuel and electricity consumption, including reviewing operations in projects and services heavily dependent on diesel, fuel oil and petrol.

The measures include reducing street-lighting and illuminated advertising in public squares, alongside coordination with international energy partners to maintain supplies and stabilize domestic markets.

The decisions coincided with the twelfth day of military escalation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Heavy air and missile exchanges targeted Iranian military, oil and nuclear facilities, while the conflict’s repercussions extended to more than twelve countries, including Gulf states, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.

Maritime and air navigation suffered severe disruption. The Strait of Hormuz, through which the report estimates around a quarter of global oil trade passes, became almost closed to commercial shipping, with traffic falling by 70–90%. Major shipping firms rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately ten to fifteen days and substantially increasing costs.

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Bab El-Mandeb compounded shipping disruption. Energy and freight prices rose amid concerns over worsening raw-material shortages and industrial and food deliveries delayed for weeks or months.

An urgent parliamentary response

Maha Abdel Nasser, an Egyptian Social Democratic Party member of parliament, submitted an urgent briefing request to the prime minister and petroleum minister about the increases and their effects on citizens. She cited a 17% rise for petrol 80, 30% for vehicle gas, approximately 20–30% for household gas and 22% for LPG cylinders, saying the decision had caused public anxiety.

She questioned the economic and social criteria behind the decision, particularly as oil had eased to around $90 per barrel. Energy prices have risen sharply since 2014, she said, calling for clarity on pricing, protection plans and measures to limit the effect on goods and services.

Abdel Nasser tells Zawia3 that exceptional geopolitical circumstances do not adequately explain the decision. In her view, increases over the last decade have far exceeded official justifications: the government does not reduce prices when international oil falls, and assurances about improvement after conflicts end are unreliable.

She sees the decade-long rise as evidence of failure in economic management. Higher fuel costs affect transport, logistics and living costs, while Takaful and Karama and ration-card programs do not meet basic needs. Purchasing power cannot absorb further increases, she argues, and households are already under heavy pressure.

On energy conservation, Abdel Nasser says the government has repeatedly made commitments. Effective measures in public buildings, lighting and air conditioning should come before additional pressure on citizens. Regional developments affect Egypt, she stresses, but do not justify policies that deepen economic vulnerability.

Freddy El-Bayadi, a member of parliament and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s deputy chair for international affairs, says the 14–17% fuel increase is another step in policies that have placed the largest crisis burdens on citizens since Mostafa Madbouly’s government took office in 2018. Petrol 80 has risen from EGP 5.50 to approximately EGP 20.75; petrol 92 is EGP 22.25, petrol 95 EGP 24 and diesel EGP 20.50.

In a statement, El-Bayadi warns that diesel increases directly affect transport and goods and services, while wages have not kept pace with inflation. He announced a briefing request about the reasons for the increase, the pricing structure and inadequate social protection.

He asks how much the treasury has earned from successive increases, why citizens alone should bear regional and international crisis costs, what happened to protection promises, and why the government does not transparently disclose actual costs, taxes and fees in fuel pricing.

Global disruption cannot be a reason to suspend accountability, El-Bayadi argues; it demands greater accountability. The question is how the government managed the crisis and protected citizens, rather than passing its effects entirely into their household budgets.

He also submitted an urgent parliamentary question to the prime minister and petroleum and electricity ministers about readiness to manage energy and secure supplies amid the Iran–Israel–US escalation and its regional spillover.

The region is returning to a “crisis economy,” he says, with higher navigation risks, shipping and insurance costs and volatile energy prices placing direct pressure on energy-importing countries’ budgets, including Egypt’s.

Egypt’s electricity system is especially sensitive to disrupted gas supplies. El-Bayadi cites International Energy Agency data indicating that natural gas supplied around 76% of electricity generation in 2023, making reduced availability or sharp cost increases a direct threat to grid stability.

He says Egypt has increasingly returned to LNG imports, which reached a record approximately 8.92 million tonnes in 2025 and are projected to exceed eleven million tonnes in 2026 according to international estimates. This reflects a fragile domestic supply–demand balance.

The twenty-first fuel-price increase since 2019

Fuel prices have risen in successive waves since July 2019. At that time petrol 80 cost EGP 6.75 per liter, petrol 92 EGP 8 and petrol 95 EGP 9. Diesel cost EGP 6.75, a household LPG cylinder EGP 65, and industrial fuel oil EGP 4,500 per tonne.

In October 2019, petrol 80 fell to EGP 6.50, petrol 92 to EGP 7.75 and petrol 95 to EGP 8.75. Diesel remained at EGP 6.75, while industrial fuel oil fell to EGP 4,250 per tonne.

During 2020, petrol 80 ranged between EGP 6.25 and EGP 6.50, petrol 92 between EGP 7.50 and EGP 7.75, and petrol 95 between EGP 8.50 and EGP 8.75. Diesel generally remained at EGP 6.75. Between April and October 2021, petrol prices gradually rose to EGP 7, EGP 8.25 and EGP 9.25 respectively. Diesel stayed at EGP 6.75, while industrial fuel oil reached EGP 4,200 and vehicle gas EGP 3.75 per cubic meter.

In 2022, petrol 80 ranged between EGP 7.25 and EGP 8, petrol 92 between EGP 8.50 and EGP 9.25, and petrol 95 between EGP 9.50 and EGP 10.75. Diesel reached EGP 7.25 per liter.

Prices rose markedly in 2023: petrol 80 reached EGP 10, petrol 92 EGP 11.50, petrol 95 EGP 12.50 and diesel EGP 8.25 per liter.

In 2024, petrol 80 reached EGP 13.75, petrol 92 EGP 15.25, petrol 95 EGP 17 and diesel EGP 13.50. Industrial fuel oil reached EGP 9,500 per tonne and vehicle gas EGP 7 per cubic meter.

Fuel rose twice in 2025. In April, petrol 95 reached EGP 19, petrol 92 EGP 17.25, petrol 80 EGP 15.75 and diesel EGP 15.50. Vehicle gas remained EGP 7 per cubic meter and industrial fuel oil EGP 10,500 per tonne. The EGP 15.75 figure corrects the EGP 15.25 entry in the original timeline, using the Petroleum Ministry’s later announcement identifying the previous price.

Household LPG cylinders of 12.5 kilograms ranged between EGP 150 and EGP 200, and commercial cylinders between EGP 300 and EGP 400. Fuel oil supplied to electricity generation and food industries remained unchanged.

In October 2025, petrol 95 reached EGP 21, petrol 92 EGP 19.25, petrol 80 EGP 17.75, and diesel EGP 17.50. Vehicle gas rose to EGP 10 per cubic meter. The EGP 17.75 price, confirmed by the ministry announcement, corrects an inconsistent EGP 17.25 figure in the original historical timeline.

The latest increase took effect on March 10: petrol 80 at EGP 20.75, petrol 92 at EGP 22.25, petrol 95 at EGP 24, diesel at EGP 20.50, and vehicle gas at EGP 13 per cubic meter.

Hossam Arafat, professor of petroleum and mining engineering and former head of the General Petroleum Products Division, says the latest fuel and gas increases came under what the government described as exceptional circumstances. They therefore fall outside the usual automatic-pricing mechanism, reviewed every three months in the first weeks of January, April, July and October, with a normal adjustment ceiling of 10% upward or downward.

The increase exceeded those limits and came outside scheduled review dates, indicating an exceptional decision outside the pricing committee’s usual process, Arafat says.

Regional geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran–Israel escalation, have increased market uncertainty, driven energy prices higher and put pressure on emerging-market currencies as some foreign investors exit.

“An increase of around three pounds per liter is relatively large, close to 17%, and socially ill-timed before the holidays,” Arafat tells Zawia3. He argues that the government used it to offset part of the cost of subsidizing other strategic commodities such as bread, oil and sugar and to redistribute spending resources.

Higher energy costs will affect multiple sectors, particularly industry, through transport, shipping, insurance and imported raw materials, a pattern he describes as an international consequence of the crisis.

The sudden increase across vehicle gas, household gas and LPG as well as petroleum fuels could encourage unofficial increases in areas with weak distribution oversight, he warns. Announcing and implementing the decision within hours leaves consumers little time to prepare and creates opportunities for monopolistic practices.

Arafat says the prime minister has suggested prices could fall if international prices decline. He considers this possible but dependent on oil prices, the dollar exchange rate and production, transport and distribution costs. Egypt reduced petrol prices by EGP 0.25 per liter during the 2020 pandemic, he notes.

At Tuesday’s press conference, Prime Minister Madbouly said regional war had severely disrupted global supply chains, particularly energy. Oil rose from around $69 before the war to $84, then $93, and later $120 before easing to $92–93, creating a large gap between actual prices and budget assumptions.

Daily oil volatility directly affects pricing calculations, he said. The government had acted to maintain fuel and gas supplies for electricity, industry and households. It faced a choice between freezing prices and making the treasury absorb all increases or taking preventive measures to maintain economic stability and production.

Madbouly said the government chose the latter while still absorbing a substantial share of costs, denying that citizens bore the full burden. The budget assumed approximately $61 per barrel, while subsequent prices had risen by around 50%, he said.

Higher living costs and weaker purchasing power

Economist Mostafa Abdel Salam calls the record fuel increases during Ramadan surprising given difficult living conditions. He argues that the government should have waited until the war ended to assess the economic consequences. Oil had already fallen from $120 to around $90, and could fall further as major countries release strategic reserves, undermining the economic rationale for the increase in his view.

Governments usually manage temporary oil-price spikes through alternatives such as lower fuel taxes, increased supply, more imports or strategic stocks, Abdel Salam tells Zawia3. Economic decisions should respond to sustained increases rather than temporary spikes. He believes Egypt already intended to raise prices under external pressure, particularly the IMF program’s subsidy-reduction commitments, and used the war-related energy shock as the opportunity.

Reversing a promise not to raise prices is familiar, he says, recalling repeated currency floats despite assurances otherwise. Revenue needs and international financial institutions’ approval influence pricing decisions rather than citizens’ interests directly, he argues.

Higher fuel costs and resulting increases in transport, food, interest, housing rents, electricity and water bills will fuel inflation and weaken purchasing power, Abdel Salam warns. Effects extend to irrigation and agricultural transport, industrial production, possible metro, railway and public-transport fare increases, the investment climate, exchange markets, growth and job creation.

The Central Crisis Committee adopted preventive measures to reduce fuel and electricity use in government entities and energy-intensive projects. Governors were tasked with reducing street lighting and regulating illuminated advertisements. The package reprioritizes spending, delays non-urgent expenditure, reduces travel and conferences, and focuses on projects nearing completion.

It also tightens market oversight and considers referring price manipulators to military courts to prevent exploitation, alongside repricing some petroleum products to cover part of the international increase.

On March 10, the government announced two additional months of support for Takaful and Karama beneficiaries and vulnerable households, while preparing a wage-improvement package for fiscal year 2026/27 to support purchasing power and market stability.

Economist Zuhdi El-Shami argues that the government used international circumstances to accelerate price increases. Oil briefly reached around $120 before falling toward $90, he says, meaning the rise was not stable enough to justify large domestic increases.

He criticizes fuel increases approaching 17% as disproportionate to actual international developments. They continue a long-running rise in Egyptian energy prices under economic-reform and international financial commitments, he says, with domestic prices moving upward even when global markets decline.

“LPG cylinders have seen large successive increases over about ten years,” El-Shami tells Zawia3. Petrol and diesel increases will directly affect inflation, especially through immediate fare increases in many governorates, which feed into goods and services.

The effects extend beyond transport to production and distribution throughout the economy. Higher fuel costs gradually enter final consumer prices, adding pressure amid rising food, rent and basic-service costs and imbalances between wages, pensions and inflation, he warns.

Estimating poverty has become harder as some official data are no longer published, El-Shami says. Yet growing pressure after exchange-rate liberalization and pound depreciation has widened poverty. A weaker currency reduces income’s purchasing power, particularly against imported goods and when measured in dollars.

Egypt was previously classified among middle-income countries, he notes, but depreciation and higher prices have reduced real incomes and enlarged the population exposed to economic pressure.

Continued energy-price increases without parallel income protection and better wages could deepen social and economic pressure, he warns, calling for policies that account for social consequences and limit inflation’s impact.

How are fuel prices set in Egypt?

Mohamed Saad El-Din, head of the Federation of Egyptian Industries’ energy committee and the LPG Investors Association, says the automatic-pricing mechanism uses three main factors: international Brent prices, the dollar–pound exchange rate, and handling, transport and insurance costs. All three have risen substantially, increasing petroleum-product costs by at least 50%, he estimates.

A domestic rise of around 15% does not cover the full cost increase, he argues, and the state still provides some support. Making the budget absorb everything could create difficulties supplying petroleum products and lead to shortages.

“Price adjustments share the burden between the state and citizens during the current energy-market crisis,” Saad El-Din tells Zawia3. He expects a temporary crisis linked to regional tensions. The committee could reduce prices if oil and the dollar fall, but global changes generally take at least two months to affect domestic decisions.

Successive increases reflect the earlier gap between domestic prices and actual costs, he says. Subsidies covered much of that gap, while currency liberalization widened it as the dollar rose from around EGP 8. He argues that this does not mean subsidies have disappeared, but reflects higher international energy and import costs and the exchange rate.

On LPG cylinders, Saad El-Din gives an approximate depot-price range of EGP 200–250, with EGP 270–280 after home-delivery costs, and attributes higher prices to illegal practices. That quoted range is below the newly announced EGP 275 official household-cylinder price and should be read as his estimate rather than the new tariff.

The industrial effect depends on transport’s share in final costs, he says. A 17% fuel increase does not mean the same rise in goods: if transport represents 10% of a product’s cost, the final price might rise by only 1.5–2%. He nevertheless expects companies to adjust prices to recover higher transport and production costs, ultimately borne by consumers.

Egypt secured gas needs last year through regasification vessels and supply agreements with Algeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These measures, alongside gradually improving domestic production, reduce the likelihood of supply shortages, he argues.

Household LPG cylinders of 12.5 kilograms rose in price eleven times between 2016 and 2026, according to official data and media reports. The first increase in November 2016 was from EGP 8 to EGP 15, or 87.5%.

In June 2017 the price doubled from EGP 15 to EGP 30, before rising to EGP 50 in July 2018, an increase of 66.7%.

In July 2019 it rose from EGP 50 to EGP 65, or 30%. In December 2021 it reached EGP 70, up 7.7%, and in 2022 EGP 75, up 7.1%.

Two increases followed in 2024: from EGP 75 to EGP 100 in March, or 33.3%, and from EGP 100 to EGP 150 in September, or 50%.

In 2025 the price rose from EGP 150 to EGP 200, or 33.3%, then to EGP 225 in October, or 12.5%. The latest rise from EGP 225 to EGP 275 is approximately 22.2%.

Transport and industry feel the effects

Fuel increases were immediately followed by higher public and private transport fares in several governorates. Cairo adjusted shared-transport routes by EGP 1–3 depending on route and distance. Ordinary minibuses rose from EGP 18 to EGP 19, and air-conditioned minibuses from EGP 22 to EGP 25.

Some larger buses rose by EGP 2–3, particularly routes connecting Cairo with neighboring governorates. In Gharbia, Menoufia and Suez, authorities displayed new fares at stations, with average bus and shared-transport increases of 10–20%.

Private shared taxis and service vehicles rose by 15–20% depending on route and distance. Some internal Cairo routes increased by EGP 2–5 per trip. The white-taxi opening charge rose from EGP 11 to EGP 13 and the per-kilometer charge from EGP 5 to EGP 6.

Ride-hailing companies announced no immediate official fare increase. Usage indicators and social-media complaints nevertheless suggest indirect trip-cost increases of 10–15% as drivers absorb higher fuel costs.

Hafez El-Salmawy, professor of energy engineering at Zagazig University and former chief executive of the electricity regulator, says fuel decisions consider expected average prices over a period rather than daily prices alone, including futures expectations. The government also considers uncertainty around production stoppages and closure of Hormuz.

Those effects do not disappear as soon as a crisis ends, he says; they last until production capacity returns to normal. Global market indicators and major countries’ strategic stocks also influence assessments.

The direct effect is strongest in passenger and freight transport. Agriculture and restaurants are less directly exposed where fuel use is limited, he says. Current natural-gas increases have not yet covered energy-intensive industries such as steel, fertilizers and cement, despite more expensive imported LNG following the suspension of Israeli supplies. A gas-price increase would affect those industries more than petroleum-price changes.

“Egypt imports around 30% of its energy needs, whether oil or gas, making the economy sensitive to international prices,” El-Salmawy tells Zawia3. Some domestic production is priced through production-sharing formulas, so supplies from foreign partners are also affected by global prices, partially transmitting changes to the local market.

For prolonged crises, Egypt has previously used temporary measures such as briefly stopping cement factories and replacing gas with fuel oil to preserve energy for electricity generation, he says. A longer crisis could require more expensive gas imports while balancing citizens’ capacity to bear costs against supply stability.

Egypt is pursuing more domestically generated renewable energy and strategic oil and gas storage to reduce future shocks. These strategies take time, El-Salmawy stresses, leaving the economy exposed to energy-price shocks in the meantime.

The latest increases reflect overlapping domestic and external factors: volatile international energy markets, regional geopolitical tensions, budget considerations and subsidy-reduction policies.

The government says its decision absorbs part of the fiscal pressure and maintains domestic energy supply. Experts and economists warn that its effects on transport, production and consumer prices could generate another wave of inflation.